Wheat Self-Sufficiency in Turkey: Production and Climate Change in Focus

Year 2022, , 654 - 670, 30.12.2022

Zeynep Erdoğan , Fatma Selçuk , Aliye Akgün

https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.1141592

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Abstract: Due to the fact that they can be preserved for extended periods of time and are utilized in virtually all cuisines, wheat and wheat products are the most popular grains to grow and produce. Beyond the current climate change impacts, closed national borders and growing limits for import-export products throughout the pandemic phase have caused governments to question their ability to produce enough food to meet their own needs in the short term. One of the objectives of this research is to determine what variables affect wheat self-sufficiency in Türkiye, which is one of the world's major wheat suppliers, and to develop recommendations for wheat production areas in the face of climate change's predicted impacts. With respect to Türkiye, wheat self-sufficiency data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (2000 to 2020) and regional climate change projections data from the General Directorate of Meteorology for the years 2050 and 2080 were used to identify the most significant variables, as well as the relationship between those variables and self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that wheat production is the most essential component in achieving wheat self-sufficiency and that climate change has a significant impact on wheat productivity and the areas where wheat is grown. Following this, the study concludes by detailing prospective wheat production regions in current great plain areas in the context of regional climate change projections, as well as critical policies for sustainable wheat cultivation.

Keywords

Wheat, Self-Sufficiency, Climate Change, Agricultural Land, Turkey

References

• Acar, M., & Aytüre, S. (2014). Tarım ve Tarım Politikalarının Geleceği. Bursa, Turkey: Ekin Yayınları.
• Atalan-Helicke, N. (2019). Markets and Collective Action: A Case Study of Traditional Wheat Varieties in Turkey. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 59, 13-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS402676
• Aysu, A. (2018). Buğday: Beslenme Kültürü ve Politikalar. İzmir Akdeniz Akademisi Dergisi, 4, 82-90. doi: 10.32325/iaad.2018.35
• Bayar, R. (2018). Arazi Kullanımı Açısından Türkiye’de Tarım Alanlarının Değişimi. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 16 (2), 187-200. https://doi.org/10.1501/Cogbil_0000000197
• Bayramoğlu, Z. (2010). Tarımsal Verimlilik ve Önemi. Selcuk Tarım ve Gıda Bilimleri Dergisi, 24 (3), 52-61.
• Bayraç, H., & Doğan, E. (2016). Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü Üzerine Etkileri. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11 (1), 23-48.
• Cattaneo, A., Sanchez, MV., Torero, M., & Vos, R. (2020). Reducing Food Loss and Waste: Five Challenges for Policy and Research. Food Policy, 98, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101974
• Clapp, J. (2017). Food Self-sufficiency: Making Sense of It, and When It Makes Sense. Food Policy, 66, 88-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.12.001
• Çelik, N. (2000). Tarımda Girdi Kullanımı ve Verimliliğe Etkileri. Uzmanlık Tezi. DPT: 2521, Ankara, Turkey.
• Chenarides, L., Grebitus, C., Lusk, JL., & Printezis, I. (2020). Food Consumption Behaviour during the Covid-19 Pandemic. Agribusiness, 37 (1), 44-81. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21679
• Dellal, İ., & Unuvar, İ.F. (2019). Effect of Climate Change on Food Supply of Turkey. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 20 (2), 692-700.
• Dellal, İ., McCarl, B.A., & Butt, T. (2011). The Economic Assessment of Climate Change on Turkish Agriculture. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 12 (1), 374-385.
• Demirdöğen, A., Olhan, E., & Chavas, J.P. (2016). Food vs. Fiber: An Analysis of Agricultural Support Policy in Turkey. Food Policy, 61: 1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.12.013
• Demirbaş, N., & Atış, E. (2005). Türkiye Tarımında Gıda Güvencesi Sorununun Buğday Örneğinde İrdelenmesi. Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 42 (1), 179-190.
• Demirbaş, N., Niyaz, O.C., & Apaydın, Y.M. (2017). An Evaluation on Problems within the Food Supply Chain in Turkey in Terms of Food Losses and Waste. Paper presented in: 3th International Balkan and Near Eastern Social Sciences Conference Series, Edirne, Turkey.
• Demirbaş, N. (2018). Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Gıda İsrafını Önleme Çalışmalarının Değerlendirilmesi. Paper presented in: VIII. IBANESS Congress Series, Plovdiv: Bulgaria, Available at: http://www.ibaness.org/conferences/plovdiv_2/ibaness_plovdiv_proceedings_draft_10.pdf Access date: 24.12.2020.
• Demirbaş, N. (2019). İyi Tarım Uygulamalari ve Meyve Bahçelerinde Ortaya Çıkan Üretim, Hasat ve Hasat Sonrası Kayıpları Azaltabilir mi? Paper presented in: XII. IBANESS Congress Series on Economics, Business and Management. Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
