TÜRKİYE'DE 1994, 2001 VE 2018-2021 KUR KRİZLERİNİN YENİ NESİL KRİZ TEORİLERİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE İNCELENMESİ

Öz

Yeni nesil kriz teorileri, 20.yy’ın son çeyreğinde Asya, Avrupa ve Güney Amerika’da yaşanan krizleri incelemek amacıyla geliştirilmiştir. Krizlerin farklılık göstermesinden dolayı kriz teorileri, birinci nesil, ikinci nesil ve üçüncü nesil olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Bu teorilerin ortak noktası ise şudur; sabit kur uygulayan veya rezerv sorunu olan ülkelerde spekülatif kur saldırıları krizlerde etkilidir. Türkiye, 1994 ve 2001 krizlerinin ardından sabit kur rejimini terk etmiş ve dalgalı kur rejimine geçmiştir. Fakat merkez bankasının rezervlerinin sınırlı olması, yüksek dış borç ve artan cari açık nedeniyle Türkiye’nin kur dalgalanmalarına karşı kırılganlığı artırmıştır. Bu nedenle Türkiye 2014-2021 yılları arasında yeni spekülatif kur şoklarına maruz kalmıştır. Kur şokları makroekonomik dengeleri bozmuştur. Böylece Türkiye yeniden dış borç, enflasyon, faiz ve kur sarmalına girmiştir. Sonuç olarak P. Krugman’ın ifade ettiği gibi Türkiye’de kur dalgalanmalarından kaynaklanan bir para-borç krizi meydana gelmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yeni Nesil Kriz Teorileri
• Kur Krizi
• Döviz Kurları
• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• Dış Borç

EXAMINING OF THE 1994, 2001 AND 2018-2021 CURRENCY CRISES IN TURKEY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NEW GENERATION CRISIS THEORIES

Abstract

New generation crisis theories have been developed to examine the crisis in Asia, Europe and South America in the last quarter of 20th century. Crisis theories was classified as first generation, second generation and third generation because of the differences in crisis. The common points of these theories are as follows; speculative currency attacks are effective in crisis in countries that apply fixed exchange rates or have reserve problems. After the 1994 and 2001 crises, Turkey abandoned the fixed exchange rate regime and switched to the floating exchange rate regime. However, Turkey's vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations has increased due to the limited reserves of the central bank, high external debt and increasing current account deficit. Therefore, Turkey has been exposed to new speculative exchange rate shocks between 2014-2021. Exchange rate shocks deteriorated the macroeconomic balances. Thus, Turkey has again entered the spiral of foreign debt, inflation, interest and exchange rate. As a result, as stated by P. Krugman, a money-debt crisis occurred in Turkey due to exchange rate fluctuations.

Keywords

• New Generation Crisis Theories
• Currency Crisis
• Exchange Rates
• Turkey Economy
• Foreign Debt

Kaynakça

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