Özel Sektöre Verilen Krediler-Finansal Gelişmişlik Düzeyi Arasındaki Bağlantıda Enflasyonun Eşik Etkisine İlişkin Kanıtlar

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 46 - 64, 24.06.2025

Kenan İlarslan

https://doi.org/10.46520/bddkdergisi.1723996

Öz

Reel sektöre fonların aktarılmasına aracılık eden finansal sistemin rolü, sermaye kaynaklarının verimli
kullanılması açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu motivasyondan hareketle çalışmanın amacı, yükselen
ve gelişmekte olan 54 ülke bağlamında 2002-2021 döneminde enflasyon oranına bağlı olarak finansal
gelişmişlik düzeyinin özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi krediler üzerindeki etkisini belirlemektir. Hukukun
üstünlüğü ise kontrol değişkeni olarak çalışmada kullanılmıştır. Eşik regresyon modeli çerçevesinde
yapılan analizlerden elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar enflasyon oranının, finansal gelişmişlik düzeyi ile özel
sektöre verilen krediler arasındaki ilişkide tek bir eşik etkisine sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre
%3.14 ve altındaki enflasyon döneminde finansal gelişmişliğin özel sektöre verilen krediler üzerindeki
etkisi pozitif yönlüdür. %3.14 üstündeki enflasyon dönemlerinde ise finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin özel
sektör kredileri üzerindeki etkisi yine pozitif olmakla birlikte daha azdır. Bu bulgulara göre enflasyon
düzeyine bağlı olarak finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin yükselen ve gelişen ekonomilerde özel sektöre
verilen krediler üzerinde doğrusal olmayan bir etkiye sahip olduğuna dair ampirik kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır.
Ayrıca hukukun üstünlüğü değişkeni ise örneklemdeki ülkelerde özel sektöre verilen kredileri artırıcı
yönde bir etkiye sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi krediler , Finansal gelişmişlik düzeyi , Hukukun üstünlüğü , Enflasyon , Panel eşik regresyon

