The Russian-Ukrainian War and its Effects on European Security

Öz

The war in Ukraine has had numerous implications for European security. This study primarily aims to demonstrate how Europe’s security has been impacted in the wake of the Ukraine War, as the EU's perception of Russia as a security threat has intensified. The central hypothesis of the article is that Russia's attack on Ukraine, unlike its annexation of Crimea in 2014, has significantly increased the perception of threat from Russia in Europe and has had major implications for European security. While Russia was previously seen as a cooperative country in NATO's prior strategic concept, the new concept now views it as a menacing actor. This shift has led EU nations to provide substantial military aid to Ukraine and reinforce EU forces in Eastern Europe. Moreover, EU countries have considerably increased their military expenditures. Sweden and Finland joined NATO in response to the Russian threat. Nonetheless, the article argues that the EU has not yet achieved complete strategic autonomy from the United States.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ukrainian war
• European security
• NATO
• Transatlantic Alliance
• Russia

Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ve Avrupa Güvenliğine Etkileri

Öz

Ukrayna Savaşı Avrupa’nın güvenliğinde çeşitli etkilere yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmada temel olarak Ukrayna Savaşı sonrasında AB’nin Rusya’dan artan güvenlik tehdidi algısıyla beraber Avrupa’nın güvenliğinin nasıl etkilendiği ortaya konulmak istenmektedir. Makalenin merkezi hipotezi Rusya’nın Ukrayna’ya saldırısının 2014’te Kırım’ı ilhakından farklı olarak Avrupa’da Rusya’dan tehdit algısını büyük ölçüde artırdığı ve Avrupa güvenliği üzerinde önemli etkilere yol açtığıdır. Önceki NATO stratejik konseptinde Rusya, işbirliği yapılabilecek bir ülke olarak değerlendirilirken yeni konseptte artık tehdit edici bir aktör olarak görülmektedir. Bu durum AB ülkelerinin bir yandan Ukrayna’ya büyük miktarda askeri yardım yapmalarına yol açarken diğer yandan Doğu Avrupa’daki AB kuvvetlerinin takviye edilmesine neden olmuştur. Yanısıra AB ülkeleri askeri harcamalarını önemli oranda artırmışlardır. İsveç ve Finlandiya Rusya tehdidi nedeniyle NATO’ya üye olmuşlardır. Diğer yandan makale AB’nin ABD’den henüz stratejik otonomisini tam olarak elde edemediğini ileri sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ukrayna Savaşı
• Avrupa güvenliği
• NATO
• Transatlantik ittifak
• Rusya

Kaynakça

1. Alberque, W. ve Schreer, B. (2022). Finland, Sweden and NATO membership. Survival, 64(3), 67–72.
2. Arbatov, A. (1997). Russian foreign policy thinking in transition. V. Baranovsky (Ed.) Russia and Europe: The emerging security agenda. (s.135-159) içinde. Stockholm and Oxford: SIPRI and Oxford University Press.
3. Al Mayadeen English. (2024, Ağustos 25). Poland vows $26 bln in aid to Ukraine, 3.3% of GDP, says Duda. Erişim tarihi: 20.01.2024, https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/poland-vows--26bln-in-aid-to-ukraine--3-3--of-its-gdp--says
4. Armstrong, M. (2023, Mart 31). How war in Ukraine pushed Finland and Sweden towards NATO. Statista. Erişim tarihi: 01.10.2024, https://www.statista.com/chart/27422/public-support-joining-nato-finland-sweden/
5. Badohal, K. (2024, Temmuz 10). Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says. Reuters. Erişim tarihi: 01.10.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-must-prepare-army-full-scale-conflict-army-chief-says-2024-07-10/
6. Balcı, A. ve Kardaş, Ş. (2014). Uluslararası ilişkilere giriş, 2. Baskı. İstanbul: Küre Yayınları.
7. Baylis, J. ve Rengger, N. J. (1992). Introduction. J. Baylis ve N. J. Rengger (Ed.), Dilemmas of world politics: International issues in a changing world (s. 1-27) içinde. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
8. Bertoncini, Y. (2023, Ekim 10). What kind of “European sovereignty” after the Versailles declaration? Foundation Robert Schuman. Erişim tarihi: 01.10.2024, https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/721-what-kind-of-european-sovereignty-after-the-versailles-declaration

