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Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi Uygulama Sürecinin Analizi: 2002-2016 Yılları Örneklemi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 4, 93 - 105, 18.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.457200

Öz

Ekonomi politikalarının nihai amacı ekonomik refahı arttırabilmektir. Ekonomik refahın arttırılabilmesi
gerekli olan temel unsurlardan biriside
sürdürülebilir
yümenin
sağlanabilmesidir. Bunun gerçekleştirilebilmesi
ekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasıyla mümndür. Ekonomik istikrarın ön koşulu ise fiyat istikrarıdır.
21. yüzyılda, merkez bankalarının yaşadığı en önemli sorunlardan birisi ekonomik
istikrarı sağlayabilmek için para
politikasında hangi stratejinin izlenmesi gerektiğidir.
Enflasyon, ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal yapıyı tahrip eden ciddi bir sorundur.
Ülkeler tarihsel süreçte, yıllarca bu sorunla cadele etmeye çaşmışlar ve sürekli fark stratejiler geliştirmişlerdir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi, 1990’lardan sonra popüler
hale gelen bir stratejidir.
Bu strateji resmi olarak ilk kez 1990 yılında
Yeni Zelanda tarafından uygulanmaya başlamıştır
. Türkiye yaklaşık
30 yıllık bir süreçte sürekli
yüksek ve kronik enflasyon sorunuyla yani fiyat istikrarsızlığıyla cadele etmek zorunda kalmış ve bu amaçla pek çok istikrar programı
uygulamıştır. Enflasyon
Hedeflemesi Stratejisinin gerek gelişmiş gerekse gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki uygulama sonuçlarının
olumlu olması TCMByi etkilem ve banka 2002 yılı bında para politikasında nihai hedefinin
enflasyon hedeflemesine
geçmek olduğunu açıklamıştır. Bu çalışmada önce enflasyon hedeflemesinin
kavramsal ve teorik çerçevesi anlatılmış daha sonra Türkiye’deki uygulama
süreci çoklu regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir.


The ultimate goal of economic policies can increase economic welfare. One
of the essential elements that can increase economic prosperity is to ensure
sustainable growth. This can only be achieved if economic stability is
achieved. Prerequisite of economic stability is price stability. In the 21st
century, one of the most important problems that central banks face is which
strategy should be monitored in monetary policy to ensure economic stability. Inflation
is a serious problem that destroys economic, social and political construction.
Throughout history, countries have tried to combat this problem for years and
have constantly developed different strategies. Inflation targeting is a
strategy that has become popular after the 1990s. His strategy officially began
to be implemented by New Zealand in 1990 for the first time. Turkey has been
forced to struggle with constant high and chronic inflation problems, that is,
price instability in a period of nearly 30 years and has implemented many
stabilization programs for this purpose. As the Inflation Targeting Strategy
both developed and developing countries have positive effects on CBRT, the bank
announced in early 2002 that its ultimate goal in monetary policy was to move
towards inflation targeting. Turkey has been implementing this strategy since
2002. In this study, the conceptual and theoretical framework of inflation targeting
is
explained than the application process in Turkey were
examined by multiple regression analysis.

