Year 2018, Volume 9, Issue 16, Pages 2067 - 2096 2018-12-30

Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması
Econometric Forecasting For Container Handling: ARMA Model Application

Elif Tuçe Bal [1] , Vahit Çalışır [2]

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Geleceği planlamada son derece önemli olan öngörü, denizcilik alanında yapılan yatırımların oldukça maliyetli ve geri döndürülemez olmasından dolayı bu alanda ayrı bir öneme sahiptir. Öngörülerin uzun dönemli olması yatırımlarda daha çok önem kazanırken kısa dönemli olması operasyonlarda ve liman kaynaklarının dağıtımında önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada amaç 2018’in son üç ayını ve 2019 yılını kapsayan zaman dilimi için Türkiye’deki ithalat ve ihracat konteynerlerin toplamına yönelik aylık öngörü yaparak liman yöneticilerine liman operasyonlarında karar alma noktasında katkı sağlamaktır. Aylık öngörüler ile kendi paylarını hesaplayan kullanıcıların, bu hesaplamalar sayesinde liman operasyonlarını yönetmelerinin de kolaylaşabileceği düşünülmektedir.Çalışmada amaç doğrultusunda kısa dönemli öngörülerde diğer yöntemlere göre çok daha iyi olan Box – Jenkins yöntemi seçilmiştir. Sonuç olarak kısa dönemli Türkiye’deki ithalat ve ihracat konteynerlerin toplamına yönelik öngörü yapılmış ve Akaike ve Schwarz bilgi kriterlerinin model seçiminde her zaman sağlıklı sonuçlar vermediği ortaya koyulmuştur. Ayrıca Çalışmada deterministik trend ve mevsimsellik değişkenlerinin modele direkt dahil edilmiş ve öngörülerde bu değişkenlerin etkileri direkt olarak yansıtılmıştır.

Since investments in maritime sector are very costly and irreversible; forecasting, critical in planning the future, has a particular importance in this field. As long-term forecasting is more important in investments, short term forecasting is more important in operations and distribution of port resources. The purpose of this study is to forecast monthly the sum of Turkey’s import and export container, for the period from the ninth month of 2018 to the last month of 2019, and also to contribute to the decision-making of port managers in port operations. It is thought that it will be also easier for the users to calculate their shares with monthly projections and manage the port operations through these calculations. In accordance with purpose, in this study, Box - Jenkins method, which is much better than other methods in short term forecasting, has been selected. As a result, short-term the sum of Turkey’s import and export container is forecasted monthly and it has been shown that the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria do not always provide healthy results in the choice of model. In addition, deterministic trend and seasonality variables were included directly in the study and the effects of these variables were directly reflected in the model.

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Primary Language tr
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0003-1855-248X
Author: Elif Tuçe Bal
Institution: İSKENDERUN TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0001-6575-8988
Author: Vahit Çalışır (Primary Author)
Institution: İSKENDERUN TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Bibtex @research article { opus485722, journal = {OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi}, issn = {2528-9527}, eissn = {2528-9535}, address = {ADAMOR Toplum Araştırmaları Merkezi}, year = {2018}, volume = {9}, pages = {2067 - 2096}, doi = {10.26466/opus.485722}, title = {Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması}, key = {cite}, author = {Bal, Elif Tuçe and Çalışır, Vahit} }
APA Bal, E , Çalışır, V . (2018). Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması. OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9 (16), 2067-2096. DOI: 10.26466/opus.485722
MLA Bal, E , Çalışır, V . "Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması". OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi 9 (2018): 2067-2096 <http://dergipark.org.tr/opus/issue/39179/485722>
Chicago Bal, E , Çalışır, V . "Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması". OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi 9 (2018): 2067-2096
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması AU - Elif Tuçe Bal , Vahit Çalışır Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.26466/opus.485722 DO - 10.26466/opus.485722 T2 - OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 2067 EP - 2096 VL - 9 IS - 16 SN - 2528-9527-2528-9535 M3 - doi: 10.26466/opus.485722 UR - https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.485722 Y2 - 2018 ER -
EndNote %0 OPUS International Journal of Society Researches Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması %A Elif Tuçe Bal , Vahit Çalışır %T Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması %D 2018 %J OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi %P 2528-9527-2528-9535 %V 9 %N 16 %R doi: 10.26466/opus.485722 %U 10.26466/opus.485722
ISNAD Bal, Elif Tuçe , Çalışır, Vahit . "Konteyner Elleçleme İçin Ekonometrik Tahminleme: ARMA Modeli Uygulaması". OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi 9 / 16 (December 2019): 2067-2096. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.485722