CAUSES EXTERNAL DEBT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN TURKEY: A MACROECONOMIC APPROACH

Öz

CAUSES EXTERNAL DEBT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN TURKEY: A MACROECONOMIC APPROACH.................................................................................

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ECM, ARDL
• ARDL
• ECM

CAUSES EXTERNAL DEBT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN TURKEY: A MACROECONOMIC APPROACH

Öz

ABSTRACT The study investigated the reasons of the external debt stock of the private sector using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis with quaterly data in the period of 2000-2016 in Turkey. According to the ARDL results of Model 1, in which examined reasons of the short run external debt stock of the private sector; there are positive relationship between short run external debt stock, budget deficit, real exchange rate and import volume in the long period. Beside, budget deficit has stronger impact on the short run external debt stock than the other variables. Other side external interest rate’s effects is weak and negative on the short run external debt of the private sector. ARDL results of the Model 2 in which examined reasons of the long run external debt stock of the private sector; there is positive relationship between foreign interest rate, economic stability, fixed capital expenditure, export volume and long run external debt stock in the long period. Other side, there is negative relationship between real exchange rate and long run external debt stock. Economic stability has stronger impact than the other variables on the long run external debt. ECM results of Model 1 and Model 2 was showed that imbalance in the short run will improve in the long run for both models.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• External Debt of the Turkish Private Sector
• Short Run External Debt
• Long Run External Debt
• ARDL
• ECM

Kaynakça

1. REFERENCES
2. Abdelhafidh, S. (2011) "Saving, Debt Inflows, and Growth Nexus in Tunisia", Saving and Development, 35(1): 29-53.
3. Akduğan, U. (2017) "Determinants of the External Debt Stock in Turkey", Business and Ekonomics Research Journal, 8(2): 183-202.
4. Akkaya, A. T. (2010) "International Debt Crises and Sustainability of External Debt of Turkey", (Master Thesis), Çukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, Adana.
5. Al-Fawwaz, T. M. (2016) "Determinants of External Debt in Jordan: an Empirical Study (1990-2014)", International Business Research, 9(7): 116-123.
6. Awan, A., Asghar, N. and Rehman, H. U. (2011, June) "The Impact of Exchange Rate, Fiscal Deficit and Terms of Trade on External Debt of Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis", Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(3): 10-24.
7. Bank Of England (2017) https://www.bankofengland.co.uk /boeapps/database/ bank-rate.asp (10.01.2018)
8. Central Bank of Turkey Republic (2017) http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/ , (10.01.2018)

9. Central Bank of Turkey Republic, EVDS (2017) https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/ , (10.01.2018)
10. Cordella, T., Ricci, L. A. and Arranz, M. R. (2005, December) "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link", IMF Working Paper, 223(5): 1-55.
11. Dayar, H. and Sandalcı, İ. (2017) "The Development of Private Sector External Debt in Turkey and Impact on the Economy", International Journal of Economic Studies, 3(3): 369-382.
12. Dücan, E. (2017, Haziran) "Impact of Foreign Financial Debt of Private Sector on Real Sector and Export", Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Journal of the Institute of Educational Sciences, 9(19): 22-41.
13. Dücan, E. and Bakan, S. (2015) "Effects of the Short-Term Borrowing By the Private Sector on The Real Sector: Example of Holland Syndrome", Academic Review International Refereed Journal of Social Sciences (52): 164-185.
14. Edo, S. E. (2002) "The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco", Wiley Online Library, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00052.
15. Erdem, E., Akdemir, T. and İlgün, F. (2014) "Relationship Between Debt Crisis and Central Bank Independence: Panel Data Analysis for Euro-Zone Countries", The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, 10(1): 61-81.
16. Hajivassiliou, V. A. (1987) "The External Debt Repayments Problems of LDC's: An Economic Model Based on Panel Data", Journal of Econometrics, 36(1): 205-230.
17. Hallak, I. (2009, May) "External Debt to the Private Sector and the Price Of Bank Loans", Carefin Working Paper, 9(8): 1-23.
18. Imimole, B., Imoughele, L. E. and Okhuese, M. A. (2014) "Determinants and Sustainability of External Debt in a Deregulated Economy: A Cointegration Analysis From Nigeria (1986-2010)", American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4(6): 201-2014.
19. Kara, M. (2001) "External Debt Stalemate in Turkey's Economic Growth Process", Suleyman Demirel University the Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 6(1): 95-110.
20. Karagöl, E. T. (2010, August) "Past to Present External Debt in Turkey", Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplumsal Araştırmalar Vakfı, 1-32.
21. Lane, P. R. (2004) "Empirical Perspectives on Long-Term External Debt", Topics in Macroeconomics, 4(1): 1-30.
22. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001) "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship", Journal of Applied Economics, 16(3): 289-326, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
23. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Public Debt Management Reports (2017) https://m.hazine.gov.tr/file/index?id=9e197ba3-9fc7-4c85-ae3f-667386f46599, (10.01.2018)
24. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Debt Indicators (2018) https://www.hazine.gov.tr/file/index?id=e71434ab-77b9-4cbf-94b8-c5e9c3345eed, (10.01.2018)
25. Schclarek, A. (2004) "Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries", Lund University Department of Economics Working, PO Box 7082, S-220 07, 1.
26. Sürekçi Yamaçlı, D. (2017) "Türkiye'de Parasal İstikrar ve 1923 Yılından Günümüze Para Politikasındaki Gelişmeler", Ankara: Nobel Publishing.
27. Sürekçi Yamaçlı, D. and Saatçi, M. (2017) "Economic Determinants of Consumer Inflation in Turkey: ARDL Analysis", Business and Economics Research Journal, 7(3): 53-71.
28. Tiruneh, M. W. (2004) "An Empirical Exploration into the Determinants of External Indebtedness" Prague Economic Papers, 13(3): 261-277.
29. Udoka, C. O. and Anyingang, R. A. (2010) "Relationship Between External Debt Management Policies and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1970-2006)", International Journal of Financial Research, 1(1): 2-13.
30. World Bank (1990) “Turkey - Debt Management and Borrowing Strategy under Macroeconomic Adjustment”, Washington, DC.