Kaynakça

  • ALBERT, P., BRİGHT ADDİYİAH, O., ve CHARLES, B. (2014), Effects of Inflation Targeting Policyon Inflation Rates and Gross Domestic Product in Ghana, European Journal of Business and Management, 54-60.
  • ALPARSLAN, M., ve ATAMAN ERDÖNMEZ, P. (2000), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Bankacılar Dergisi, Aralık, Sayı 35.
  • BATİNİ, N., ve LAXTON, D. (2006) Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experienve of Emerging Markets, Working Papers, No.406, Central Bank of Chile, December, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu
  • BEN ROMDHANE, I. B., ve MEMSİ, S. (2014), Assessing the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting: Evidence from OECD Economies, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.60108, November , https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
  • CARARE, A., SCHAECHTER, A., STONE, M., ve ZELMER, M. (2002), Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/102, June, https://papers.ssrn.com.
  • CARRASCO, C. A. (2011), Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico, Panoeconomicus, ss.675-692, DOI: 10.2298/PAN1105675C.
  • CROCE, E., ve KHAN, M. S. (2000), Monetary Regimes and Inflation Targeting, Finance and Development, September, Volume 37, No.3
  • DA SİLVA, M. E. A., ve PORTUGAL, M. S. (2002), Inflation Targeting in Brazil: An Empirical Evaluation, Revista de Economia, 9,2, ss.85-122.
  • DEBELLE, G., MASSON, P., SAVASTANO, M., ve SHARMA, S. (1998), Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy, IMF, Economic Issues No.15 October.
  • EESEL, H., ve ÖZATAY, F. (2008) Inflation Targeting in Turkey, Working Paper 445, October, https://econpapers.repec.org .
  • GENC, I. H., LEE, M., RODRİGUEZ, C. O., ve LUTZ, Z. (2007) Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol.10, No.1, ss15-27, February, https://www.tandfonline.com.
  • GOSSELİN, M. A. (2007) Central Bank Performance Under Inflation Targeting, Bank Of Canada, Staff Working Paper / Document de Travil 2007-18, ISSN 1701-9397, March, https://www.bankofcanada.ca.
  • IMF (2002), Macroeconomic Management Programs and Policies; Inflation Targeting, Scarlata J. (April 19).
  • JENDOUBI, H. (2016), Inflation Targeting and Macro-Economic Performance: The Case of Emerging Countries, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, Vol.4, No.2, ss.61-74, ISSN: 2334-2382 (Print), 2334-2390 (Online).
  • KARTAL, F. (2011), Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi ve Para Politikasının Görünümü, Nisan, Yıl 25(91), http://dergipark.gov.tr
  • KASA, K. (2001), Will Inflation Targeting Work in Developing Countries?, FRBSF Economic Letter, Jenuary, https://www.frbsf.org
  • LEVİN, A. T., NATALUCCİ, F. M., ve PİGER, J. M. (2004), The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review, July-August, 86,4,ss.51-80
  • MASSON PAUL, R., SAVASTANO, M. A., ve SHARMA, S. (1997) The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/130, October, http://www.imf.org.
  • MİSHKİN, F. S. (1999), International Experiences With Different Monetary Pılicy Regimes, Journal of Monetary Economics, No.43.
  • MİSHKİN, F. S., ve SAVASTANO, M. A. (2000), Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America, NBER Working Paper No. 7617, Marc, http://www.nber.org
  • ÖZATAY, F. (2009), Türkiye’de 2000-2008 döneminde para politikası, İktisat İşletme ve Finans 24 (275) 2009 : 37-65, February, DOI: 10.3848/iif.2009.275.1974
  • ÖZTÜRK, S. (2009), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Yaklaşımı: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Cilt:16, Sayı:1 Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Manisa
  • PETURSSON, T. G. (2004), The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper, No.23, June, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org
  • SVENSSON, L. E. O. (2007), Inflation Targeting, CEPS Working Paper No.144, May, Princeton University.
  • TCMB (2004), 2005 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası, Sayı: 2004-59, Ankara, Aralık, http://tcmb.gov.tr
  • TCMB (2005), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminin Genel Çerçevesi ve 2006 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası, Ankara, Aralık, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • TCMB (2014), 2015 Yılı Para ve Kur Politikası, Aralık, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • TCMB (2018), Enflasyon Hedefleri, Ankara, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr.

Analysis of The Inflation Targeting Strategy Implementation Process in Turkey: 2002-2016 Years Sample

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 4, 93 - 105, 18.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.457200

Öz

One of the essential elements for increasing economic prosperity is
sustainable growth. This can be achieved by ensuring economic stability and
thus price stability. Countries have tried to combat the problem of inflation
in the historical process and have developed different strategies on a
continuous basis. Inflation targeting is a strategy that has become popular
after the 1990s. His strategy officially began to be implemented by New Zealand
in 1990 for the first time. Turkey has about 30 -40 year period at a
consistently high and was forced to combat chronic inflation problem and apply
this purpose, many stabilization program. As the Inflation Targeting Strategy
both developed and developing countries have positive effects on CBRT, the bank
announced in early 2002 that its ultimate goal in monetary policy was to move
towards inflation targeting. Turkey has been implementing this strategy since
2002. In this study, the conceptual and theoretical framework of inflation
targeting is
explained than the application process in Turkey were
examined by multiple regression analysis.

