Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey
Türkiye’deki Kerevit (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) Üretimi İçin Trend Analizi ve Tahmin Modellerinin Karşılaştırılması

Semih KALE [1] , Selçuk BERBER [2]


This paper aimed to develop forecasting models and to assess the trends in the production of freshwater crayfish in Turkey. Different trend analysis methods (Box-Jenkins method, Şen’s innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test) were compared, and different autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were generated to forecast the future trend. The results of the innovative trend analysis methodology and ARIMA models revealed that freshwater crayfish production has a decreasing trend during the study period, although there are some fluctuations. ARIMA models predicted that the production of freshwater crayfish would continue to decrease in the future period. The present paper is also the most temporally rich assessment of the crayfish production in Turkey encompassing 100+ years from 1909 to 2018. Several factors such as climate change, overexploitation, diseases, legal regulations, and fisheries management policies might affect the production amount. Therefore, appropriate policies for fisheries management and legal regulations should be planned and implemented to improve the production.
Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’deki kerevit üretiminin eğilimlerini değerlendirmek ve geleceğe yönelik tahmin modelleri geliştirmektir. Farklı trend analizi yöntemleri (Mann-Kendall testi, Şen’in yenilikçi trend analizi, Box-Jenkins yöntemi) karşılaştırılmış ve gelecekteki eğilimlerin tahmin edilmesi için farklı otoregresif bütünleşik hareketli ortalama (ARIMA) modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Yenilikçi trend analizi metodolojisinin ve ARIMA modellerinin sonuçları çalışma periyodu boyunca dalgalanmalar olmasına rağmen kerevit üretiminin azalan bir eğilime sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. ARIMA modelleri kerevit üretiminin gelecek dönemlerde azalmaya devam edeceğini tahmin etmektedir. Ayrıca, bu çalışma Türkiye’deki kerevit üretiminin zamansal olarak 1909 ile 2018 yılları arasındaki 100 yıldan fazla süreyi kapsayan en geniş değerlendirmesini sunmaktadır. Aşırı avcılık, hastalıklar, iklim değişikliği, yasal düzenlemeler ve balıkçılık yönetimi politikaları gibi birçok faktör üretim miktarını etkileyebilmektedir. Dolayısıyla, üretimin geliştirilmesi için uygun balıkçılık yönetimi politikaları ile yasal düzenlemeler planlanmalı ve uygulanmalıdır.
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Primary Language en
Subjects Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Published Date Aralık 2020
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-5705-6935
Author: Semih KALE (Primary Author)
Institution: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Department of Fishing and Fish Processing Technology, Çanakkale, Turkey
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0003-1123-7217
Author: Selçuk BERBER
Institution: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology, Department of Fishing and Fish Processing Technology, 17020, Çanakkale, Turkey
Country: Turkey


Thanks The authors would like to thank all staff of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for the efforts in data collecting and making them available.
Dates

Publication Date : December 31, 2020

Bibtex @research article { yyutbd761275, journal = {Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi}, issn = {1308-7576}, eissn = {1308-7584}, address = {}, publisher = {Yuzuncu Yil University}, year = {2020}, volume = {30}, pages = {973 - 988}, doi = {10.29133/yyutbd.761275}, title = {Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey}, key = {cite}, author = {Kale, Semih and Berber, Selçuk} }
APA Kale, S , Berber, S . (2020). Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey . Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi , Volume:30 Issue: Additional issue , 973-988 . DOI: 10.29133/yyutbd.761275
MLA Kale, S , Berber, S . "Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey" . Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi 30 (2020 ): 973-988 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/yyutbd/issue/59373/761275>
Chicago Kale, S , Berber, S . "Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey". Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi 30 (2020 ): 973-988
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey AU - Semih Kale , Selçuk Berber Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.29133/yyutbd.761275 DO - 10.29133/yyutbd.761275 T2 - Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 973 EP - 988 VL - 30 IS - Ek sayı (Additional issue) SN - 1308-7576-1308-7584 M3 - doi: 10.29133/yyutbd.761275 UR - https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.761275 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey %A Semih Kale , Selçuk Berber %T Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey %D 2020 %J Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi %P 1308-7576-1308-7584 %V 30 %N Ek sayı (Additional issue) %R doi: 10.29133/yyutbd.761275 %U 10.29133/yyutbd.761275
ISNAD Kale, Semih , Berber, Selçuk . "Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey". Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi 30 / Ek sayı (Additional issue) (December 2020): 973-988 . https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.761275
AMA Kale S , Berber S . Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey. YYÜ TAR BİL DERG. 2020; 30(Ek sayı (Additional issue)): 973-988.
Vancouver Kale S , Berber S . Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey. Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi. 2020; 30(Ek sayı (Additional issue)): 973-988.
IEEE S. Kale and S. Berber , "Trend Analysis and Comparison of Forecast Models for Production of Turkish Crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus Eschscholtz, 1823) in Turkey", Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 30, no. Ek sayı (Additional issue), pp. 973-988, Dec. 2021, doi:10.29133/yyutbd.761275