Türkiye’de Jeopolitik Risk ve Turizm İlişkisi: Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 59, 327 - 347, 31.03.2023

Esra Soyu Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.53568/yyusbed.1229582

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için hayati öneme sahip olan turizm sektörü, ekonomik büyümenin itici gücüdür. Son derece hassas bir yapıya sahip olan turizm sektörünü etkileyebilecek risk faktörlerinin araştırılması önem arz etmektedir. Özellikle jeopolitik gerilimlerin merkezinde yer alan Türkiye’de, jeopolitik risk ve turizm ilişkisinin araştırılması bir gereklilik olarak karşımıza çıkmıştır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye örneğinde jeopolitik risk ve turizm arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu çalışmada 2003:02-2021:01 döneminde Türkiye’nin turist sayısı ile jeopolitik risk, brent petrol, reel efektif döviz kuru ve TÜFE arasındaki ilişki Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) nedensellik testi ve Kesirli Fourier Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, BRENT ve TÜFE değişkeninden TS değişkenine, TS değişkeninden BRENT değişkenine ve REER değişkeninden TÜFE değişkenine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca şokların kalıcı olup olmadığını test etmek için yapılan Kesirli Fourier TY nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre BRENT ve TÜFE’den TS’ye, TS’den BRENT ve TÜFE’ye doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca REER’den TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, şokların kalıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. İncelenen literatüre istinaden jeopolitik risklerin turist sayısını olumsuz etkilemesi beklenirken, Türkiye örneğinde jeopolitik risklerle turist sayısı arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jeopolitik risk, turizm, Fourier TY Nedensellik

The Relationship of Geopolitical Risk and Tourism in Turkey: Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causes Analysis

Öz

Economic growth is fueled by the tourism industry, which is crucial for emerging nations. The risk variables that can have an impact on the tourism industry, which has a very delicate structure, must be looked into. Researching the link between geopolitical risk and tourism has become necessary, especially in Turkey, where geopolitical tensions are at their highest. The study's objective is to investigate the connection between geopolitical risk and tourism in the context of Turkey. With the aid of the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality test and the Fractional Fourier Toda Yamamoto causality test, the relationship between the number of tourists, geopolitical risk, Brent oil, real effective exchange rate, and CPI in Turkey during the 2003:02-2021:01 period was examined in this study. The Fourier TY causality test revealed a causal relationship between BRENT and CPI variables and TS variables, as well as a causal relationship between TS variables and BRENT variables and a causal relationship between REER variables and CPI variables. Additionally, it can be observed that there is a causative relationship between BRENT and CPI and TS, as well as between TS and BRENT and CPI, according to the findings of the Fractional Fourier TY causality test used to determine whether the shocks are permanent. In addition, there is a one-way causality relationship from REER to CPI. The results show that the shocks are permanent. Based on the literature reviewed, while geopolitical risks are expected to negatively affect the number of tourists, no causal relationship could be found between geopolitical risks and the number of tourists in the case of Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geopolitical risk, tourism, Fourier TY causility