Kaynakça

  • ALBERT, P., BRİGHT ADDİYİAH, O., ve CHARLES, B. (2014), Effects of Inflation Targeting Policyon Inflation Rates and Gross Domestic Product in Ghana, European Journal of Business and Management, 54-60.
  • ALPARSLAN, M., ve ATAMAN ERDÖNMEZ, P. (2000), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Bankacılar Dergisi, Aralık, Sayı 35.
  • BATİNİ, N., ve LAXTON, D. (2006) Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experienve of Emerging Markets, Working Papers, No.406, Central Bank of Chile, December, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu
  • BEN ROMDHANE, I. B., ve MEMSİ, S. (2014), Assessing the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting: Evidence from OECD Economies, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.60108, November , https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
  • CARARE, A., SCHAECHTER, A., STONE, M., ve ZELMER, M. (2002), Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/102, June, https://papers.ssrn.com.
  • CARRASCO, C. A. (2011), Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico, Panoeconomicus, ss.675-692, DOI: 10.2298/PAN1105675C.
  • CROCE, E., ve KHAN, M. S. (2000), Monetary Regimes and Inflation Targeting, Finance and Development, September, Volume 37, No.3
  • DA SİLVA, M. E. A., ve PORTUGAL, M. S. (2002), Inflation Targeting in Brazil: An Empirical Evaluation, Revista de Economia, 9,2, ss.85-122.
  • DEBELLE, G., MASSON, P., SAVASTANO, M., ve SHARMA, S. (1998), Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy, IMF, Economic Issues No.15 October.
  • EESEL, H., ve ÖZATAY, F. (2008) Inflation Targeting in Turkey, Working Paper 445, October, https://econpapers.repec.org .
  • GENC, I. H., LEE, M., RODRİGUEZ, C. O., ve LUTZ, Z. (2007) Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol.10, No.1, ss15-27, February, https://www.tandfonline.com.
  • GOSSELİN, M. A. (2007) Central Bank Performance Under Inflation Targeting, Bank Of Canada, Staff Working Paper / Document de Travil 2007-18, ISSN 1701-9397, March, https://www.bankofcanada.ca.
  • IMF (2002), Macroeconomic Management Programs and Policies; Inflation Targeting, Scarlata J. (April 19).
  • JENDOUBI, H. (2016), Inflation Targeting and Macro-Economic Performance: The Case of Emerging Countries, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, Vol.4, No.2, ss.61-74, ISSN: 2334-2382 (Print), 2334-2390 (Online).
  • KARTAL, F. (2011), Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi ve Para Politikasının Görünümü, Nisan, Yıl 25(91), http://dergipark.gov.tr
  • KASA, K. (2001), Will Inflation Targeting Work in Developing Countries?, FRBSF Economic Letter, Jenuary, https://www.frbsf.org
  • LEVİN, A. T., NATALUCCİ, F. M., ve PİGER, J. M. (2004), The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review, July-August, 86,4,ss.51-80
  • MASSON PAUL, R., SAVASTANO, M. A., ve SHARMA, S. (1997) The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/130, October, http://www.imf.org.
  • MİSHKİN, F. S. (1999), International Experiences With Different Monetary Pılicy Regimes, Journal of Monetary Economics, No.43.
  • MİSHKİN, F. S., ve SAVASTANO, M. A. (2000), Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America, NBER Working Paper No. 7617, Marc, http://www.nber.org
  • ÖZATAY, F. (2009), Türkiye’de 2000-2008 döneminde para politikası, İktisat İşletme ve Finans 24 (275) 2009 : 37-65, February, DOI: 10.3848/iif.2009.275.1974
  • ÖZTÜRK, S. (2009), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Yaklaşımı: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Cilt:16, Sayı:1 Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Manisa
  • PETURSSON, T. G. (2004), The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper, No.23, June, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org
  • SVENSSON, L. E. O. (2007), Inflation Targeting, CEPS Working Paper No.144, May, Princeton University.
  • TCMB (2004), 2005 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası, Sayı: 2004-59, Ankara, Aralık, http://tcmb.gov.tr
  • TCMB (2005), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminin Genel Çerçevesi ve 2006 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası, Ankara, Aralık, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • TCMB (2014), 2015 Yılı Para ve Kur Politikası, Aralık, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • TCMB (2018), Enflasyon Hedefleri, Ankara, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Serdar Öztürk 0000-0003-0650-0244

Dilek Usanmaz 0000-0003-0871-3841

Yayımlanma Tarihi 18 Ekim 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Eylül 2018
Kabul Tarihi 12 Ekim 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Öztürk, S., & Usanmaz, D. (2018). Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi Uygulama Sürecinin Analizi: 2002-2016 Yılları Örneklemi. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(4), 93-105. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.457200
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