The Arab Spring and South China Sea Tensions: Analyzing China's Drive to Energy Security

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3, 93 - 107, 01.06.2013

Henelito A. Sevilla

Öz

The Arab Spring has brought significant changes to the political landscape in many Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries since early 2011. It has also affected the geo strategic and economic interests of powerful emerging Asian states, especially China and other net-energy consuming countries. One immediate result of the Arab Spring is its highly disrupted impact (a ' Black Swan') on the production and supply of crude oil to the economies in Asia due to their high degree of reliance on hydrocarbon from the Middle East. Chinese reactions to Arab Spring have fed tensions between itself and the countries with which it shares the South China Sea, most importantly the Philippines and Vietnam. This paper demonstrates that the black swan effect of the Arab Spring is manifested in the renewal of a geo-strategic competition in the South China Sea as China is re-asserting its historical claims over the control of the area and of its possible hydrocarbon reserves.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arab Spring, South China Sea, energy security, Middle East and North African (MENA) region, disputed territories

Kaynakça

• Alterman, Jon B., and Garver, John W. “The Vital Triangle.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 20, 2008. Accessed February 23, 2013, http://csis.org/publication/vital-triangle.
• Bacik, Gokhan. “The Arab Spring versus China.” Today’s Zaman, November 27, 2011. Accessed July 26, 2012, http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-264098-the-arab-spring-versus-china.html.
• Bouchentouf, Amine. “Black Swan events in 2012 could push oil to $200.” Energ and Capital, 2001.
• Accessed January 4, 2012, http://seekingalpha.com/article/313482-black-swan-events-in-2012-could-push-oil- to-200.
• Brennan, Elliot. “Rising Tide of Conflict in South China Sea,” Asia Times, March 3, 2012. Accessed October 20, 2012. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NC03Ad01.html.
• Cole, Bernard D. “Oil for the Lamps of China”-Beijing’s 21st –Century Search for Energy.” McNair Paper 67 of the Institute of National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, Washington DC. p. 15., 2003.
• Accessed June 28, 2010, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/198_428.McNair.pdf.
• Downs, Erica S. “Getting China to Turn on Iran.” The National Interests, July 19, 2012. Accessed October 3, 2012, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/getting-china-turn-iran-7215.
• Falk , Richard. “Is the Arab Spring a Black Swan?” World Press, May 6, 2011. Accessed November 7, 2011, http://richardfalk.wordpress.com/2011/05/06/is-the-arab-spring-a-black-swan/.
• Fabi, Randy and Aizhu, Chen. “Analysis: China Unveils Oil Offensive in South China Sea Squabble.” Reuters, August 1, 2012. Accessed October 20, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/01/us-southchinasea- china-idUSBRE8701LM20120801.
• Goodenough, Patrick. “China, Iran’s Biggest Oil Customer, Gets Last-Minute Sanctions Exemption from Obama Administration.” CNS News, June 29, 2012. Accessed August 2, 2012, http://cnsnews.com/news/article/china-iran-s-biggest-oil-customer-gets-last-minute-sanctions-exemption- obama.
• Harold , Scott Warren, and Nader, Alireza. “China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations.” Occasional Paper. (Santa Monica: RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, 2012). Accessed October 6, 2012, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP351.htm.
• Ho, Stephanie. “Beijing Urges Libya to Protect Chinese Investment.” Voice of America News, August 22. 2011.
• Aaccessed September 8, 2011. http://www.voanews.com/content/beijing-urges-libya-to-protect-chinese- investments-128238513/144158.html.
• Hui, Wang. “Cementing Ties with the Arab World.” China Daily, January14, 2012. Accessed March 13, 2012, http://www.chinadailyapac.com/article/cementing-ties-arab.
• Jiang, Wenrang. “China’s Global Quest for Energy Security.” Energy Issues in the Asia Pacific. Edited by Amy Lugg and Mark Hong. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2012.
• Kan, Michael and Yan, Belinda. “China’s Investment in Libya.” The African Business Journal, October 19, 20 Kejun, Jiang. “Management of Energy Sources in China.” World Bank Energy Research Institute. Accessed October 8, 2012. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/84797-1251813753820/6415739- 1251814084145/Kejun_Energy_China.pdf.
• Klare, Michael T. Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: New Geopolitics of Energy. New York: Henry Holts and Company, LLC., 2008.
• Makilan, Aubrey SC. “Philippines III: Prepared for Global Peak Oil.” Bulatlat. Volume 4, No. 34. October 20 Accessed March 2, 2013. http://www.bulatlat.com/news/5-34/5-34-oil.htm.
• Matthews, Stephen P. “Energy Security: Implications for US-China-Middle East Relations.” The James A. Baker IIII Institute for Public Policy, July18, 2005. Accessed July 25, 2012, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/SIIS_SMatthews_ChinaMideastEnergy071805.pdf.
