TRUMP’IN İKİNCİ BAŞKANLIK DÖNEMİNDE ORTA DOĞU POLİTİKASI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Donald Trump’ın ikinci başkanlık döneminde (Ocak 2025–Mayıs 2026) izlediği Orta Doğu politikasını neoklasik realist bir çerçeveden incelemektedir. Çalışmanın temel sorusu, bu politikanın uluslararası sistemin dayattığı yapısal zorunlulukların mı yoksa liderin bireysel tercihlerinin mi ürünü olduğudur. Gideon Rose’un sistemik baskıların ara değişkenler aracılığıyla dış politikaya dönüştüğü aktarma/iletim kayışı modeli ile Randall Schweller’ın yetersiz dengeleme kuramı temel alınarak, yönetimin İran, İsrail-Filistin ve Körfez politikaları teorik temelli anlatı yöntemiyle analiz edilmektedir. Bulgular, öngörülemezlik olarak etiketlenen davranışların keyfî kararlar değil, sistemik baskılar ile liderin tehdit algısı, risk toleransı ve karşılaştığı kurumsal-bölgesel kısıtların etkileşiminden doğan çıktılar olduğunu göstermektedir. Gece Yarısı Çekici Operasyonu zamanlaması ve biçimi Biden ile Trump dönemleri arasındaki farklar ve Gazze vizyonunun bölgesel dirençle sınırlanması, liderin belirleyici filtre rolünü ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, yapı ile aktörün birbirini dışlamadığı bir sentez önermektedir. Sistemik baskılar dış politikanın sınırlarını çizerken, bu sınırlar içindeki yörüngeyi liderin algısı ve iç kısıtlar belirlemektedir. Böylece neoklasik realizmin, lider merkezli çıkarımları yapısal bir zemine oturtmaya olanak tanıyan açıklayıcı gücü vurgulanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Neoklasik Realizm
• Trump
• Orta Doğu
• Yapısal Zorunluluk
• Lider Tercihi

Kaynakça

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