Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Opec ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Zaman Serisi Analizi / The Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Analysis for the Opec and Oil-Imported Countries

Year 2013, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 349 - 362, 18.06.2013

Merter Akıncı Ergün Aktürk Ömer Yılmaz

Abstract

Öz: Dünya ekonomileri için yarattığı uzun dönemli makroekonomik etkiler nedeniyle

petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler çok sayıda araştırmaya konu

olmuştur. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler

1980–2011 döneminde OPEC ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için zaman serisi analizleri

kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Zaman serisi analizleri, bazı petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler

için petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki bakımdan

anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ve Kiribati’de ise negatif ve anlamlı etkiler ortaya çıkardığını

göstermiş, ayrıca pozitif yönlü ilişkinin OPEC üyesi olan sadece BAE’de ortaya çıktığını

yansıtmıştır. İlaveten, bazı ülkeler için ifade edilen değişkenler arasında hem eşbütünleşik

ve hem de nedensel ilişkilerin varlığı da ortaya konmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Petrol Fiyatları, Ekonomik Büyüme, Zaman Serisi Analizi

Abstract: The relationship between oil prices and economic growth is the subject of

many studies because oil price creates long-term macroeconomic impacts for the World

economies. In this paper, therefore, the relationship between oil prices and economic

growth is investigated by using time series analysis over the period of 1980–2011 for the

OPEC and oil-imported countries. The results of time series analysis show that a rise in

oil price creates a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth for

some oil-imported countries and a negative statistically significant effect on economic

growth in Kiribati; besides, this positive relation arises only for the UAE that is a member

of the OPEC. In addition, it is observed for some countries that both cointegration and

causal relationships occur between the mentioned variables.

Keywords: Oil Prices, Economic Growth, Time Series Analysis

Keywords

Petrol Fiyatları, Ekonomik Büyüme, Zaman Serisi Analizi

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