9. Black, J., Kleberg, C. ve Silfversten, E. (2024). NATO enlargement amidst Russia’s war in Ukraine: How Finland and Sweden bolster the transatlantic alliance. RAND Europe. Erişim tarihi: 03.09.2024, https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3236-1.html
10. Bothmann, S. (2022, Ekim 14). Putin claims Ukraine is not a country – History begs to differ. Independent Australia. Erişim tarihi: 15.11.2024, https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/putin-claims-ukraine-is-not-a-country--history-begs-to-differ,16863
11. Brennan, D. (2024, Şubat 28). What Sweden adds to NATO’s military arsenal. Newsweek. Erişim tarihi: 20.09.2024, https://www.newsweek.com/what-sweden-adds-nato-military-arsenal-1873758
12. Cafiero, G. (2024, Mart 26). What’s behind Macron’s “hardened stance” on the Russia-Ukraine war? Aljazeera. Erişim tarihi: 20.09.2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/26/whats-behind-macrons-hardened-stance-on-the-russia-ukraine-war
13. Carbonaro, G. (2023, Eylül 6). Poland said its army will soon be the strongest in Europe. But is that possible? Euronews. Erişim tarihi: 22.09.2024, https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/06/poland-said-its-army-will-soon-be-the-strongest-in-europe-but-is-that-possible
14. Chopin, T., Macek, L. ve Maillard, S. (2022). The European Political Community: A new anchoring to the European Union. Policy Brief, Institut Jacques Delors. Erişim tarihi: 22.09.2024, https://institutdelors.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/PB_220517_TheEuropeanPoliticalCommunity_Chopin_Macek_Maillard_EN.pdf
15. Cuperus, R. ve Molthof, L. (2022). Germany and the Ukraine war: Zeitenwende with the brakes on, Clingendael Alert. Erişim tarihi: 19.09. 2024, https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/Alert_Germany_and_the_war_in_Ukraine.pdf
16. Czulda, R. (2024, Eylül 3). Poland’s future armed forces take shape. European Security and Defence. Erişim tarihi: 20.10.2024, https://euro-sd.com/2024/09/articles/40091/polands-future-armed-forces-take-shape/
17. Delong, M. (2020). The concept of Russian Federation foreign and security policy by Eugene Primakov. Internal Security, 12(1), 307-318.
18. Deni, J. R. (2022). Finland and Sweden in NATO: Looking beyond Madrid. Atlantic Council Issue Brief. Erişim tarihi: 20.10.2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Finland-and-Sweden-in-NATO-Looking-beyond-Madrid.pdf
19. Eisele, I. (2023, Temmuz 12). What can Sweden contribute to NATO? Deutsche Welle. Erişim tarihi: 22.10.2024, https://www.dw.com/en/what-can-sweden-contribute-to-nato/a-66203036
20. Eyüp E. (2014). Realizm. R. Gözen (Ed.) Uluslararası ilişkiler teorileri (s.159-187) içinde. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
21. Forsberg, T. ve Herd, G. (2005). The EU, human rights, and the Russo-Chechen conflict. Political Science Quarterly, 120(3), 455-478.
22. France 24. (2023, Temmuz 13). French MPs approve huge boost in military spending, spurred by Ukraine war. Erişim tarihi: 28.09.2024, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230713-french-mps-approve-huge-boost-in-military-spending-spurred-by-ukraine-war
23. France 24. (2024, Şubat 16). France signs security pact with Ukraine, pledges “up to 3 billion” in additional military aid. Erişim tarihi: 10.09.2024, https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240216-zelensky-arrives-in-paris-to-sign-bilateral-security-deal-with-macron, Erişim Tarihi: 7 Ekim 2024.
24. Giuashvili, T. (2024, Mayıs 8). France’s eastern zeitenwende? ARI. 56/2024, Erişim tarihi: 13.09.2024, https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ari56-2024-giuashvili-france-eastern-zeitenwende.pdf
