The relationship between foreign direct ınvestment and current account deficit: an empirical analysis for Turkey

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 87, 57 - 78, 01.04.2013

Mehmet Mercan Ziya Çağlar Yurttançıkmaz

Öz

In this study the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on current account deficit was investigated by using the quarterly data of 1991:Q4-2013:Q1 periods for Turkish economy. Economic growth variable which is an important determinative of the current account deficit was also included in the analysis. The analysis was carried out with the bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) and besides the constant model, constant and trend model was also used unlike the literature. According to the empirical findings from the study, it was determined that there was a cointegration between the variables. According to this, the effect of FDI on the current account deficit in long term analysis was found negative and statistically significant in accordance with our theoretical expectations. Furthermore, in short term analysis coefficient of error correction term was negative and statistically significant. So the deviations occurring between the variables converge to the long term balance level. However, in Toda-Yamamoto and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) short term causality analysis a one-way relationship was determined from the FDI to the growth and the current account deficit. Additionally, in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) long term causality analysis a two-way relationship was determined among the variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar-cari işlemler açığı ilişkisi: Türkiye için ampirik bir analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmada, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların cari işlemler açığı üzerindeki etkisi 1991:Q4- 2013:Q1 dönemi üç aylık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye ekonomisi için araştırılmıştır. Cari açığın önemli belirleyicisi olan ekonomik büyüme değişkeni de analize dahil edilmiştir. Analiz, Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) tarafından geliştirilen Sınır Testi yaklaşımıyla yapılmış ve literatürden farklı olarak sabitli modelin yanı sıra ve sabitli ve trendli model de kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik kanıtlara göre, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşmenin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre, uzun dönem analizinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların cari işlemler açığı üzerindeki etkisi teorik beklentilerle uyumlu bir şekilde negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Kısa dönem analizinde ise hata düzeltme teriminin katsayısı istatistiki açıdan anlamlı ve negatiftir. Dolayısıyla değişkenler arasında ortaya çıkan sapmalar uzun dönem denge düzeyine yakınsamaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) kısa dönem nedensellik analizinde, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan büyüme ve cari açığa doğru tek yönlü ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Hata Düzeltme Modeli uzun dönem nedensellik analizinde ise tüm değişkenler arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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