Russian Hybrid Warfare and Its Implications in The Black Sea

Yıl 2017, Cilt 1, Sayı 1, 1 - 20, 10.05.2017

Dr. Şafak Oğuz

Öz

This paper will study Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine and especially in Crimea, and analyse its implications on the Black Sea region. Although hybrid warfare is an old concept, theoretical studies of it began in Western countries mainly in the post-Cold War era, focusing on asymmetrical threats against the conventional superiority of Western countries such as the USA. The September 11th attacks and the 2006 Lebanon War played important roles in the evolution of hybrid warfare theories. Studies in Russia on hybrid warfare, which the Russians call “non-linear war,” are based primarily on lessons learned during the Color Revolutions and the Arab Spring. Hybrid warfare emerged as one of the main security issues for the West, and especially for NATO, with the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Russian military strategies that Western countries called “hybrid warfare” resulted in the successful annexation of Crimea and became a serious security issue for the West. Russian military activities during the Ukrainian crisis and the Russian annexation of Crimea also resulted in important changes in the security of the Black Sea. The crisis intensified the Russian military build-up and the military presence of NATO, especially the USA, in the region, while the Black Sea, which was intended to be a peaceful region, became a stage for a military showdown between NATO and Russia.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia, Hybrid Warfare, NATO, Black Sea, Crimea

Rus Hibrit Savaşı ve Karadeniz’deki Uygulamaları

Öz

Bu çalışma Rusya’nın Ukrayna’daki ve özellikle Kırım’daki karma savaşını incelemekte ve bunun Karadeniz’deki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Karma savaş eski bir konsept olsa da batılı devletlerdeki teori çalışmaları genel olarak ABD gibi devletlerin konvansiyonel üstünlüğüne karşı asimetrik tehditlere odaklanarak Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemde başlamıştır. 11 Eylül saldırıları ve 2016 Lübnan savaşı karma savaş teorisinin gelişiminde önemli rol oynamışlardır. Rusların “doğrusal olmayan savaş” olarak adlandırdıkları Rus karma savaşına yönelik çalışmalar esas olarak Renkli Devrimler ve Arap Baharı esnasında alınan derslere dayalı olarak şekillenmiştir. Rusya-Ukrayna krizinin başlaması ile karma savaş batı ve özellikle de NATO için temel güvenlik sorunu olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Batılı devletler tarafından karma savaş olarak adlandırılan Rus askeri stratejileri Kırım’ın başarılı bir şekilde ilhakı ile sonuçlanmış ve batı için bir önemli bir güvenlik sorunu haline gelmiştir. Rusya’nın Ukrayna krizindeki askeri faaliyetleri ve Kırım’ı ilhakı Karadeniz’in güvenliğinde önemli değişimlere yol açmıştır. Kriz bölgede Rusya’nın askeri anlamda takviyesini ve NATO’nun ve özellikle ABD’nin askeri varlığını artırırken bir dönem barış bölgesi olması amaçlanan Karadeniz NATO ve Rusya arasındaki güç gösterisi alanı haline gelmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Karma Savaş, NATO, Karadeniz, Kırım

Kaynakça

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