COINTEGRATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND THE INCREASE IN CONSUMER CREDITS: A STUDY SPECIFIC TO TURKEY (2015:M2-2020:M2)

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 40 - 51, 31.12.2023

Müşerref Arık

Öz

The increased use of consumer loans arises as a result of the people' increased demand for cash as a result of the economy's recessions. While the rising need for cash raised the demand for bank loans, which are the quickest and easiest approach, it also increased the number of people who used loans. Although the causes influencing loan utilization occur on an economic basis, rising unemployment rates may be identified as one of the most significant drivers of the given condition. Although the increase in unemployment rates may be attributed to a lack of work, it is expected that individuals would resort to consumer loans to meet their economic demands. The association between the growth in unemployment rates and the increase in consumer loans in the data range 2015:M2-2020:M2 was examined based on the related hypothesis. The study employed the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test, the Fourier ADF test, and the Johansen Cointegration test. As a consequence of the study, the long-term link between the two variables has been established, and it is advised to develop political arrangements based on the concept of expanding employment while decreasing credit demand.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment Rates, Consumer Loans, Johansen Cointegration Test, Fourier Analysis, Augmented Dickey Fuller

İŞSİZLİK ORANLARI VE TÜKETİCİ KREDİLERİNDEKİ ARTIŞ ARASINDA EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖZELİNDE BİR İNCELEME (2015:M2-2020:M2)

Öz

Tüketici kredisi kullanımındaki artış, ekonomide meydana gelen gerilemeler sonucunda vatandaşlar tarafından nakit ihtiyacının artması sonucunda meydana gelmektedir. Artan nakit ihtiyacı en hızlı ve kolay yöntem olan banka kredilerine talebi arttırırken, kredi kullanan kişi sayısında da yukarı yönlü bir hareketlenmeyi beraberinde getirmiştir. Kredi kullanımını etkileyen nedenler ekonomik tabanda yer bulmakla birlikte, ifade edilen durumun en büyük etkileyicileri arasında artan işsizlik oranları gösterilebilecektir. İşsizlik oranlarındaki artış, istihdam yetersizliği ile açıklanabilecek olmakla birlikte ilgili durumun ekonomik gereksinimler nedeniyle vatandaşların tüketici kredilerine yöneleceğini düşündürmektedir. İlgili düşünceden hareketle çalışma dahilinde 2015:M2-2020:M2 veri aralığında işsizlik oranlarındaki artış ve tüketici kredilerindeki artış değişkenleri arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Augmented Dickey Fuller birim kök testi, Fourier ADF testi ve Johansen Eşbütünleşme testinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda iki değişken arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi ispat edilmiş olup istihdamı arttırma anlayışı temelinde politik düzenlemeler gerçekleştirilmesi kredi kullanımına olan talebin azaltılması noktasında önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik Oranları, Tüketici Kredileri, Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi, Fourier Analizi, Augmented Dickey Fuller

Kaynakça

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