PARA, AYRIŞTIRILMIŞ KREDİLER, KONUT FİYATLARI VE GSYH ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 2005Ç4 – 2019Ç3 döneminde, para arzı, krediler, konut fiyatları, para politikası ve GSYH arasındaki dinamik ilişki Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Krediler, literatürden farklı olarak, GSYH’yı etkileyen üretken krediler ve GSYH’yı etkilemeyen varlık kredileri olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda varlık kredilerinin, üretken kredilerin Granger nedeni olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, konut fiyatlarına ilişkin teminat etkisinin de ortaya çıktığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Arzı
• Ayrıştırılmış Krediler
• Konut Fiyatları
• Granger Nedensellik

THE CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MONEY, DISAGGREGATED CREDITS, HOUSE PRICES, AND GDP

Abstract

In this study examines evidence of the dynamic relationships between money supply, credits, house prices, monetary policy, and GDP in Turkey over the period of 2005 Q4 – 2019 Q3. The paper uses Granger Causality Test. Unlike the literature, credits are disaggregated into productive credits which are affecting GDP and asset credits which are not affecting GDP. The results of the analysis show that asset credits Granger causes productivite credits. Furthermore, it is concluded that the collateral effect regarding housing prices are also emerged.

Keywords

• Money Supply
• Disaggregated Credits
• Housing Prices
• Granger Causality

Kaynakça

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