Nüfusun Yaşlanmasının Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişleri Üzerine Etkisi: ASEAN-5 Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Küresel yaşlanma problemi, beraberindeki ekonomik etkileri kapsamında sıklıkla tartışılmakta ve araştırma konusu olmaktadır. Nüfusun yaşlanmasının doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerine etkileri de bu kapsamda ilgi çekici bir diğer konudur. Bu çalışmanın amacı nüfus yaşlanmasının doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerine etkisinin araştırılmasıdır. Belirtilen amaç doğrultusunda ASEAN-5 ülkeleri olarak bilinen Malezya, Endonezya, Filipinler, Singapur ve Tayland’a ait 1970-2019 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak dengeli panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Nüfus yaşlılığı göstergeleri olarak yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ve 65 yaş ve üzeri nüfusun toplam nüfus içindeki payı kullanılmıştır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (net girişler) bağımlı değişken olup çalışmaya gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ve ticari açıklık oranı gibi kontrol değişkenleri dahil edilmiştir. Yapılan panel veri analizi sonucunda ASEAN-5 ülkelerinde nüfus yaşlılığı arttıkça (yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ve 65 yaş ve üzeri nüfusun toplam nüfus içindeki payı arttıkça) doğrudan yabancı yatırımların arttığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• nüfus yaşlılığı
• doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• ASEAN-5 ülkeleri
• panel veri analizi

The Effect of Population Ageing on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Panel Data Analysis on ASEAN-5 Countries

Öz

The problem of global aging is frequently discussed and researched within the scope of its accompanying economic effects.The effects of population aging on foreign direct investment inflows is another interesting issue in this context.The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of population aging on foreign direct investment inflows.For the stated purpose, balanced panel data analysis was conducted using data covering the period from 1970 to 2019 belonging to Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, known as ASEAN-5 countries.The age dependency ratio (old) and the share of the population aged 65 and over in the total population were used as indicators of population aging.Foreign direct investment (net inflows) is the dependent variable and control variables such as gross fixed capital formation and trade openness are included in the study.As a result of the panel data analysis, it was found that foreign direct investments increased as the population aged in ASEAN-5 countries increased (as the age dependency ratio (old) and the share of the population aged 65 and over increased in the total population).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• population ageing
• foreign direct investments
• ASEAN-5 countries
• panel data analysis

Kaynakça

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