25. Götz, E. ve Ekman, P. (2024). Russia’s war against Ukraine: Context, causes and consequences. Problems of Post-Communism, 71(3), 193-205.
26. Herz, J. H. (1950). Idealist internationalization and the security dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157-180.
27. Haukkala, H. (2015). From cooperative to contested Europe? The conflict in Ukraine as a culmination of a long-term crisis in EU-Russia relations. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 23(1), 25-40.
28. Hermann, C. F. (1990). Changing course: When governments choose to redirect foreign policy. International Studies Quarterly, 34(1), 3–21.
29. Küçüksolak, Ö. K. (2012). Güvenlik kavramının realizm, neo-realizm ve Kopenhag okulu çerçevesinde tartışılması. Turan-Sam, 4(14), 202-208.
30. Lawrence, T. Jermalavičius, T. ve Hyllander, J. (2024). The newest allies: Finland and Sweden in NATO. ICDS, Tallinn, Erişim tarihi: 15.09.2024, https://icds.ee/wp- content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/03/ICDS_Report_The_Newest_Allies_Lawrence_Jermalavicius_Hyllander_March_2024.pdf
31. Lynch, A. C. (2001). The realism of Russia’s foreign policy. Europe-Asia Studies, 53(1), 7-31.
32. Mankoff, J. (2022, Nisan 22). Russia’s war in Ukraine: Identity, history, and conflict. CSIS Report, Erişim tarihi: 15.09.2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/russiaswar-ukraine-identity-history-and-conflict
33. Martin, T. (2024, Nisan 26). Swedish Defense Committee calls for near $4.8 billion in defense spending jump. Breaking Defense. Erişim tarihi: 15.10.2024, https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/swedish-defense-committee-calls-for-near-4-8-billion-defense-spending-jump/
34. Meister, S. (2024, Nisan 22). Germany and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine: The third year. DGPA. Erişim tarihi: 15.10.2024, https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/germany-and-russias-war-aggression-against-ukraine-third-year
35. Melkozerova, V. (2024, Temmuz 8). Ukraine strikes security deal with Poland. Politico. Erişim tarihi: 16.10.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-poland-security-deal-aid-package-war-russia/
36. Mello, P. A. (2024). Zeitenwende: German foreign policy change in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Politics and Governance, 12(7346), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.7346
37. Moyer, J. C. ve Winberg, H. (2024, Ocak 23). Sweden’s contributions to NATO: Bolstering the alliance’s defense industry and air capabilities. Wilson Center. Erişim tarihi: 19.10.2024, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/swedens-contributions-nato-bolstering-alliances-defense-industry-and-air-capabilities
38. NATO. (2022a). Strategic concept. Erişim tarihi: 09.10.2024, https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept
39. NATO. (2022b). New NATO force model. Erişim tarihi: 09.10.2024, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/ pdf/2022/6/pdf/220629-infographic-new-nato-force-model.pdf
40. NATO. (2023, Aralık 8). NATO’s military presence in the east of the alliance. Erişim tarihi: 18.10.2024, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm
41. Nicholson, J. vd. (2021, Mayıs 3). Defence mobilisation planning comparative study: an examination of overseas planning. RAND Corporation. Erişim tarihi: 20.10.2024, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1179-1.html
42. Oryx. (2022, Ağustos 18). The Kielbasa connection: Polish military aid to Ukraine. Erişim tarihi: 05.10.2024, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/08/the-kielbasa-connection-polish-military.html
43. Pesu, M. ve Iso-Markku, T. (2022). Finland as a NATO ally: First insights to finnish alliance policy. Finnish Foreign Policy Paper, December 2022/9, FIIA. Erişim tarihi: 06.10.2024, https://www.fiia.fi/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ffpp9_finland-as-a-nato-ally.pdf
