Modeling of the distribution of Purple-flowered Rhododendron (Rhododendron ponticum L.) under the current and future climate conditions

Öz

This study aims to model the present and future potential distribution of Rhododendron ponticum L. species according to diverse climate scenarios using maximum entropy. Carried out in two stages, the present study utilized presence data representing natural distribution of R. ponticum L. species in Turkey, Georgia, and Russia. In the first stage, we determined variables of the climate models and focused on 19 bioclimatic variables (in 2.5 minute, or approximately 20 km2, spatial resolution in Wordclim version 2.1) obtained for presence data from sample points. In order to prevent from high correlation and multi-collinearity, bioclimatic variables were reduced to 8 variables by performing Pearson correlation analysis. In the second stage, CNRM-CM6-1 climate change model, which is one of the CMIP6 models, was used to determine how the distribution areas of the species will be affected by climate change. Within this scope, the potential distribution areas of the species under the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios in the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 were modelled by means of the MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. Furthermore, spatial differences between the present and future potential distribution of the species were assessed by change analysis. In conclusion, this study suggested using produced knowledge and transforming them from theory to practice for underpinning sustainable landscape management.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rhododendron ponticum L.
• CNRM-1
• Species distribution model
• Change analysis
• MaxEnt

Mor Çiçekli Ormangülünün (Rhododendron ponticum L.) günümüz ve gelecekteki iklim koşullarına göre yayılış alanlarının modellenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı mor çiçekli orman gülü Rhodendron ponticum L. 'nin maximum entropi algoritması kullanılarak günümüz ve gelecek potansiyel yayılış alanlarının iklim senaryolarına göre modellenmesidir. İki aşamalı olarak yürütülen bu çalışmanın birinci aşamasında R. ponticum L.’nin çalışma alanı (Türkiye, Gürcistan ve Rusya sınırları) içerisindeki yayılışını temsil eden örnek noktalara ait (presence data) veriler ve biyoklimatik değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Yüksek korelasyonu ve çoklu doğrusallığı önlemek amacıyla, Worldclim 2.1 versiyonu 2.5 dakika (yaklaşık 20 km2) konumsal çözünürlükteki 19 biyoklimatik değişken Pearson Korelasyon analizi yapılarak 8 değişkene indirgenmiştir. İkinci aşamada ise türün yayılış alanlarının iklim değişiminden nasıl etkileneceğini belirlemek için CMIP6 modellerinden olan CNRM-CM6-1 iklim değişikliği modeli kullanılmış, SSP2 4.5 ve SSP5 8.5’e senaryolarına göre 2041-2060 ve 2081-2100 periyotlarına ait potansiyel yayılış alanı MaxEnt 3.4.1 programı kullanılarak modellenmiştir. Ayrıca, tür için tahmin edilen günümüz ve gelecekteki potansiyel yayılış alanları arasındaki alansal ve konumsal farklar, değişim analizi ile ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuçta, R. ponticum L.’nin potansiyel yayılış alanlarına göre üretilen bilginin teoriden pratiğe dönüşmesindeki temel faydalar sürdürülebilir peyzaj yönetimi kapsamında tartışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rhododendron ponticum L.
• CNRM-1
• tür dağılım modeli
• değişim analizi
• MaxEnt

Kaynakça

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