Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Emeklilik Fonları, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 51 - 64, 01.06.2017

Yılmaz Bayar

Öz

Dünyada sağlık alanındaki gelişmeler ve refah artışı bireylerin yaşam beklentisini artırırken, doğurganlık oranı düşme ve yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ise artma eğilimindedir. Söz konusu gelişmeler, büyük ölçüde dağıtım sistemine dayalı kamu emeklilik sistemlerinin finansal sürdürülebilirliğini tehlikeye düşürmüş ve kamu bütçe dengesini olumsuz etkilemiştir. Bunun sonucunda birçok ülke tek ayaklı emeklilik sistemlerini, bireysel emeklilik planları ve işyeri bazlı emeklilik planları ile desteklemiş, emeklilik fonlarının sahip oldukları varlıkların büyüklüğü ve değeri önemli miktarda artmıştır. Bu çalışmada nedensellik analizi kullanılarak 2002-2016 döneminde yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde emeklilik fonları, finansal sektörün gelişimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik etkileşimi incelenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi emeklilik fonları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında iki yönlü, finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye tek yönlü, finansal gelişmeden emeklilik fonlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Emeklilik Fonları, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Pension Funds, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Causality Analysis

Öz

Pension Funds, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Causality AnalysisFertility rate is on the downward trend and age dependency ratio is on the rise trend, while the developments in healthcare and welfare increase in the world raise the life expectancy of the individuals. The aforementioned developments endangered the financial sustainability of the public pension systems largely based on pay as you go system and negatively affected public sector budget. As a consequence, many countries supported their one-tiered pension system with private pension plans and occupational pension plans and the size and value of the pension funds’ assets have raised considerably. This study researches the causal interaction among pension funds, financial sector development, and economic growth in emerging market economies over the 2002-2016 period with causality analysis. The causality analysis revealed a two-way causality between pension funds and economic growth, and a one-way causality from financial development to the economic growth and from financial development to the pension funds

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pension Funds, Financial Development, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

• Akgiray, V., Peksevim, S., Şener, E. (2016). Emeklilik Fonları ve Finansal İs- tikrar: Şili ve Türkiye Örneklerinden Dersler. Finans ve Bankacılık Çalışmaları Dergisi, 5(2):1-20. DOI: 10.20525/ijfbs.v5i2.267
• Bayar, Y. (2016). Individual Pension Funds and Capital Market Development in Turkey. Review of Economic and Business Studies, 9(2):95-109. DOI: 10.1515/rebs-2016-0036
• Bijlsma, M., Bonekamp, J., van Ewijk, C., Haaijen, F. (2018). Funded Pensions and Economic Growth. De Economist, 166:337–362. DOI: 10.1007/s10645- 018-9325-z
• Birleşmiş Milletler Ekonomik ve Sosyal İşler Dairesi Başkanlığı (2017a). World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision: Key Findings and Advance Tables, Birleşmiş Milletler: New York, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/fi- les/wpp2017_keyfindings.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2019)
• Birleşmiş Milletler Ekonomik ve Sosyal İşler Dairesi Başkanlığı (2017b). World Fertility Data 2017, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/ publications/dataset/fertility/wfd2017.shtml (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2019)
• Breusch, T. S., Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Ap- plications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1):239–53.
• Cihák, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., Levine, R. (2012). Benchmarking Financial Systems around the World.” Policy Research Working Paper 6175, World Bank, Washington, DC.
• Davis, E.P., Hu, Y-W (2005). Is There a Link between Pension-fund Assets and Economic Growth?-A Cross-country Study. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/ viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.509.330&rep=rep1&type=pd, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.01.2019).
• Dumitrescu, E. I., Hurlin, C., (2012). Testing for Granger Noncausality in He- terogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4):1450-1460. DOI: 10.1016/j. econmod.2012.02.014
• Dünya Bankası (2019a). Age dependency ratio (% of working-age popula- tion), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND?view=chart (Eri- şim Tarihi: 08.01.2019)
• Dünya Bankası (2019b). GDP per capita growth (annual %), https://data. worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG (Erişim Tarihi: 08.01.2019)
• Dünya Bankası (2019c). Global Financial Development Database, https:// www.worldbank.org/en/publication/gfdr/data/global-financial-develop- ment-database (Erişim Tarihi: 08.01.2019)
• Enache, C., Raisa-Miloş, L., Miloş, M.C. (2015). Pension Reform and Capital Market Development in Central and Eastern European Count- ries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 28(1):75-84. DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2015.1022388
• Holzmann, R. (1997). On Economic Benefits and Fiscal Requirements of Mo- ving from Unfunded to Funded Pensions. Chile: Economic Commission for La- tin America and Caribbean http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/5250 (02.01.2019)
• Farayibi, A.O (2016). The funded pension scheme and economic growth in Nigeria, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2836965 (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2019)
• Granger, C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Mo- dels and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3):424-438. DOI: 10.2307/1912791
• Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., Rosen, S. (1988). Estimating Vector Autoregres- sion with Panel Data. Econometrica, 56:1371-1395.
• IMF (2019). Financial Development Index Database, http://data.imf. org/?sk=F8032E80-B36C-43B1-AC26-493C5B1CD33B (Erişim Tarihi: 08.01.2019)
• Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heteroge- neous Panels. Journal of Economics, 115(1):53-74. DOI: /10.1016/S0304- 4076(03)00092-7
• Impavido, G., Musalem, A.R., Tressel, T. (2003), The Impact of Contractual Savings Institutions on Securities Markets. World Bank Policy Research Wor- king Paper 2948, Washington: World Bank.
• Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 23(6):978–992. DOI: 10.1016/j.econ- mod.2006.04.008
• Meng, C., Pfau, W.D. (2010). The Role of Pension Funds in Capital Market Development. GRIPS Discussion Paper 10-17, Tokyo: National Graduate Ins- titute for Policy Studies http://www.grips.ac.jp/r-center/en/discussion_pa- pers/10-17/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2019)
• MSCI (2018). MSCI Emerging Markets Index, https://www.msci.com/emer- ging-markets (Erişim Tarihi: 02.01.2019)
• OECD (2017). Pensions at a Glance 2017: OECD and G20 Indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI:10.1787/pension_glance-2017-en
• OECD (2018). Pension Funds in Figures, https://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/pri- vate-pensions/Pension-Funds-in-Figures-2018.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 09.01.2019)
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross-section Depen- dence in Panels. University of Cambridge Working Paper CWPE 0435.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2):265-312. DOI: 10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11:105-127. DOI: 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
• Pesaran, M.H., Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142:50-93. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeco- nom.2007.05.010
• Sun, S., Hu, J. (2014). The Impact of Pension Systems on Financial Develop- ment: An Empirical Study. Michael Faure and Niels Philipsen (ed) The Role of Law and Regulation in Sustaining Financial Markets, Routledge. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2481749
• Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development, IMF Working Paper WP/16/5, https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1605.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 08.01.2019)
• Thomas, A., Spataro, L., Mathew, N. (2014). Pension Funds and Stock Mar- ket Volatility: An Empirical Analysis of OECD Countries. Journal of Financial Stability, 11: 92-103. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2014.01.001
• Willis Towers Watson (2018). Thinking Ahead Institute: Global Pension As- sets Study 2018, https://www.willistowerswatson.com/-/media/WTW/Ima- ges/Press/2018/01/Global-Pension-Asset-Study-2018-Japan.pdf (Erişim Tari- hi: 05.01.2019)
• Zandberg, E., Spierdijk, L. (2014). Funding of Pensions and Economic Growth: Are they really Related? Journal of Pension Economics & Finance, 12(2):151- 167. DOI