MONETARY VS FISCAL DOMINANCE IN TURKISH PUBLIC FINANCES

Öz

The interactive roles of monetary and fiscal policies are represented by two competing theories in the literature. The advocates of the first theory, the monetarist view, argue that the fiscal authorities tune the primary balance in an attempt to preserve the fiscal solvency for each price level. On the contrary, the proponents of the new approach assert that the fiscal authorities are able to set primary surplus without making a binding commitment to restore solvency. In this study, the purpose is to figure out which approach is valid for Turkish public finances. To accomplish this objective, we run a model based on Bohn (1998) using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method so as to determine the type of regime prevalent in the Turkish economy. Besides, we run a Toda-Yamamoto type causality analysis to detect the direction of causality among public debt and primary balances. The results from both analyses reveal that the Turkish public finances are characterised by monetary dominant regimes which indicate that the fiscal solvency is restored by primary balance alterations by a set of active fiscal policy actions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARDL
• Toda-Yamamoto
• Monetary Dominance

TÜRK KAMU MALİYESİNDE PARASAL VE MALİ BASKINLIK

Öz

Para ve maliye politikalarının etkileşimli rolleri, literatürde iki teori tarafından temsil edilmektedir. İlk teori olan monetarist görüşün savunucularına göre, mali otorite her bir fiyat seviyesi için bütçe dengesini korumak amacıyla faiz dışı dengeyi optimize etmeyi amaçlarlar. Aksine, yeni yaklaşımın savunucuları, mali otoritelerin ödeme gücünü yeniden sağlamak için bağlayıcı bir taahhütte bulunmadan faiz dışı fazla verebildiğini ve böylelikle para politikası araçlarını mali amaçlar için kullanılabileceğini savunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada amacımız, Türk kamu maliyesi için hangi yaklaşımın geçerli olduğunu ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu amaca ulaşmak için, Türkiye ekonomisinde geçerli olan rejim türünü belirlemek için ARDL yöntemini kullanarak Bohn (1998) temelli bir model çalıştırıyoruz. Ayrıca kamu borçları ve faiz dışı dengeler arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünü tespit etmek için Toda-Yamamoto tipi nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Her iki analizden elde edilen bulgularımız, Türk kamu maliyesinin, mali ödeme gücünün bir dizi aktif maliye politikası eylemiyle faiz dışı denge değişiklikleriyle restore edildiğini gösteren parasal baskın rejimlerle karakterize olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mali baskınlık
• Parasalcı Baskınlık
• ARDL
• Toda-Yamamoto

Kaynakça

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