Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey

Abstract

This paper aimed to develop forecasting models and to assess the trends in the production of freshwater crayfish in Turkey. Different trend analysis methods (Box-Jenkins method, Şen’s innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test) were compared, and different autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were generated to forecast the future trend. The results of the innovative trend analysis methodology and ARIMA models revealed that freshwater crayfish production has a decreasing trend during the study period, although there are some fluctuations. ARIMA models predicted that the production of freshwater crayfish would continue to decrease in the future period. The present paper is also the most temporally rich assessment of the crayfish production in Turkey encompassing 100+ years from 1909 to 2018. Several factors such as climate change, overexploitation, diseases, legal regulations, and fisheries management policies might affect the production amount. Therefore, appropriate policies for fisheries management and legal regulations should be planned and implemented to improve the production.

Keywords

• Freshwater crayfish
• Production
• Forecast
• Trend analysis

Türkiye’deki Kerevit (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) Üretimi İçin Trend Analizi ve Tahmin Modellerinin Karşılaştırılması

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’deki kerevit üretiminin eğilimlerini değerlendirmek ve geleceğe yönelik tahmin modelleri geliştirmektir. Farklı trend analizi yöntemleri (Mann-Kendall testi, Şen’in yenilikçi trend analizi, Box-Jenkins yöntemi) karşılaştırılmış ve gelecekteki eğilimlerin tahmin edilmesi için farklı otoregresif bütünleşik hareketli ortalama (ARIMA) modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Yenilikçi trend analizi metodolojisinin ve ARIMA modellerinin sonuçları çalışma periyodu boyunca dalgalanmalar olmasına rağmen kerevit üretiminin azalan bir eğilime sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. ARIMA modelleri kerevit üretiminin gelecek dönemlerde azalmaya devam edeceğini tahmin etmektedir. Ayrıca, bu çalışma Türkiye’deki kerevit üretiminin zamansal olarak 1909 ile 2018 yılları arasındaki 100 yıldan fazla süreyi kapsayan en geniş değerlendirmesini sunmaktadır. Aşırı avcılık, hastalıklar, iklim değişikliği, yasal düzenlemeler ve balıkçılık yönetimi politikaları gibi birçok faktör üretim miktarını etkileyebilmektedir. Dolayısıyla, üretimin geliştirilmesi için uygun balıkçılık yönetimi politikaları ile yasal düzenlemeler planlanmalı ve uygulanmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kerevit
• Üretim
• Tahmin
• Trend analizi

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