• EIT Food, (2020). Covid-19 Study: European Food Behaviours: Covid-19 Impact on Consumer Food Behaviours in Europe. https://www.eitfood.eu/media/news-pdf/COVID-19_Study_-_European_Food_Behaviours_-_Report.pdf Access date: 08.03.2021.
• Erçakar, M.E., & Taşçı, M. (2011). Tarım Ürünlerinde Verimlilik-Fiyat İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Uygulama. Electronic Journal of Social Science, 10 (36): 171-186 https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/70272 Access date: 08.06.2022.
• Eruygur, H.O., & Özokcu, S. (2016). Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Buğday Verimi Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Heterojen Panel Çalışması. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 27 (101): 19-255.
• FAO, (1983). Policy Brief 2006- Food Security. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/faoitaly/documents/pdf/pdf_Food_Security_Cocept_Note.pdf Access date: 08.03.2021.
• FAO, (1999). Implications of Economic Policy for Food Security: A Training Manual. Available at : http://www.fao.org/3/x3936e/x3936e03.htm Access date:19.02.21.
• FAO, (2006). Food Security Policy Brief. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/faoitaly/documents/pdf/pdf_Food_Security_Cocept_Note.pdf Access date: 08.03.2021.
• FAO, (2009). Declaration of the World Food Summit on Food Security (PDF). Rome. FAO, (2011). Global Food Losses and Food Waste-Extent, Causes and Prevention. Rome. http://www.fao.org/3/mb060e/mb060e.pdf Access date: 08.03.2021.
• FAO, (2013). Report of the Expert Consultation Meeting on Food Losses and Waste Reduction in the Near East Region: Towards A Regional Comprehensive Strategy. Egypt, 33.
• FAO, (2015). News. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/275009/icode/ Access date: 08.03.2021.
• FAO, (2016). The State of Food and Agriculture- Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. Rome. https://www.fao.org/3/i6030e/i6030e.pdf Access date: 08.06.2021. FAO, (2018). Save Food: Global: Global Initiative on Food Loss and Waste Reduction.
• FAO, (2019). The State of Food and Agriculture, Moving Forward on Food Loss and Waste Reduction. Rome. http://www.fao.org/3/ca6030en/ca6030en.pdf Access date: 08.03.2021. FAO, (2020). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): addressing the impacts of COVID-19 in food crises, http://www.fao.org/3/ca8497en/ca8497en.pdf . Access date: 20.04.2021.
• FAO, (2020a). Food Loss and Food Waste. http://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/flw-data)#:~:text=Initial%20estimates%20of%20the%20FLI,the%20retail%20and%20consumption%20levels. Access date: 08.03.2021. FAO, (2020b). FAO in Turkey. http://www.fao.org/turkey/fao-in-turkey/turkey-at-a-glance/en/ Access date: 03.04.2021.
• FAO, (2021). Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/ Access date: 12.04.2021.
• FAOSTAT, (2021). Crops Data. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL/visualize Access date: 10.12.2021.
• Gülçubuk, B. (2020). Covid-19 Sonrasinda Tarim Politikalarinin Geleceği, Istanbul Politik Araştirmalar Enstitüsü, Politika Raporu. FriedRich-Eberth-Stiftung: Temmuz: 012.
• Grashuis, J., Skevas, T., & Segovia, M.S. (2020). Grocery Shopping Preferences During the Covid-19 Pandemic. Sustainability, 12, 5369, doi:10.3390/su12135369
• IPCC, (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C. Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.
• Ipsos, Turkey (2020). How Coronavirus Affects Spending of the Fast Moving Consumer Goods. https://www.ipsos.com/tr-tr/koronavirus-hane-ici-hizli-tuketim-urunleri-harcamalarina-nasil-etki-ediyor Access date: 08.03.2021.
• Karapınar, D., Özertan, P., Tanaka, D., An, N., & Turp, M.T. (2020). İklim Değişikliği Etkisi Altında Tarımsal Ürün Arzının Sürdürülebilirliği. 1.5. İklim değişikliği ve Tarım: Etkiler, Risk ve Kırılganlıklar. İstanbul, Turkey: TÜSİAD.
• Keding, G.B., Schneider, K., & Jordan, I. (2013). Production and Processing of Foods as Core Aspects of Nutrition-Sensitive Agriculture and Sustainable Diets. Food Security, 5 (6), 825-846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-013-0312-6
• Kruse, J. (2010). Estimating Demand for Agricultural Commodities to 2050. Global Harvest Initiative. https://pdf4pro.com/view/estimating-demand-for-agricultural-commodities-132658.html Access date: 28.12.2020.
• KTB, (2016). Karaman'da Buğday, Mısır, Ayçiçeği Tarımı ve Üretimi. Karaman, Turkey.
• Laguna, L., Fiszman, S., Puerta, P., Chaya, C., & Tárrega, A. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Food Priorities. Results from a Preliminary Study Using Social Media and an Online Survey with Spanish Consumers. Food Qual Prefer, 86: 104028. doi: 10.1016/j.foodqual.2020.104028
• Laborde, D., Martin, W., Swinnen, J., & Vos, R. (2020). Covid-19 Risks to Global Food Security. Science, 369 (6503), 500-502. doi: 10.1126/science.abc4765
• Maslow, A.H. (1943). A Theory of Human Motivation. Psychological Review, 50 (4), 370–396. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0054346
