Determinants of Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis (1991–2023)

Abstract

Fertility dynamics hold critical importance in terms of demographic sustainability, labor market trends, and the long-term viability of social protection systems. In this study, the economic and institutional determinants of fertility rates in OECD countries for the period 1991–2023 were examined using panel data analysis techniques. First, pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects models were applied, followed by diagnostic tests specific to the panel data structure. The findings revealed the presence of cross-sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity. Therefore, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, which accounts for both issues, was employed. According to the results, unemployment was found to have a significant and negative effect on fertility. Similarly, the increase in per capita income was shown to reduce fertility, and this was associated with the rising opportunity cost of childbearing. The Women, Business and the Law Index showed a positive and significant effect on fertility, suggesting that the legal empowerment of women may facilitate fertility-related decisions. On the other hand, a high rate of female wage employment was found to reduce fertility. This study is considered to contribute to the literature through its multidimensional analytical framework and strong methodological approach and to offer important implications for policymakers.

Keywords

• Fertility rate
• Panel data analysis
• Cross-Sectional dependence
• Institutional factors
• CCEMG model

OECD Ülkelerinde Doğurganlık Oranlarının Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi (1991–2023)

Abstract

Doğurganlık dinamikleri, demografik sürdürülebilirlik, işgücü piyasası eğilimleri ve sosyal koruma sistemlerinin uzun vadeli sürdürülebilirliği açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, 1991–2023 dönemi için OECD ülkelerindeki doğurganlık oranlarını etkileyen ekonomik ve kurumsal belirleyiciler panel veri analiz teknikleriyle incelenmiştir. İlk olarak havuzlanmış OLS, sabit etkiler ve rassal etkiler modelleri uygulanmış, ardından panel veri yapısına özgü tanısal testler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular, çapraz kesit bağımlılığı ve parametre heterojenliğinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Bu nedenle, her iki sorunu da dikkate alan Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, işsizliğin doğurganlık üzerinde anlamlı ve negatif etkiye sahip olduğu sonucu elde edilmiştir. Aynı şekilde kişi başına gelirdeki artışın da doğurganlığı düşürdüğü ve bu durum çocuk sahibi olmanın artan fırsat maliyetiyle ilişkilendirilebileceğini ortaya koymuştur. Kadın, İş ve Hukuk Endeksi ise doğurganlık üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etki göstermiş ve bu durum kadınların yasal güçlenmesinin doğurganlık kararlarını kolaylaştırabileceği sonucunu doğurmuştur. Öte yandan, kadın ücretli istihdam oranının yüksekliği doğurganlığı düşürüldüğü tespit edilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın, çok boyutlu analiz çerçevesi ve güçlü metodolojik yaklaşımıyla literatüre katkı sunacağı ve politika yapıcılar için önemli çıkarımlar sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Doğurganlık hızı
• Panel veri analizi
• Kesitsel bağımlılık
• Kurumsal faktörler
• CCEMG modeli

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