Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions

Öz

In recent decades, climate change has been receiving a lot of attention from researchers as it is believed to be proceeding at an extraordinary rate during the last 1,300 years and many studies have attempted to document and predict its environmental effects. Eastern winter pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae), an economically important pest of pines in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, distributed through almost all coastal regions within Turkey. Even though, its European sister species, T. pityocampa is known to be an aggressive invader under global warming in Europe and proved to expand its range towards northern latitudes; there is a lack of knowledge about species current and future status through Turkey, especially Artvin and adjacent regions (Eastern Black Sea Region) where it has not have much effect yet. In this study, we aimed to predict PPM’s current and future distribution through Artvin and adjacent regions by using Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) software. We used 65 sampling points in conjunction with 7 climatic variables that were least inter-correlated and with greatest significant contribution to the distribution model. As the statistical tests showed that the fit of the generated model is good, we further carried on using this model for future predictions. Our results indicated that PPM would expand its range towards Artvin and adjacent regions. Even though, currently this region is not under risk of PPM invasion, models suggest that future climatic conditions might trigger PPM invasion in near future - by 2050 - 2080.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Pine processionary moth; Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni; climate change; Artvin; distribution

Artvin ve Çevresinde Çam Kese Böceği Riskinin Geleceğe Yönelik Modellenmesi

Öz

Son 1.300 yılın en yüksek oranlarına ulaşan iklim değişimi son zamanlarda araştırmacıların ilgisini çekmekte ve çevresel etkilerini tahminleyen birçok araştırmaya konu olmaktadır. Çam kese böceği (ÇKB), Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae), Doğu Akdeniz Havzası’ndaki çamlarda son derece önemli zararlara neden olan ve ülkemizde de neredeyse tüm sahil şeridini işgal etmiş bir güvedir. Avrupalı kardeş türü olan T. pityocampa’nın küresel ısınmanın etkisiyle yayılış alanına kuzey enlemlere doğru genişlettiği bilinmektedir. Ancak söz konusu türün Türkiye’deki mevcut ve gelecekteki durumu ile ilgili bilgilerimiz eksiktir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki ÇKB populasyonlarının bugünkü ve gelecekti dağılımının Maksimum Entropi Modellemesi (Maxent) kullanılarak tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. 65 örnekleme noktası ve birbiriyle en az ilişkili ve dağılım modeline en çok katkı sağlayan 7 iklimsel değişken ile birlikte kullanılmıştır. İstatistiksel sınamalar oluşturulan modelin iyi bir şekilde uyum sağladığını gösterdiğinden, bu model gelecek tahminlemesinde kullanılmıştır. Modelimiz çam kese böceğinin dağılım alanını Türkiye’nin kuzeydoğusuna doğru genişleteceğini tahminlemiştir. Günümüzde iklimsel olarak ÇKB istila riski taşımayan Artvin ve civarı modele göre 2020 ve 2050 yıllarında ÇKB istilası için uygun hale gelecektir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çam kese böceği, Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni, iklim değişimi, Artvin, dağılım

Kaynakça

1. Avcı M (2000) Investigation on structure of egg- batches, parasitism and egg laying habits of Thaumetopoea pityo-campa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae) in various regions of Turkey. Turk J Entomol 24:167-178
2. Avcı M, İpekdal K (2015) The pine processi-onary moths, Thaumetopoea pityo-campa and wilkinsoni, in Turkey. In: Roques A (ed) Processionary moths and climate change: an update. Springer, London, pp 141
3. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer M, Brown VK, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson JC, Farrar J, Good JEG, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones TH, Lindroth RL, Press MC, Symrnioudis I, Watt AD, Whittaker JB (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob Change Biol 8:1–16
4. Battisti A (1988) Host-plant relationships and dynamics population processionary caterpillar Thaumeto-poea pityocampa (Denis & Schiffer-müller). J Appl Entomol 105:393-402 pine
5. Battisti A, Stastny M, Netherer S, Robinet C, Schopf A, Roques A, Larsson S (2005) Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter tempera-tures. Ecol Appl 15,2084– 2096
6. Battisti A, Stastny M, Buffo E, Larsson S (2006) A rapid altitudinal range expansion in the pine processionary moth produced by the 2003 climatic anomaly. Glob Change Biol 12:662-671
7. Buffo E, Battisti A, Stastny M, Larsson S (2007) Temperature as a predictor of survival of the pine processionary moth in the Italian Alps. Agr Forest Entomol 9:65-72
8. Breuer M, Devkota B (1990) Control of Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) by extracts of (Meliaceae). J Appl Entomol 110:128 -135

9. Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science, 292:673–679
10. Démolin G (1969) Comportement des adultes de Thaumetopoea Dispersion écologique. Ann Sci Forest 26:81-102
11. Denis M, Schiffermüller I (1776) Systema-tisches Verzeichnis der Schmetter-linge der Wiener Gegend, Bernardi, Wien
12. Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudı´k M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers Distrib 17:43–57
13. Fitzpatrick MC, Gotelli NJ, Ellison AM (2013) MaxEnt versus MaxLike: empi-rical comparisons with ant species distributions. Ecosphere 4:55
14. Halperin J (1990) Life history of Thaumeto-poea spp. (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopo-eidae) in Israel. J Appl Entomol 110: 1-6
15. Harrington R, Fleming RA, Woiwod IP (2001) Climate change impacts on insect management and conservation in temperate regions: Can they be predicted? Agr Forest Entomol 3:233–240
16. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate sur-faces for global land areas. Int J Clim 25:1965-1978
17. Hódar JA, Castro J, Zamora R (2003) Pine processionary caterpillar Thaumeto-poea pityocampa a new threat for relict Mediterranean Scots pine forests under climatic warming. Biol Cons 110:123–129
18. Hódar JA, Zamora R, Cayuela L (2011) Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean eco-systems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor? Clim Ch DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0371-7
19. Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol Evol 15:56–61
20. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).Climate Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press (2007).The
21. İpekdal K (2012) Delimination and phylogeography of Turkish pine processionary moth species, Thaume-topoea pityocampa and wilkinsoni. University T. PhD Thesis, Hacettepe
22. Leather SR, Walters KFA, Bale JS (1993) The ecology of insect overwintering. Cambridge University Press, Cam-bridge, UK
23. Mendel Z (1990) On the origin of the pine processionary caterpillar, Thaumeto-poea wilkinsoni Tams (Lep., Thaume-topoeidae) in Israel. J Appl Entomol 109:311–314
24. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally co-herent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42
25. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259
26. Robinet C, Baier P, Pennerstorfer J, Schopf A, Roques A (2007) Modelling the effects of climate change on the potential feeding activity of Thau-metopoea pityocampa (Den. & Schiff.) (Lep.,Notodontidae) in France. Glob Ecol Biogeo 16:460-471
27. Robinet C, Imbert C-E, Rousselet J, Sauvard D, Garcia J, Goussard F, Roques A, (2012) Human-mediated long-dis-tance jumps of the pine processionary moth in Europe. Biol Invas 14:1557-1569
28. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57–60
29. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menze A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh- Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395
30. Vega JM, Moneo I, Armentia A, López-Rico R, Curiel G, Bartolome B, Fernández A (1997) Anaphlaxis to a pine cater-pillar. Allergy 52:1244–1245