TÜRK DEVLETLERİ TEŞKİLATI’NDA CARİ DENGE SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: EŞİKLİ DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı’na (TDT) üye ülkelerin 1991–2023 dönemi cari denge sürdürülebilirliğini, hem geleneksel doğrusal birim kök testleri hem de son dönemde geliştirilen KSS ve TAR gibi doğrusal olmayan durağanlık yöntemlerini kullanarak incelemektedir. Analiz sonuçları, incelenen ülkelerin cari denge serilerinin basit bir birim kök sürecinden ziyade eşik (rejime bağlı) durağanlık gösterdiğini, dolayısıyla farklı risk düzeylerindeki dengesizliklerin farklı politika araçlarıyla yönetilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu kapsamda, TDT üyesi ülkelerin düşük, orta ve yüksek risk düzeylerine göre farklılaştırılmış bir politika çerçevesi benimsemeleri, dış dengesizliklerin etkin bir şekilde yönetilmesine ve sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlayabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• cari denge
• geçiş ekonomileri
• doğrusal birim kök
• doğrusal olmayan durağanlık
• ESTAR modeli
• TAR tahmini

ASSESSING CURRENT ACCOUNT SUSTAINABILITY IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TURKIC STATES: A THRESHOLD NONLINEAR ANALYSIS

Öz

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account balance among countries in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) from 1991 to 2023, employing both traditional linear unit root tests and the more recent KSS and TAR nonlinear stationarity procedures. The results show that each country’s current account balance follows a threshold (regime-dependent) stationarity pattern rather than a simple unit root process, suggesting that standard, uniform policy prescriptions may be inadequate. Consequently, implementing a differentiated policy framework—tailored to low-, medium-, and high-risk scenarios—could enable more effective management of external imbalances and foster sustainable economic growth across OTS member countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• current account balance
• transition economies
• linear unit root
• nonlinear stationarity
• ESTAR model
• TAR estimation

Kaynakça

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