İklim Değişikliği Koşullarında Quercus alnifolia'nın Mevcut ve Gelecekteki Potansiyel Dağılımı

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Kıbrıs Adası’na özgü endemik bir tür olan Quercus alnifolia Poech.’nin mevcut ve gelecekteki potansiyel dağılım alanları tür dağılım modelleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Tür varlık verileri GBIF veri tabanından elde edilmiş, mevcut ve gelecek iklim koşulları altında (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) dağılım tahminleri Maksimum Entropi yöntemi ile modellenmiştir. Model sonuçlarına göre türün dağılımını belirleyen başlıca çevresel değişkenlerin denizden uzaklık, engebelilik indeksi, yıllık sıcaklık aralığı ve topoğrafik pozisyon indeksi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Quercus alnifolia’nın yüksek uygunluk gösterdiği alanların özellikle Trodos Dağları boyunca yoğunlaştığını ve bu alanların farklı iklim senaryoları altında büyük ölçüde varlığını koruduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bununla birlikte, gelecek izdüşümü türün potansiyel dağılımının daha parçalı ve izole alanlara yönelme eğiliminde olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu durum, topoğrafik heterojenliğin yüksek olduğu mikrorefüj alanların türün iklim değişikliğine karşı dayanıklılığında kritik rol oynayabileceğini göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, çalışma bulguları, Quercus alnifolia için iklim değişikliğine karşı dirençli çekirdek habitatların belirlenmesine katkı sağlamakta ve mikrorefüj alanların korunmasının türün uzun vadeli sürdürülebilirliği açısından öncelikli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu yaklaşım, ada ekosistemlerinde endemik türlerin korunmasına yönelik planlama ve yönetim stratejilerine bilimsel bir temel sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Altın meşe
• Ekosistem yönetimi
• Mikrorefüj alanlar
• İklim değişikliği

Current and Future Potential Distribution of Quercus alnifolia under Climate Change Conditions

Öz

In this study, the current and future potential distribution areas of Quercus alnifolia Poech., an endemic species native to the island of Cyprus, were assessed using species distribution models. Species occurrence data were obtained from the GBIF database, and distribution predictions under current and future climate conditions (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) were modelled using the Maximum Entropy method. According to the model results, the primary environmental variables determining the species’ distribution were identified as distance to sea, ruggedness index, temperature annual range and topographic position index. The findings reveal that areas where Quercus alnifolia exhibits high suitability are particularly concentrated along the Troodos Mountains and that these areas largely persist under different climate scenarios. However, future projections indicate that the species’ potential distribution is likely to become more fragmented and tend towards isolated patches. This suggests that micro-refuge areas with high topographic heterogeneity may play a critical role in the species’ resilience to climate change. Consequently, the study’s findings contribute to the identification of climate-resilient core habitats for Quercus alnifolia and highlight that the conservation of micro-refuge areas is a priority for the species’ long-term sustainability. This approach provides insights for planning and management strategies aimed at the conservation of endemic species in island ecosystems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Golden oak
• Ecosystem management
• Micro-refuge
• Climate change

Kaynakça

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