Araştırma Makalesi
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Türkiye’nin Sıcak ve Soğuk Ekstremlerindeki Uzun Süreli Değişimler

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 37, 57 - 67, 25.12.2018

Öz

Ekstrem sıcak havalar, dünyanın her yerindeki hava koşullarına bağlı afetlerin önde başta gelen nedenidir. Soğuk ya da sıcak havanın tetikleyici etkisiyle birçok insan her yıl hayatını kaybetmektedir. Aşırı günler genellikle, anormal derecede soğuk veya sıcak hava koşullarının olduğu birkaç günlük bir süre olarak tanımlanır. Bu günlerin frekansındaki artış, ölüme ve afetlere yol açabilmektedir.
Bu çalışmada minimum ve maksimum sıcaklık verileri için tanımlanan ekstrem sıcaklık olaylarının değişkenliği analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye’deki her bir istasyondaki günlük minimum ve maksimum hava sıcaklığı verileri, her istasyonda persantil eşik değerlerini (99’ncı, 95’nci ve 1’nci, 5’nci) belirlemek için analiz edilmiştir. Ekstrem değerlerdeki değişkenliği analiz etmek için Mann-Kendall trend analizi ve küme analizi olmak üzere iki istatistiksel test uygulanmıştır.
Mann-Kendall analizi, sıcak ve aşırı sıcak günlerin sıklığında bir artış olduğunu gösterirken, soğuk ve aşırı soğuk günler Türkiye’de azalan bir eğilim göstermektedir. Ekstrem soğuk günler, sırasıyla 1972, 1983, 1992 ve 1993 yıllarında en fazla yaşanmıştır. 2005’ten sonra ekstrem soğuk günler azalmaya başlamıştır. Ekstrem sıcak günlerin sıklığı 2000 yılından sonra artmıştır. Özellikle 2010 yılı, çalışma periyodu boyunca Türkiye’nin en sıcak yılı olarak kayıtlara geçmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Acar Deniz, Z., & Gönençgil, B. (2015). Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey. Physical Geography, 36(4), 268–281.
  • Barbosa, S. M., Scotto, M. G., & Alonso, A. M. (2011). Summarising changes in air temperature over Central Europe by quantile regression and clustering. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 3227–3233.
  • Beniston, M., Stephenson, D.B., Christensen, O.B., Ferro, C.A.T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., ... Woth, K. (2007). Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 81 (Supp. 1), 71-95. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z
  • Bindoff, N.L., P.A. Stott, K.M. AchutaRao, M.R. Allen, N. Gillett, D. Gutzler, … X. Zhang. (2013). Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
  • El Kenawy, A. E., Lopez-Moreno, J. I., & Vicente-Serrano, S. M. (2013). Summer temperature extremes in Northeastern Spain: Spatial regionalization and links to atmospheric circulation (1960-2006). Theoretical & Applied Climatology, 113(3–4), 387–405.
  • Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., & Mearns, L. O. (2000). Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 2068–2074.
  • Erlat, E., & Türkeş, M. (2015). Türkiye rekor maksimum ve minimum hava sıcaklıklarının frekanslarında 1950-2014 döneminde gözlenen değişmeler ve atmosfer koşullarıyla bağlantıları [Observed changes in the frequencies of record maximum and record minimum air temperatures in Turkey during the period 1950-2014 and their connections with atmospheric conditions]. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 24(2), 29–55.
  • Feidas, H., Makrogiannis, T., & Bora-Senta, E. (2004). Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955-2001. Theorical and Applied Climatology, 79, 185–208.
  • Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Peterson, T. (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19, 193–212.
  • Gönençgil, B., Acar Deniz, Z., & Mestav, B. (2016). Frost and ice days in Turkey. The International Geographical Union 2016, No:2860170.
  • Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Stott, P. A., & Kharin, V. V. (2004). Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 17, 3683–3700.
  • Herting, E., Seubert, S., & Jacobeit, J. (2010). Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 2039–2050.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland:Author
  • Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin Book Series, Oxford University Press.
  • Maheras, P., Patrikas, I., Karakostas, Th., & Anagnostopoulou, Ch. (2000). Automatic classification of circulation types in Greece: Methodology, description, frequency, variability and trend analysis. Theorical and Applied Climatology 67, 205–223.
  • Maheras, P., Xoplaki, E., & Kutiel, H. (1999). Wet and dry monthly anomalies across the Mediterranean basin and their relationship with circulation, 1860–1990. Theorical and Applied Climatology, 64, 189–199.
  • Mann, H.B. (1945). Non-parametric test against trend. Econometrika, 13, 245-259.
  • Ozdamar, K. (2002). Paket programlar ile istatistiksel veri analizi [Statistical data analysis with packet programs]. Eskişehir, Turkey:Kaan Kitabevi.
  • Xoplaki, E., Luterbaacter, J., Burkard, R., Patrikas, I., & Maheras, P. (2000). Connection between the large-scale 500 hPa geopotential height fields and precipitation over Greece during wintertime. Climate Research, 14, 129 –146.

Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 37, 57 - 67, 25.12.2018

Öz

Extreme weathers are the leading cause of weather-related disasters all over the world. Many people lose their lives each year due to the triggering effect of cold or hot weather. The extreme days are generally defined as a period of several days of abnormally cold or hot weather. Increased frequency of these days could lead to death and disasters. 
This study analyzes the variability of minimum and maximum temperature defined anomalous temperature events. Daily minimum and maximum air temperature data from 156 weather stations in Turkey are analyzed to determine percentile threshold values (99th, 95th and 1st, 5th) at each station. Two statistical tests are applied to analyze trend in extreme values, namely Mann-Kendall trend analysis and cluster analysis.
The Mann-.Kendall analysis demonstrates an increase in frequency of hot and extremely hot days, whereas cold and extremely cold days show a decreasing trend in Turkey. The extreme cold days have been the highest of the year 1972, 1983, 1992 and 1993, respectively. After 2005, extreme cold days begin to decrease. The frequency of extreme hot day has increased since 2000. Especially in 2010, it has been the warmest year in Turkey from the records of the stations during the study period.

Kaynakça

  • Acar Deniz, Z., & Gönençgil, B. (2015). Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey. Physical Geography, 36(4), 268–281.
  • Barbosa, S. M., Scotto, M. G., & Alonso, A. M. (2011). Summarising changes in air temperature over Central Europe by quantile regression and clustering. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 3227–3233.
  • Beniston, M., Stephenson, D.B., Christensen, O.B., Ferro, C.A.T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., ... Woth, K. (2007). Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 81 (Supp. 1), 71-95. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z
  • Bindoff, N.L., P.A. Stott, K.M. AchutaRao, M.R. Allen, N. Gillett, D. Gutzler, … X. Zhang. (2013). Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
  • El Kenawy, A. E., Lopez-Moreno, J. I., & Vicente-Serrano, S. M. (2013). Summer temperature extremes in Northeastern Spain: Spatial regionalization and links to atmospheric circulation (1960-2006). Theoretical & Applied Climatology, 113(3–4), 387–405.
  • Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., & Mearns, L. O. (2000). Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 2068–2074.
  • Erlat, E., & Türkeş, M. (2015). Türkiye rekor maksimum ve minimum hava sıcaklıklarının frekanslarında 1950-2014 döneminde gözlenen değişmeler ve atmosfer koşullarıyla bağlantıları [Observed changes in the frequencies of record maximum and record minimum air temperatures in Turkey during the period 1950-2014 and their connections with atmospheric conditions]. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 24(2), 29–55.
  • Feidas, H., Makrogiannis, T., & Bora-Senta, E. (2004). Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955-2001. Theorical and Applied Climatology, 79, 185–208.
  • Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Peterson, T. (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19, 193–212.
  • Gönençgil, B., Acar Deniz, Z., & Mestav, B. (2016). Frost and ice days in Turkey. The International Geographical Union 2016, No:2860170.
  • Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Stott, P. A., & Kharin, V. V. (2004). Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 17, 3683–3700.
  • Herting, E., Seubert, S., & Jacobeit, J. (2010). Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 2039–2050.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland:Author
  • Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin Book Series, Oxford University Press.
  • Maheras, P., Patrikas, I., Karakostas, Th., & Anagnostopoulou, Ch. (2000). Automatic classification of circulation types in Greece: Methodology, description, frequency, variability and trend analysis. Theorical and Applied Climatology 67, 205–223.
  • Maheras, P., Xoplaki, E., & Kutiel, H. (1999). Wet and dry monthly anomalies across the Mediterranean basin and their relationship with circulation, 1860–1990. Theorical and Applied Climatology, 64, 189–199.
  • Mann, H.B. (1945). Non-parametric test against trend. Econometrika, 13, 245-259.
  • Ozdamar, K. (2002). Paket programlar ile istatistiksel veri analizi [Statistical data analysis with packet programs]. Eskişehir, Turkey:Kaan Kitabevi.
  • Xoplaki, E., Luterbaacter, J., Burkard, R., Patrikas, I., & Maheras, P. (2000). Connection between the large-scale 500 hPa geopotential height fields and precipitation over Greece during wintertime. Climate Research, 14, 129 –146.
Toplam 19 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Zahide Acar

Barbaros Gönençgil Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-6535-4481

Nebile Korucu Gümüşoğlu Bu kişi benim 0000-0003-3308-4362

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Aralık 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Ekim 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Sayı: 37

Kaynak Göster

APA Acar, Z., Gönençgil, B., & Korucu Gümüşoğlu, N. (2018). Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Coğrafya Dergisi(37), 57-67.
AMA Acar Z, Gönençgil B, Korucu Gümüşoğlu N. Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Coğrafya Dergisi. Aralık 2018;(37):57-67.
Chicago Acar, Zahide, Barbaros Gönençgil, ve Nebile Korucu Gümüşoğlu. “Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey”. Coğrafya Dergisi, sy. 37 (Aralık 2018): 57-67.
EndNote Acar Z, Gönençgil B, Korucu Gümüşoğlu N (01 Aralık 2018) Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Coğrafya Dergisi 37 57–67.
IEEE Z. Acar, B. Gönençgil, ve N. Korucu Gümüşoğlu, “Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey”, Coğrafya Dergisi, sy. 37, ss. 57–67, Aralık 2018.
ISNAD Acar, Zahide vd. “Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey”. Coğrafya Dergisi 37 (Aralık 2018), 57-67.
JAMA Acar Z, Gönençgil B, Korucu Gümüşoğlu N. Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Coğrafya Dergisi. 2018;:57–67.
MLA Acar, Zahide vd. “Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey”. Coğrafya Dergisi, sy. 37, 2018, ss. 57-67.
Vancouver Acar Z, Gönençgil B, Korucu Gümüşoğlu N. Long-Term Changes in Hot and Cold Extremes in Turkey. Coğrafya Dergisi. 2018(37):57-6.