A Simulation Model Based on System Dynamics for Factors Affecting Logistics Development and Planning

Öz

This article focuses on the need to understand the dynamic nature of the logistics system despite the difficulty of predicting its development. Logistics systems develop as complex structures with linear and nonlinear loops and are, affected by social, economic, and environmental factors. The development of countries’ logistics capacities and logistics performance in the international arena mutually affect each other. The development of logistics performance increases demand for the logistics sector. Therefore, this demand increase in the logistics sector or the development of the sectoral capacity affects the basic economic indicators. The interaction between the effective factors in logistics development is important for industry decision-makers, policy-making, and future planning, and traditional logistics modeling is insufficient to model this complex structure. This study uses a system dynamics simulation to investigate the effect of changes in different dynamics on Turkiye’s logistics capacity development. For this purpose, we used a system dynamics approach methodology based on the modeling of complex systems with cause-effect analysis and feedback loop structures. With this method, Turkiye’s logistics capacity development is monitored under different scenarios. This study demonstrates how system dynamics can improve the knowledge of complex logistics behavior. The comparison results of different scenarios indicate that the development of foreign trade activities has been the most important development factor in Turkiye’s logistics capacity performance. Development in investment decisions is another important factor. These effects cause different levels of change in the capacity utilization of different modes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• System Dynamics Analysis
• Simulation
• Logistics

Kaynakça

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