Kaynakça

• 1) Adugna, H. (2019). Does Inflation Hamper Domestic Credit to Private Sector in Ethiopia? International Journal of Economic Development, 13 (1): 68-94
• 2) Ali, M. U., Abbasi, S. G., Abbas, M. & Dastgeer, G. (2020). Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate on the Private Sector Credit of Pakistan. Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, 6 (4): 1133-1138
• 3) Alnabulsi, K., Kozareviç, E. & Hâkimi, A. (2022). Assessing the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Under Financial Crisis and Health Crisis: Evidence From the MENA Banks. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10:1, 2124665. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2124665
• 4) Alomari, M., Selmi, R., Mensi, W., Ko, H. U. & Kang, S. H. (2024). Dynamic Spillovers in Higher Moments and Jumps Across ETFs and Economic and Financial Uncertainty Factors in the Context of Successive Shocks. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 93: 210-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. qref.2023.12.009
• 5) Al-Saadi, A. S. A. & Khudari, M. (2024). The Dynamic Relationship Between Good Governance, Fiscal Policy, and Sustainable Economic Growth in Oman. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(5): 1-20. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i5.3557
• 6) Alzyadat, J. A. (2021). Sectoral Banking Credit Facilities and Non-Oil Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8 (2): 809-820. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no2.0809
• 7) Anakpo, G., Xhate, Z., & Mishi, S. (2023). The Policies, Practices, and Challenges of Digital Financial Inclusion for Sustainable Development: The Case of the Developing Economy. FinTech, 2 (2): 327-343. https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech2020019
• 8) Asante, G. N., Takyi, P. O. & Mensah, G. (2023) The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Does Institutional Quality Matter? Development Studies Research, 10 (1):1- 14. https://doi.org/10.1080/21665095.2022.2156904
• 9) Ayeni, R. K. (2020). Determinants of Private Sector Investment in a Less Developed Country: A Case of the Gambia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8 (1): 1794279, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1794 279
• 10) Batayneh, K., Al Salamat, W. & Momani, M. Q. M. (2021) The Impact of Inflation on the Financial Sector Development: Empirical Evidence from Jordan. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1). https://doi.org/ 10.1080/23322039.2021.1970869
• 11) Bekana, D. M. (2023). Governance Quality and Financial Development in Africa. World Development Sustainability, 2: 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2023.100044
• 12) Bekele, T. D. & Degu, A. A. (2023). The Effect of Financial Sector Development on Economic Growth of Selected Sub-Saharan Africa Countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28: 2834-2842. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2566
• 13) Beyene, A.B. (2024). Governance Quality and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Dynamic Panel Model. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 40(2): 404-418. https://doi.org/10.1108/ JEAS-08-2021-0156
• 14) Bilalli, A. & Sadiku, M. (2023). The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance: Evidence from Western Balkan Countries. SEEU Review, 18 (2): 74-89. https://doi.org/10.2478/seeur-2023-0071
• 15) Boyd, J. H., Levine, R. & Smith, B. D. (2001). The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47: 221-248
• 16) Danladi, S., Prasad, M. S. V., Modibbo, U. M., Ahmadi, S. A., & Ghasemi, P. (2023). Attaining Sustainable Development Goals through Financial Inclusion: Exploring Collaborative Approaches to Fintech Adoption in Developing Economies. Sustainability, 15 (17): 13039. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151713039
• 17) Dima, B., Barna, F. & Nachescu, M. L. (2018). Does Rule of Law Support the Capital Market? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 31 (1): 461-479. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1432371
• 18) Djankov, S., McLiesh, C. & Shleifer, A. (2007). Private Credit in 129 Countries. Journal of Financial Economics, 84: 299-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.03.004
• 19) Dritsaki, M. ve Dritsaki, C. (2024). The Relationship Between Health Expenditure, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth in G7: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Data. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15: 4886-4911. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01349-y
• 20) Fengju, X. & Wubishet, A. (2024). Analysis of the Impacts of Financial Development on Economic Growth in East Africa: How Do the Institutional Qualities Matter? Economic Analysis and Policy, 82: 1177– 1189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.04.002
• 21) Gharbi, S. & Othmani, H. (2022) Threshold Effect in the Relationship Between Family Ownership and Firm Performance: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Analysis. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1): 1-15. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/23322039.2021.2023264
• 22) Ghosh, S. & Saha, S. K. (2025). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Institutional Quality. Sustainable Economies. 3(1):1-30. https://doi. org/10.62617/se389
• 23) Gizaw, T., Getachew, Z. & Mancha, M. (2024). Sectoral Allocations of Domestic Credit and Their Effects on Economic Growth in Ethiopia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12 (1): 2390949, https://doi.org/10 .1080/23322039.2024.2390949
• 24) Haque, M. I. (2020). The Growth of Private Sector and Financial Development in Saudi Arabia. Economies, 8 (2): 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8020039
• 25) Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing and Inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93 (2): 345-368.
• 26) İlarslan, K., & Yıldız, M. (2022). Yenilenebilir Enerji Yatırımlarının Finansal Belirleyicileri Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz: Asya-Pasifik ve Latin Amerika Ülkeleri. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal (BMIJ), 10 (4): 1397-1415, https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v10i4.2170
• 27) Jammeh, I. Y. (2022). The Relationship between Domestic Credit, Financial Development and Economic Growth in the Gambia. International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, 10 (2): 43-60. https:// doi.org/10.33094/ijssp.v10i2.598
• 28) Jungo, J., Madaleno, M. & Botelho, A. (2024). The Role of Financial Inclusion and Institutional Factors on Banking Stability in Developing Countries. International Journal of Development Issues, 23(3): 361-377. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-09-2023-0233
• 29) Karış, C. & Çil, D. (2024). The Covid-19 Pandemic’s Impact on the Performance of Firms on the BIST 100 Index. Istanbul Business Research, 53 (1):103-118. http://doi.org/10.26650/ibr.2024.53.1094981
• 30) Katusiime, L. (2018). Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility. Economies, 6 (2): 28. https://doi. org/10.3390/economies6020028
