Customer Churn Prediction with Machine Learning Methods In Telecommunication Industry

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 32 - 41, 16.06.2025

Buse Demir , Övgü Öztürk Ergün

https://doi.org/10.54569/aair.1709274

Öz

With the emergence of new competitors and increasing investments in telecommunication services, change often occurs and hence importance of marketing strategies and customer behavior prediction have become an important demand for companies. New regulations and technologies increase competition among mobile operators. Since acquiring a new customer is more expensive than acquiring active customers, companies seek solutions to reduce the churn rate. Therefore, telecommunications companies want to analyze the concept of the customer's desire to change service provider and take necessary measures to protect their existing customers. In this study, usage information, usage trends, subscription commitment, subscription age, ARPU and billing information, competitor familiarity, outgoing call information, number porting experience, etc. Loss estimation modeling is taken into account. Dataset includes 593 columns and 1826588 lines. Corporate mobile customers are analyzed by dividing into three subgroups as Single Line Mobile Customers, 2-5 Line Mobile Customers, and 6-15 Line Mobile Customers. In order to estimate customer loss, four different ML methods are used while creating loss prediction models. The model is developed by using 600 different variables and loss estimation. ROC curves and lift chart results for different corporate mobile customer groups are compared and the most suitable models are depicted.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Churn Prediction , Machine Learning , Telecommunication , Customer , Data Analysis , Random Forests , AI

Telekomünikasyon Sektöründe Makine Öğrenme Yöntemleriyle Müşteri Kaybı Tahmini

Öz

Yeni rakiplerin ortaya çıkması ve telekomünikasyon hizmetlerine yapılan yatırımların artmasıyla birlikte sıklıkla değişim yaşanmakta ve dolayısıyla pazarlama stratejilerinin ve müşteri davranış tahminlerinin önemi şirketler için önemli bir talep haline gelmiştir. Yeni düzenlemeler ve teknolojiler mobil operatörler arasındaki rekabeti artırmaktadır. Yeni bir müşteri edinmek, aktif müşteri edinmekten daha maliyetli olduğundan şirketler, müşteri kaybını azaltmak için çözümler aramaktadır. Bu nedenle, telekomünikasyon şirketleri müşterinin servis sağlayıcısını değiştirme isteği kavramını analiz etmek ve mevcut müşterilerini korumak için gerekli önlemleri almak istemektedir. Bu çalışmada, kullanım bilgileri, kullanım eğilimleri, abonelik taahhüdü, abonelik yaşı, ARPU ve faturalama bilgileri, rakip aşinalığı, giden arama bilgileri, numara taşıma deneyimi vb. kullanılarak kayıp tahmin modellemesi yapılmıştır. Veri seti 593 sütun ve 1826588 satır içermektedir. Kurumsal mobil müşteriler, Tek Hatlı Mobil Müşteriler, 2-5 Hatlı Mobil Müşteriler ve 6-15 Hatlı Mobil Müşteriler olmak üzere üç alt gruba ayrılarak analiz edilmiştir. Müşteri kaybını tahmin etmek için, kayıp tahmin modelleri oluşturulurken dört farklı ML yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Model 600 farklı değişken ve kayıp tahmini kullanılarak geliştirilmiştir. Farklı kurumsal mobil müşteri grupları için ROC eğrileri ve kaldırma grafiği sonuçları karşılaştırılarak en uygun modeller gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kayıp Tahmini , Makine Öğrenmesi , Telekomünikasyon , Rastgele Orman , Veri Analizi , YZ , Müşteri

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