Kaynakça

• Acar, A. & Çetin, G. (2017). Terör ve turizm arasındaki ekonomik ilişki. Journal of Recreation and Tourism Research, 4, (Special Issue 1), 255-274.
• Akadiri, S. S., Eluwoleb, K. K., Akadiri, A. C. & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273–277.
• Alam, M. S. & Paramati, S. R. (2016). The impact of tourism on income inequality in developing economies: Does Kuznets curve hypothesis exist?. Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 111–126.
• Aly, H. Y. & Strazicich, M. C. (2000). Terrorism and tourism: Is the impact permanent or transitory?: Time series evedince from some MENA Countries. Ohio State University.
• Balli, F., Uddin, G. S. & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25, 1–9.
• Becken, S. & Lennox, J. (2012). Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices fot tourism. Tourism Management, 33(1), 133-142.
• Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. Working paper Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
• Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M. (2021). Measuring Geopolitical Risk , Working Paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, Kasım 2021.
• Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk, International Finance Discussion Papers 1222r1. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2022.1222r1.
• Chiang Lee, C., Olasehinde-Williams & Akadiri, S. S. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. Int J Tourism Res., 23, 26–38.
• Delishe, J. & Venne, S. (2005). Tourism in Canada and its various economic facets. Statistics Canada, 87, 57- 65.
• Demir, E., Díez-Esteban, J. M. & García-Gómez, C. D. (2019), The impact of geopolitical risks on cash holdings of hospitality companies: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 39, 166–174.
• Demir, E., Gözgör, G. & Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do geopolitical risks matter for inbound tourism?. Eurasian Business Review, 9, 183–191.
• Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H. & Lau, C. K. M. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23-26.
• Enders W. & Jones P. (2016). Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
• Enders, W. & Lee, J. (2012). The Flexible Fourier form and Dickey– Fuller Type Unit Root Tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
• Gazopoulou, H. (2011). Assessing the impact of terrorism on travel activity in Grece, Working Papers from Bank of Greece, 127.
• Ghosh, S. (2022). Geopolitical risk, economic growth, economic uncertainty and international inbound tourism: an Indian illustration. Review of Economics and Political Science, 7 (1), 2-21.
• Goodrich, J. N. (2002). September 11 2001 attack on America: A record of the immediate impacts and reactions in the USA travel and ourism industry. Tourism Management, 23, 573-578.
• Granger, C. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and crossspectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
• Gülcan, N. & Ceyhan, T. (2022). Jeopolitik riskin pay senedi fiyatlarına etkisinin fourier yaklaşımıyla değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye örneği. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(3), 2531-2545.
• Güvenek, B. & Alptekin, V. (2015). Turistlere yönelik terör saldırılarının turizme etkisi: Türkiye üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 17(1): 21-38.
• Hailemariam, A. & Ivanovski, K. (2021). The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism, Current Issues in Tourism, DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644, 1-8.
• Hall, C. M. & O'Sullivan, V. (1996). Tourism, political stability and violence. A. Pizam & Y. Mansfeld In Tourism, crime and international security issues, (105–121). New York, NY: Wiley.
• Inglada, V. & Rey, B. (2004). Spanish air travel and the September 11 terrorist attacks: a note. Journal of Air Transport Management, 10 (6), 441-443.
• Kazakova, A. & Kim, I. (2021). Geopolitical-Risk and Economic Policy—Uncertainty Impacts on Tourist Flows from Neighboring Countries: A Wavelet Analysis. Sustainability, 13, 13751.
• Lanouar, C. & Goaied, M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov- switching models. Tourism Management, 70, 404–418.
• Lee, C. C. & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192.
• Lee, C. C., Olasehinde-Williams, G. & Akadiri, S. S. (2020). Geopolitical risk and tourism: evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models, International Journal of Tourism Research, 23 (1).
• Lee, C., Var, T. & Blaine, T. W. (1996). Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527-512.
• Ming, Y. & Liu, N. (2020). Political uncertainty in the tourism industry: Evidence from China’s anti-corruption campaign. Current Issues in Tourism, 1–15.
• Muzindutsi, P. F. & Manaliyo, J. C. (2016). Effect of political risk shocks on tourism revenue in South Africa: Time series analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 8(2), 169-186.
• Nazlıoglu, S., Gormus, N. A., & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (reits): Gradual- shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175.
• Neacşu, M.C., Neguţ, S. & Vlăsceanu, G. (2018). The impact of geopolitical risks on tourism. Amfiteatru Economic, 20, 870-884.
• Neumayer, E. (2004). The impact of political violence on tourism: Dynamic cross-national estimation. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 259–281.
• Newbold, P. & Granger, C.W.J. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2 (2), 111- 120.
• Polat, M., Alptürk, Y. & Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), 77-84.
• Ranga, M., & Pradhan, P. (2014). Terrorism terrorizes Tourism: Indian tourism effacing myths?. International Journal of Safety and Security in Tourism, I.(5), 26-39.
• Saint Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C. & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273–277.
• Tiwari, A. K., Das, D. & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75, 323-327.
• Toda, H. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. J. Econom., 66(1), 225-250.
• TÜRSAB, (2023). Türkiye'ye gelen yabancıların yıllara ve aylara göre dağılımı (1990 - 2023).https://www.tursab.org.tr/turkiye-turizm-istatistikleri/ziyaretci-sayilari.
• Zhang, H., Jiang, Z., Gao, W. & Yang, C. (2022). Time-varying impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management Perspectives. 41, 100928.