Evaluation of hydrological parameters and sediment dynamics in the Borçka Dam watershed using the SWAT model

Öz

Various human-originating interventions and/or activities have been playing the major role for substantially impacting natural flow regime, water quality, and sediment transport amounts of running waters (streams, creeks etc.) in a negative way. While many studies using in-field measurements of such impacts have proven these changes, applying modeling methods in order to assess such effects are still improving. This study used the SWAT model to assess annual changes in water regime, quality, and sediment yield for Murgul, Hatila, Fabrika, and Godrahav Creeks based on field measurements. The model estimated the highest annual surface flow at Murgul Creek (2.41 m3/s) and the lowest at Fabrika Creek (0.19 m3/s). Sediment yields were 61855 t/yr at Murgul, 29826 t/yr at Hatila, 3165 t/yr at Fabrika, and 7835 t/yr at Godrahav. The model also provided reliable predictions for most sub-creeks, with R2 values between 0.85 and 0.91 and NSE values between 0.72 and 0.84. For run-off, Hatila, Fabrika, and Godrahav showed high reliability with R2 and NSE values around 0.85 and 0.80, respectively, while Murgul had lower scores (R2: 0.53, NSE: 0.22). Sediment yield was reliable in Hatila and Fabrika with R2 around 0.82, but less so in Godrahav and Murgul, with NSE values showing significant variability. Water quality predictions for NO3 were acceptable across all creeks, with R2 values around 0.82 and varied NSE values, indicating generally reliable outcomes. However, the model predicted less favorable outcomes for Murgul Creek due to significant human-induced alterations. While the SWAT model was generally promising, the study emphasizes the need for detailed, long-term data to improve prediction accuracy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Water Quality
• Streamflow
• Sediment Yield
• SWAT Model
• Watershed

Teşekkür

This article is derived from the research conducted during my doctoral studies at Artvin Çoruh University. I would like to express my gratitude to my advisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet ÖZALP for his guidance, valuable comments, and contributions. Additionally, I am thankful to the Artvin Çoruh University BAP Coordination Unit for their support throughout my thesis work and to all my colleagues who were with me during the research process, especially to Şenol OSMANAOĞLU and Gözde ÖZAY.

Borçka Barajı havzasında hidrolojik parametrelerin ve sediment dinamiklerinin SWAT modeli ile değerlendirilmesi

Öz

İnsan kaynaklı müdahaleler ve/veya faaliyetler akarsuların doğal akış rejimini, su kalitesini ve sediment taşınımını genelde olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu etkilerin arazi ölçümleriyle kanıtlandığı çalışmalar olmasına rağmen, modelleme yöntemlerinin kullanımı gelişmeye devam etmektedir. Bu çalışma, Murgul, Hatila, Fabrika ve Godrahav Dereleri için yıllık değişiklikleri SWAT modeliyle değerlendirmiştir. Model, Murgul Deresi için en yüksek yüzey akışını (2.41 m3/s), Fabrika Deresi için ise en düşük akışı (0.19 m3/s) tahmin etmiştir. Sediment verimi, Murgul'da 61855 t/yıl, Hatila'da 29826 t/yıl, Fabrika'da 3165 t/yıl, Godrahav'da ise 7835 t/yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Model, çoğu alt dere için 0.85 ile 0.91 arasında R2 ve 0.72 ile 0.84 arasında NSE değerleriyle güvenilir tahminler sağlamıştır. Hatila, Fabrika ve Godrahav için yüzey akışı yüksek güvenilirlik göstermişken (R2 ve NSE değerleri yaklaşık 0.85 ve 0.80), Murgul daha düşük değerler almıştır (R2: 0.53, NSE: 0.22). Sediment veriminde Hatila ve Fabrika güvenilirken, Godrahav ve Murgul'da NSE değerleri büyük değişkenlik göstermiştir. NO3 su kalitesi tahminleri tüm dereler için kabul edilebilir olup, R2 değerleri yaklaşık 0.82 ve NSE değerleri değişkenlik göstermiştir. Ancak, Murgul Deresi için model, ciddi insan kaynaklı değişiklikler nedeniyle daha az olumlu tahminlerle sonuçlanmıştır. SWAT modeli genel olarak umut verici sonuçlar vermiş, ancak çalışma daha doğru sonuçlar için detaylı ve uzun vadeli verilere olan ihtiyacı vurgulamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Su Kalitesi
• Dere Akışı
• Sediment Verimi
• SWAT Model
• Havza

Teşekkür

Bu makale, Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi’ndeki doktora çalışmam sırasında yürüttüğüm araştırmalardan türetilmiştir. Bu süreçte bana rehberlik eden danışmanım Doç. Dr. Mehmet ÖZALP'e, değerli yorumları ve katkıları için teşekkür ederim. Ayrıca, tez çalışmam boyunca bana destek olan Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi BAP Koordinatörlüğü ve araştırma sürecinde yanımda olan tüm meslektaşlarıma, özellikle Şenol OSMANAOĞLU ve Gözde ÖZAY'a minnettarım.

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