• 31) Kazak, H. (2023). Banka Kredileri ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki Katılım Bankaları Açısından da Geçerli mi? Türkiye Üzerine Fourier İşlevli Bir Nedensellik Analizi. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 15 (4): 2527-2542.
• 32) Khan, M. A., Khan, M. A., Khan, M. A., Hussain, S. & Fenyves, V. (2024). Justice and Finance: Does Judicial Efficiency Contribute to Financial System Efficiency? Borsa Istanbul Review, 24 (2): 248-255. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2023.12.013.
• 33) Koçbulut, Ö., & Altıntaş, H. (2019). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme: OECD Ülkeleri için Panel Eşik Değer Analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 54: 89- 113. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.496315
• 34) Korkmaz, O., & Korkmaz, S. (2023). The Relationship between The Domestic Credit Volume Created by The Banking Sector And Economic Growth in The Turkish Economy: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8 (3): 622-632. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1255446
• 35) Li, H., Abbas, Q., Ramzan, M. & Fatima, S. (2024). Impact of Domestic Investment on Domestic Credit Level. Does Institutional Quality Matter?. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1-35. https://doi. org/10.1007/s13132-024-02466-y
• 36) Muhammad, S. & Long, X. (2021). Rule of Law and CO2 Emissions: A Comparative Analysis Across 65 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 279, 1-11. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123539
• 37) Musah, M., Boateng, F., Kumah, E.A. & Adebayo, T. S. (2024). Financial Flows and Environmental Quality in ECOWAS Member States: Accounting for Residual Cross-Sectional Dependence and Slope Heterogeneity. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26: 1195–1228. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10668-022-02755-z
• 38) Nana, P. V. N. (2014). Legal Rights, Information Sharing, and Private Credit: New Cross-Country Evidence. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54: 315-323. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. qref.2014.02.002
• 39) Nasir, M. H. & Zhang, S. (2024). Evaluating Innovative Factors of the Global Innovation Index: A Panel Data Approach. Innovation and Green Development, 3: 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.igd.2023.100096
• 40) Ndoricimpa, A. (2020). Threshold Effects of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Africa: A New Evidence. Journal of Economics and Development, 22(2):187-207. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-01-2020-0001
• 41) Olorogun, L.A. (2024). Modelling Financial Development in the Private Sector, FDI, and Sustainable Economic Growth in sub-Saharan Africa: ARDL Bound Test-FMOLS, DOLS Robust Analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15: 8416–8434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01224-w
• 42) Olowofeso, E. O., Adeleke, A. O. & Udoji, A. O. (2015). Impact of Private Sector Credit on Economic Growth in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, The Central Bank of Nigeria, 06 (2): 81-101
• 43) Osei, M. J. & Kim, J. (2023). Financial Development and the Growth Effect of Foreign Direct Investment: Does One Size Fit All? International Economics, 173: 276-283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. inteco.2023.01.001
• 44) Osei-Tutu, F. & Weill, L. (2023). Democracy Favors Access to Credit of Firms. European Journal of Political Economy, 77: 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102312
• 45) Ozili, P. K., Oladipo, O. & Iorember, P. (2023). Effect of Abnormal Increase in Credit Supply on Economic Growth in Nigeria. MPRA Paper, No,. 115988. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115988/
• 46) Ozili, P. K. & Ndah, H. (2024). Impact of Financial Development on Bank Profitability. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 40 (2): 238-262. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-07-2021-0140
• 47) Öncel, A., Saidmurodov, S. & Kutlar, A. (2024) Financial Development, Export and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Commonwealth of Independent States. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 33 (1): 29-56. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2022.2164045
• 48) Reddy, K., Mubeen, S., Raju, K. K. H., Jalaja, V. & Basha, M. (2023). Does the Performance of Banking Sector Promote Economic Growth? A Time Series Analysis. International Journal of Professionel Business Review. 8 (6): 1-20. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i6.2128
• 49) Sekmen, T., & Topuz, S. G. (2020). Türkiye’de Kredi Büyümesinin Belirleyicilerinin Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testiyle Analizi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 11 (4): 969-988.
• 50) Sinha, N. & Shastri, S. (2023). Does Financial Development Matter for Domestic Investment? Empirical Evidence from India. South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 12 (1): 104-126. https://doi. org/10.1108/SAJBS-09-2020-0332
• 51) Sunday, O. A., Wanujeh, Z. & Ali, H. (2024). Institutional Factors and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research. 10(11): 186-196.
• 52) Stef, N., Soula, J. L. & Pourchet, A. (2022). Legislative Inflation and Private Credit. Revue d’économie Politique, 132 (6): 985-1012.
• 53) Tinoco-Zermeno, M. A., Torres-Preciado, V. H. & Venegas-Martínez, F. (2022). Inflation and Bank Credit. Investigación Administrativa, 51(129): 1-20.
• 54) Valizadeh, P., Fischer, B. L. & Bryant, H. L. (2024). SNAP Enrollment Cycles: New Insights from Heterogeneous Panel Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 106 (1): 354-381. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12390
• 55) Vurur, N. S., & Yıldız, M. (2023). İşletme Kredilerinin Ekonomik Belirleyicilerinin Parametrik Olmayan Bir Yaklaşımla Analizi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8 (1): 176-189. https://doi. org/10.29106/fesa.1227639
• 56) Wang, K., & Liew, V. K.-S. (2024). The Impact of Vertical Fiscal Imbalances and Local Government Tax Efforts on the Quality of Economic Development—A Study Based on Threshold Regression and Simultaneous Equation Models. Sustainability, 16(8), 3173. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083173
• 57) Wang, Q. & Wang, L. (2021). The Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging, Industrial Structure, and Urbanization on Carbon Emissions: A Panel Threshold Regression Analysis of 137 Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 287,1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125381
• 58) Wen, X., Mennig, P. & Sauer, J. (2025). Assessing the Regime-Switching Role of Risk Mitigation Measures on Agricultural Vulnerability: A Threshold Analysis. Ecological Economics, 227: 1-19. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108360
• 59) Were, M., Nzomoi, J. & Rutto, N. (2012). Assessing the Impact of Private Sector Credit on Economic Performance: Evidence from Sectoral Panel Data for Kenya. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4 (3): 182-190. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v4n3p182