Determining the relationship between non-performing loans, economic growth, and asset size: An application in Turkish Participation Banking Sector

Öz

Participation Banks are an alternative financial institution that contributes to the development and deepening of the financial system in the Turkish Banking Sector. In this study, the relationship between participation banks, non-performing loans, gross domestic product, and asset size in the period 2005: Q1-2018: Q2 was investigated by using the co-integration, Granger causality tests and regression analysis methods. The results of the Granger causality test show that there is a one-way causality relationship between non-performing loans to gross domestic product and the gross domestic product to asset size, but there is a double causality relationship between non-performing loans and asset size. In the results of empirical analysis, a statistically significant relationship was found between both gross domestic product and asset size, and non-performing loans. In this context, it is determined that there is a negative relationship between non-performing loans and gross domestic product. On the other hand, it was determined that the asset size of the participation banking sector increased and the non-performing loans were affected in the same direction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Non-performing Loans
• Participation Banking
• Interest-Free Banking
• Economic Growth
• Asset size.

Kaynakça

1. Abdioğlu, N., & Aytekin, S. (2016). Takipteki Kredi Oranını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi: Mevduat Bankaları Üzerinde Bir Dinamik Panel Veri Uygulaması. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), 538-555. www.isarder.org
2. Abid, L., Ouertani, M. N., & Zouari-Ghorbel, S. (2014). Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Determinants of Household’s Non-Performing Loans in Tunisia: a Dynamic Panel Data. Procedia Economics and Finance(13), 58 – 68. doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00430-4
3. Beaton, K., Myrvoda, A., & Thompson, S. (2016). Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact. International Monetary Fund.
4. Beck, R., Jakubik, P., & Piloiu, A. (2015). Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample. Open Economies Review, 26(3), 525–550. doi:10.1007/s11079-015-9358-8
5. Bofondi, M., & Ropele, T. (2011). Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks. Banca D'Italia Eurosıstema. www.bancaditalia.it
6. Espinoza, R., & Prasad, A. (2010). Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects. International Monetary Fund.
7. Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relation by econometric and crosssectional method, Econometrica (37), 424–438.
8. Gujarati, D. N. (1999). Temel Ekonometri. (Ü. Şenesen, & G. Günlük-Şenesen, Çev.) İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.

9. Hall, S.G. (1991). The Effect of varying length VAR Models on the maximum likelihood estimates of cointegrating vectors. Scottish Journal of Political Economy (38), 317-323.
10. Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica. 59(6), 1551–1580.
11. Kartal, M. T., & Demir, C. H. (2017). Türkiye’de Katılım Bankacılığında Sorunlu Kredilerin Varlık Yönetim Şirketlerine Satışı Üzerine Bir İnceleme ve Yöntem Önerileri. İslam Ekonomisi ve Finansı Dergisi (1), 89-115.
12. Koyuncu, C., & Saka, B. (2011). Takipteki Kredilerin Özel Sektöre Verilen Krediler ve Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(31), 113-124.
13. Louzis, D. P., Vouldisa, A. T., & Metaxas, V. L. (2012). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios. Journal of Banking & Finance(36), 1012–1027. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.012
14. Macit, F., & Keçeli, B. (2012). Takipteki Krediler Oranını Etkileyen Faktörler: Türkiye'de Katılım Bankaları Örneği. Avrasya İncelemeleri Dergisi (1), 151-161.
15. MacKinnon, J., Haug, A., & Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(5), 563-577.
16. Messai, A. S., & Jouini, F. (2013). Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loans. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 852-860. www.econjournals.com
17. Morakinyo, A. E., & Sibanda, M. (2016). Non-Performing Loans and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Dynamic Analysis. SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, 66(4), 61-81. http://spoudai.unipi.gr
18. Polat, A. (2018). Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: Case of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(3), 603-709. doi:10.20491/isarder.2018.495
19. Saba, I., Kouser, R., & Azeem, M. (2012). Determinants of Non Performing Loans: Case of US Banking Sector. The Romanian Economic Journal(44), 125-136. http://www.rejournal.eu/issue/issue-44-year-xv-june-2012
20. Škarıca, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countires. financial theory and practice , 38(1), 37-59. doi: 10.3326/fintp.38.1.2
21. Tanasković, S., & Jandrić, M. (2015). Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans . Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice(1), 47-62. doi:10.1515/jcbtp-2015-0004
22. Tanınmış-Yücememiş, B., & Sözer, İ. A. (2010). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Takipteki Krediler: Mukayeseli Kriz Performansı. Avrupa Araştırmaları Dergisi, 18(1-2), 89-119.
23. Tanınmış-Yücememiş, B., & Sözer, İ. A. (2011). Bankalarda Takipteki Krediler: Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Takipteki Kredilerin Tahminine Yönelik Bir Model Uygulaması. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 3(5), 43-56.
24. Tarı, R. (1999). Ekonometri. İstanbul: Alfa Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
25. Tekşen, Ö., & Çelik, M. (2018). Kredi Türlerinin Takipteki Krediler Oranına Etkisi: Varlık Temelli Krediler Yüksek Takipteki Krediler Oranı İçin Bir Kalkan Mı? Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi(79), 95-110. doi:10.25095/mufad.438778
26. TKBB. (2018). Türkiye Katılım Bankaları Birliği. www.tkbb.org.tr
27. Us, V. (2016). Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector: What Has Changed After the Global Crisis? Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.
28. Vatansever, M., & Hepşen, A. (2013). Determining Impacts on Non-Performing Loan Ratio in Turkey. Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, 2(4), 119-129.
29. Yüksel, S. (2016). Bankaların Takipteki Krediler Oranını Belirleyen Faktörler: Türkiye İçin Bir Model Önerisi. Bankacılar Dergisi(98), 41-56.
30. Zeng, S. (2012). Bank Non-Performing Loans (NPLS): A Dynamic Model and Analysis in China. Modern Economy(3), 100-110. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/me.2012.31014