• Nelder, Chris. “Oil Prices: Why the Past is not a prologue?” Energy and Capital, December 3, 2008. Accessed
• November 5, 2012. http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/black+swan-prices-peak+oil/791.
• Pei, Minxin. Viewpoint: China’s Iran Dilemma. BBC, January 20, 2012. Accessed October 4, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-16607333.
• Pett, David. “Black Swan-like Events Leave Markets Confused.” Financial Post, March 16, 2011. Accessed
• July 16, 2013. http://business.financialpost.com/2011/03/16/black-swan-like-events-leave-markets-confused/.
• Planes, Alex. “The Down of the Dow and the Rise of the Middle East.” Daily Finance, May 26, 2013. Accessed
• July 16, 2013, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/05/26/the-dawn-of-the-dow-and-the-rise-of-the-middle-eas/
• Pollack, Jonathan D. “China Unease from Afar.” Brookings Institution, 2011. Accessed June 3, 2012. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2011/11/18%20arab%20awakening%20china%20poll ack/18%20arab%20awakening%20china%20pollack.
• Rapoza, Kenneth. “China Increasing Oil reserves with New Discoveries.” Forbes, February24, 2012. Accessed
• October 27, 2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/02/24/china-increasing-oil-reserves-with-new- discoveries/.
• Romero, Alixes. “Philippine Defense Chief: Military Modernization in Full Swing.” Philippine Star, July 16, 20 Accessed October 25, 2012, http://www.philstar.com/nation/article.aspx?publicationsubcategoryid=200&articleid=824739.
• Santamaria, Carlos. “China Sees PH as U.S. ‘proxy’ says Expert.” Rappler, July 29, 2012. Accessed October 25, 2012, http://www.rappler.com/nation/9400-china-sees-ph-as-us-proxy-,-says-expert.
• Schofield, Clive. “Maritime Energy Resources in Asia: Rising Tension over Critical Marine resources.” The National Bureau of Asian Research No.35. December 2011. Accessed January 4, 2012, http://nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/Preview/SR35_MERA-EnergyandGeopolitics_preview.pdf.
• Sevilla, Henelito A. “Middle East Oil Security and Its Impct on te Economic Development and Security of the Asia-Pacific Region.” Asia-Pacific Journal of Social Science. (No. 1, December 2010).
• Spegele, Bryan. “China Shops Around for Oil, Wary of Iran, Arab Spring.” The Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2012. Aaccessed October 27, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203750404577170412230319648.html.
• Storey, Ian. “Asia’s Changing Balance of Military Power: Implications for the South China Sea.” National Bureau of Asian Research. Accessed October 25, 2012, www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id.
• Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, New York. 2007
• Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, and Blyth, Mark. “The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility makes the world less predictable and more dangerous.” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2011. Accessed August 4, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67741/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-mark-blyth/the-black-swan-of-cairo.
• Weitz, Richard. “Why China Opposes US Sanctions on Iran.” January 15, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.sldinfo.com/why-china-opposes-us-sanctions-on-iran/.
• Yetiv, Steve, and Lu, Chunlong. “China, Global Energy and the Middle East.” The Middle East Journal, 61: 2, 20 Accessed August 16, 2011, http://idjames.org/2012/07/china-global-energy-and-the-middle-east/.
• Zweig , David, and Jianhai, Bi. “China’s Global Hunt for Energy.” Foreign Affairs, 84:5, 2005. Accessed
• January 17, 2010. http://wuyibing.com/cache/china-s-global-hunt-for-energy.pdf.
• Asia News, August 24, 2011. Accessed October 9 , 2011, http://www.asianews.it/news- en/Gaddafi%E2%80%99s-fall-threatens-Chinese-investments-in-Libya-22451.html.
• Asia Times Online, March 29, 2012. Accessed October 24, 2012, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NC29Ae01.html.
• “Behind recent Gunboat Diplomacy in the South China Sea.” The International Institute for Strategic Studies. Accessed January 24, 2012, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17- 2011/august/behind-recent-gunboat-diplomacy-in-the-south-china-sea/.
• China Daily, January 15, 2012. Accessed July 4, 2012, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7705641.html.
• China Daily, March 22, 2011, Accessed March 23, 2011, http://www.china.org.cn/business/2011- 03/22/content_22193300.htm.
• “China’s Twelve Five-Year Plan: How it actually works and what in store for the next five years.” APCO Worldwide, December 10, 2010. Accessed 2 July 2011, http://apcoworldwide.com/content/PDFs/Chinas_12th_Five-Year_Plan.pdf.
• “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.” Official website of the Association of South East Asian Nations. Accessed October 13, 2012, http://www.aseansec.org/13163.htm.
• “North America leads shift in global energy balance, IEA says in latest World Energy Outlook.” International Energy Website. Accessed March 23, 2013, http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2012/november/name,33015,en.html.
• Peoples Daily, October 15, 2010. Accessed July 16, 2013, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90780/91342/7167387.html.