Estimation of Wheat Yield with DSSAT Crop Simulation Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 87 - 97, 30.12.2024

Alper Baydar , Mete Özfidaner , Engin Gönen , Burak Dalkiliç

Öz

In this study, the integration of wheat into the crop simulation model (CSM) was examined in order to determine the climatic changes that may occur in Mersin region conditions in the future between 2018-2019. In this sense, the possible usage of Ceres sub-model of DSSAT crop simulation model in wheat was determined. Plant height (cm), leaf area index (cm2 cm-2), biomass (kg ha-1) and yield (kg ha-1) values obtained in the field and estimated by the DSSAT model were compared and t test was applied at 5% significance level. In both years of the study, the parameters measured in the field and predicted by the model were not found to be statistically significant (P > 0.05), while the leaf area index values were significant. The DSSAT-Ceres crop simulation model estimated yield value of 584-397 kg ha-1 in 2018 and 2019, respectively, while field measurements were obtained as 622-380 kg ha-1. It was concluded that the DSSAT-CSM can predict wheat with the plant genetic coefficients obtained as a result of calibration.

Anahtar Kelimeler

DSSAT, Crop simulation model, Yield estimation, Wheat

Proje Numarası

TAGEM/TSKA/16/A13/P08/01

DSSAT Bitki Simülasyon Modeli ile Buğday’da Verim Tahmini

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2018-2019 yılları arasında Mersin yöresi koşullarında gelecek yıllarda oluşabilecek iklimsel değişikliklerin belirlenebilmesi amacıyla Buğday bitkisinin bitki simlasyon modeline olan entegrasyonu incelenmiştir. Bu anlamda DSSAT bitki simülasyon modeline ait Ceres alt modelinin buğday bitkisinde kullanım durumu belirlenmiştir. Arazide elde edilen ve model tarafından kestirilen bitki boyu (cm), yaprak alan indeksi (cm2 cm-2), biyokütle (kg ha-1) ile verim (kg ha-1) değerleri karşılatırılarak %5 önem seviyesinde t testi uygulanmıştır. Araştırmanın her iki yılında da arazide ölçülen ve modelin kestirdiği anılan parametrelerde %5 önem seviyesinde farklılıklar görülmemişken yaprak alan indeksi değeri farklılık göstermiştir. DSSAT-Ceres bitki simülasyon modeli 2018 ve 2019 yıllaında sırası ile 5840-3970 kg ha-1 verim değeri elde ederken arazi ölçümleri ise 6220-3800 kg ha-1 şeklinde elde edilmiştir. DSSAT bitki simülasyon modelinin kalibrasyon sonucu elde edilen bitki genetik katsayıları ile buğday tahmini yapabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

DSSAT, Bitki simülasyon modeli, Verim tahmin, Buğday

Proje Numarası

TAGEM/TSKA/16/A13/P08/01

Kaynakça

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