• Margulies, R., & Yıldızoğlu, E. (1990). “Tarımsal Değişim: 1923-70”, Geçiş Sürecinde Türkiye içinde, Der: Schick IC, Tonak EA, İstanbul, Turkey: Belge Yayınları-544, pp. 285-309.
• Mentz, D., & Slater, H. (1999). International Agricultural Research: A Fertile Field for Global Progress. Development Bulletin, 49, Australia: Development Studies Network Ltd., pp. 59-61.
• Nchanji, E.B., & Lutomia, C.K. (2021). Regional Impact of COVID-19 on the Production and Food Security of Common Bean Smallholder Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implication for SDG's. Global Food Security, 29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100524.
• Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., Agha, M., & Agha, R. (2020). The Socio-Economic İmplications of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19): A Review. International Journal of Surgery, 78: 185–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018
• OECD, (2021). OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020 2029.
• Özdinç, H.K. (2010). Tarımda Kamu Poli̇ti̇kalarının Başlangıcı: "Buğday Meselesi̇", 1932-1945. Abant Izzet Baysal University- Journal of Social Sciences, 1 (20), 1-12 296.
• Permanandh, J. (2011). Factors Affecting Food Security and Contribution of Modern Technologies in Food Sustainability. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 91 (15), 2707-2714. doi:10.1002/jsfa.4666
• Prusky, D. (2011). Reduction of the Incidence of Post-Harvest Quality Losses, and Future Prospects. Food Security, 3 (4), 463-474. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0147-y
• Silier, O. (1981). Türkiye’de Tarımsal Yapının Gelişimi (1923-1938). İstanbul, Turkey: Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Yayını.
• Soltani, A., Alimagham, S.M., Nehbandani, A., Torabi, B., Zeinali, E., Zand, E., Vadez, V., van Loon, M.P., & van Ittersum, M.K. (2020). Future Food Self-Sufficiency in Iran: A model-based Analysis. Global Food Security, 24: 100351, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100351.
• Suresh, A. (2019). What is the Chi-square Test and How Does it Work? An Intuitive Explanation with R Code. https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/11/what-is-chi-square-test-how-it-works/ Access date: 03.04.2021.
• Tatlıdil, F.F., Dellal, İ., & Bayramoğlu, Z. (2013). Food Losses and Waste in Turkey. FAO: 67.
• TEPGE, (2021). Tarım Ürünleri Piyasaları, Buğday. https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Belgeler/PDF%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1/2021-Ocak%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Raporu/Bu%C4%9Fday,%20Ocak%202021,%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasa%20Raporu.pdf Access date: 03.04.2021.
• TR2015-CC (2015). Yeni Senaryolar ile Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü, Turkey: Ankara. https://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/iklim-degisikligi-projeksiyon2015.pdf Access date: 08.04.2021.
• Trewin, R. (1999). Impacts of the Asian Crisis and the Political Economy on Agriculture's Role in Developing Economies. Development Bulletin, 49, Australia: Development Studies Network Ltd., pp. 5-8.
• Tuğay, M.E. (2012). Türk Tarımında Bitkisel Üretimi Artırma Yolları. Tarım Bilimleri Araştırma Dergisi, 5 (1), 1-8.
• TMO, (2020). 2019 yılı Hububat Sektör Raporu. https://www.tmo.gov.tr/Upload/Document/sektorraporlari/hububat2019.pdf Access date: 08.03.2021.
• TGDF, (2020). Dış Ticaret Verileri. https://www.tgdf.org.tr/turkiye-gida-ve-icecek-sektorleri-dis-ticaret-verileri/ Access date: 08.03.2021.
• TURKSTAT, (2008). Turkish Statistical Institute- Crop Products Balance Sheets 2005/06-2006/07. Turkish Statistical Institute Printing Division, Ankara.
• TURKSTAT, (2021). Turkish Statistical Institute Cereals and Crop Production Statistics.
• TURKSTAT, (2021a). Turkish Statistical Institute Wheat Self-Sufficiency Bulletin.
• UPENN, (2008). University of Pennsylvania, School of Arts and Sciences, Tutorial: Pearson's Chi-square Test for Independence. https://www.ling.upenn.edu/~clight/chisquared.htm#:~:text=The%20Chi%2Dsquare%20test%20is,if%20the%20variables%20are%20independent. Access date: 03.04.2021.
• USDA, (2021). Agricultural Export Yearbook. https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/Yearbook-2021-Final.pdf Access date: 08.06.2022.
• UN, (1948). The United Nations the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
• WHO, (2019). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. https://www.who.int/nutrition/publications/foodsecurity/state-food-security-nutrition-2019-en.pdf?ua=1 Access date: 08.03.2021.
• WHO, (2021). Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) Dashboard, https://covid19.who.int/ Access date: 23.02.2021.
• Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J. L., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., Peng, S., … & Asseng, S. (2017). Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(35), 9326–9331. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114.