PRAGMATISM AND REALIGNMENT: THE EVOLUTION OF THE UAE’S SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY (2011-2025)

Öz

Since 2011, the Syrian uprising has undergone multiple transformations, including civil war, the rise of ISIS, intensified regional rivalries, Russia’s military intervention, normalization initiatives with the Assad regime, and the regime’s unexpected collapse in 2024. Throughout these phases, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) repeatedly recalibrated its Syria policy. Rather than viewing these shifts as inconsistency, this article argues that they reflect a patterned form of strategic pragmatism shaped by three factors: evolving threat perceptions, particularly concerns about ideological mobilization, changes in the great-power environment, and shifting economic cost–benefit calculations. During the early phase of the uprising, the UAE adopted a cautious position due to economic ties and uncertainty about the regime’s durability. As the conflict militarized, the UAE selectively supported opposition actors while maintaining limited channels with Syria. Russia’s intervention in 2015 altered regional power balances and reinforced expectations of regime survival, prompting a gradual shift toward normalization. This process culminated in the reopening of the Emirati embassy in 2018 and high-level engagement between 2019 and 2023. By tracing these phases, the article conceptualizes Emirati pragmatism as a structured adaptation strategy in shifting geopolitical environments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• UAE-Syria relations
• Syria
• UAE
• Emirati policy in Syria

PRAGMATİZM VE YENİDEN KONUMLANMA: BAE’NİN SURİYE DIŞ POLİTİKASININ EVRİMİ (2011-2025)

Öz

2011’den bu yana Suriye ayaklanması; iç savaşa dönüşüm, IŞİD’in yükselişi, artan bölgesel rekabetler, Rusya’nın askeri müdahalesi, Esad rejimiyle normalleşme girişimleri ve 2024’te rejimin beklenmedik çöküşü gibi çok sayıda dönüşüm geçirmiştir. Bu süreçlerin tamamı boyunca Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE), Suriye politikasını defalarca yeniden kalibre etmiştir. Bu değişimleri tutarsızlık olarak yorumlamak yerine, bu makale söz konusu dönüşümlerin üç faktör tarafından şekillenen örüntülü bir stratejik pragmatizm biçimini yansıttığını ileri sürmektedir: özellikle ideolojik mobilizasyona yönelik kaygılar bağlamında gelişen tehdit algıları, büyük güç ortamındaki değişimler ve değişen ekonomik maliyet–fayda hesapları. Ayaklanmanın erken aşamasında BAE, ekonomik bağlar ve rejimin dayanıklılığına ilişkin belirsizlik nedeniyle temkinli bir tutum benimsemiştir. Çatışma silahlı hal aldıkça BAE, Suriye ile sınırlı iletişim kanallarını korurken muhalif aktörleri seçici biçimde desteklemiştir. Rusya’nın 2015’teki müdahalesi bölgesel güç dengelerini değiştirmiş ve rejimin ayakta kalacağı yönündeki beklentileri güçlendirerek normalleşmeye doğru kademeli bir yönelimi teşvik etmiştir. Bu süreç, 2018’de Emirlik büyükelçiliğinin yeniden açılması ve 2019–2023 yılları arasındaki üst düzey diplomatik temaslarla somutlaşmıştır. Bu aşamaları izleyerek makale, Emirlik pragmatizmini değişen jeopolitik ortamlar karşısında gelişen yapılandırılmış bir uyum stratejisi olarak kavramsallaştırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• BAE-Suriye ilişkileri
• Suriye
• BAE
• BAE’nin Suriye politikası

Kaynakça

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