Bankacılıkta Müşteri Verilerini Anlama: CRISP-DM Yaklaşımı ve Makine Öğrenimi Uygulamaları

Öz

Bu çalışma, günümüzde işletmeler için müşteri bilgilerinin önemini vurgulamakta ve özellikle finansal işlemlerle uğraşan bankaların bu bilgileri işleyip analiz ederek yönetim stratejilerinde kullanmasını ele almaktadır. Moro ve diğerleri tarafından sağlanan anonimleştirilmiş ve amaca uygun revize edilmiş veri seti kullanılarak, banka müşterilerinin vadeli mevduata abone olma olasılığını etkileyen faktörler incelenmiş ve pazarlama stratejilerine yönelik veri destekli öneriler sunulmuştur. Çalışma, müşteri davranışını etkileyen değişkenleri belirlemek için Lojistik Regresyon, Karar Ağaçları (Decision Tree), Rastgele Orman (Random Forest), Destek Vektör Makineleri (SVM) ve XGBoost gibi çeşitli makine öğrenimi tekniklerini kullanarak, CRISP-DM metodolojisini altı aşamada yapılmıştır. En iyi performansı gösteren Lojistik Regresyon modeli olmuştur. Bulgularda “emekli, öğrenci, yüksek eğitim seviyesi, önceki kampanya başarısı, ve Mart ayı gibi değişkenler”, müşterinin vadeli mevduat aboneliğine daha yatkın olduğunu göstermektedir. “Konut kredisi ve kredi borcu” gibi finansal yükümlülükler. Müşterinin vadeli mevduat aboneliği yapma olasılığını azaltmaktadır. Önerilerden bazıları arasında anlamlı değişkenlere (ör. meslek, eğitim seviyesi, medeni durum) odaklanarak stratejiler geliştirilmesinin yanı sıra eğitim seviyesi yüksek bireyleri hedefleyen pazarlama stratejileri geliştirilebilir. Finansal durumu zorlayıcı olan bireylerin hedef olay üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olduğundan, bu gruplara yönelik uygun öneriler sunulabilir. Çalışmanın sınırlamaları arasında veri setinin güncelliği ve sınıf dengesizliğini gidermek için kullanılan aşırı örnekleme tekniği yer almaktadır. Gelecekte yapılacak araştırmalarda farklı makine öğrenimi modelleri ve daha geniş veri setleri kullanılarak kapsamlı analizler gerçekleştirilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bankacılık Analitiği
• CRISP-DM Metodolojisi
• Veri Analizi
• Vadeli Mevduat Aboneliği

Understanding Customer Data in Banking: CRISP-DM Approach and Machine Learning Applications

Öz

This study emphasizes the importance of customer information for businesses today and specifically addresses the need for banks involved in financial transactions to process and analyze this information for use in management strategies. Using an anonymized and purposefully revised dataset provided by Moro et al., factors influencing the likelihood of bank customers subscribing to a term deposit were examined, and data-supported recommendations for marketing strategies were presented. The study followed the CRISP-DM methodology in five main stages (Business Understanding, Data Understanding, Data Preparation, Modeling, and Evaluation) and utilized various machine learning techniques, including Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and XGBoost, to identify variables that influence customer behavior. Logistic Regression emerged as the best-performing model. The findings indicate that variables such as "retiree, student, high education level, previous campaign success, and March month" increase the likelihood of customers subscribing to a term deposit, whereas financial obligations like "mortgage and credit debt" decrease this likelihood. Among the recommendations are strategies that focus on significant variables (e.g., occupation, education level, marital status) as well as developing targeted marketing strategies for individuals with a high level of education. Since individuals facing financial constraints have negative impacts on the target outcome, suitable recommendations can be made for these groups as well. Limitations of the study include the dataset’s currency and the oversampling technique used to address class imbalance. Future research may achieve more comprehensive results by using different machine learning models and larger datasets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Banking Analytics
• CRISP-DM Methodology
• Data Analysis
• Term Deposit Subscription

Kaynakça

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