44. Pop, V. (2009, Mart 21). EU expanding its ‘sphere of influence,’ Russia says. EU Observer. Erişim tarihi: 16.11.2024, https://euobserver. com/foreign/27827
45. Reuters. (2022, Mayıs 17). Finland’s parliament votes yes to NATO. Erişim tarihi: 18.10.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-parliament-likely-vote-nato-application-tuesday-2022-05-17/
46. RFE/RL. (2022, Kasım 23). Finnish support for NATO membership rises to 78 percent, poll shows. Erişim tarihi: 12.10.2024, https://www.rferl.org/a/finland-nato-survey-membership/32145117.html
47. Rodkiewicz, W. (2023, Mart 29). Mülakat. Warsaw, Alıntılanan yer: Pitney, T. (2023). "Poland and the Ukraine war: A geopolitical analysis". Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection. 3636. Erişim tarihi: 13.09.2024, https://digitalcollections.sit.edu/isp_collection/3636
48. Russia Security Paper Designates NATO as a Threat (2015, 31 Aralık), bbc.com, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35208636.
49. Särkkä, I. (2022, Kasım 29). Nordic security and defence brand revisited: The unutilised potential of nordic cooperation. FIIA Comment 15, The Finnish Institute of International Afairs. Erişim tarihi: 10.10.2024, https://www.fia.f/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/comment15_ nordic-security-and-defence-brand-revisited.pdf
50. Silva, C. ve Hertl, J. (2024). Poland’s reaction to the Ukraine war and its effects on the European security architecture. Infoflash, Finabel. Erişim tarihi: 11.10.2024, https://finabel.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IF-PDFs-1-2.pdf
51. Sullivan, B. (2022, Şubat 24). How NATO’s expansion helped drive Putin to invade Ukraine. NPR. Erişim tarihi: 16.11.2024, https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer
52. Switzer, T. (2024, Temmuz 26). Why NATO’s expansion explain’s Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Australian Institute of International Affairs. Analysis, Erişim tarihi: 16.11.2024, https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/why-nato-expansion-explains-russias-actions-in-ukraine/
53. Taskin, E. (2022, Ekim 12). France to boost its military presence in eastern european countries. Anadolu Ajansı. Erişim tarihi: 13.09.2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/france-to-boost-its-military-presence-in-eastern-european-countries/2708998
54. The President of the Russian Federation (2015). Security strategy of the Russian Federation. Erişim tarihi: 09.08.2024, https://is.muni.cz/el/fss/jaro2016/POL601/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf
55. The Times of Israel. (2022, Şubat 24). Macron warns Russian invasion of Ukraine a “turning point” in European history. Erişim tarihi: 01.09.2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/macron-warns-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-a-turning-point-in-european-history/
56. Waldwyn, T. (2023, Ağustos 4). Sweden’s defence industry: NATO membership promises new markets but poses challenges. International Institute for Strategic Studies. Erişim tarihi: 10.08.2024, https:// www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/08/swedens-defence-industry-nato-membership-promises-new-markets-but-poses-challenges2/
57. Wendt, A. (2012). Uluslararası siyasetin sosyal teorisi. İstanbul: Küre Yayınları.
58. Zarembaite, V., Skaluba, C. ve Dailey, A. M. (2023, Aralık 22). Navigating Sweden’s NATO membership: insights for political and operational adaptation. Atlantic Council. Erişim tarihi: 22.10.2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/ navigating-swedens-nato-membership-insights-for-political-andoperational-adaptation/