Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Mathematical Modeling of Cyber Attack and Defense

Yıl 2022, , 10 - 16, 01.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.54047/bibted.997908

Öz

In this paper, a new game formulation is proposed that combines simulation and game-theoretical approaches to the application of security games in cyberspace. The model presented here builds upon a security economic approach that models the adversary and defender motives and goals in the context of empirically derived countermeasure efficacy metrics. The approach is based on a two-player strategic game to determine optimal strategy selection for both adversary and defender. Besides, not only the solution to the game but also a mathematical and graphical representation of “what if” scenarios in the context of the game.
In this study, it has been shown that game-theoretic calculations can serve as a useful tool for identifying effective strategies in cyberwar games. For scenarios that need to penetrate multiple layers in a defense-in-depth security configuration, the calculation of the attacker's and defensive costs and the probability of infiltration requires the presence of cost-benefit matrices and probability matrices. Inspection of the matrices allows players to deduce preferred strategies based on game-theoretical equilibrium solutions. The matrices also help in analyzing the anticipated effects of potential human-based choices of wargame strategies and counter-strategies. Also, a mathematical game-theoretical form has been defined. This paper shows how game-theoretical calculations can indeed provide a useful tool for effective decision-making during cyber wars.

Kaynakça

  • Eren, H. Gençoğlu, M. T. Yenal, S. (2020 )Strateji ve Güvenlik Alanında Temel ve Güncel Yaklaşımlar “Siber Savaş”. Nobel Yayınları.
  • Do, C. T. Tran, N. H. Hong, C. Kamhoua, C. A. Kwiat, K. A. Blasch, E. Ren, S. Pissinou, N. Iyengar, S. S.( 2017) Game theory for cybersecurity and privacy. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 50(2), 30.
  • Sokri, A. (2019) Game Theory and Cyber Defense. Games in Management Science (pp. 335-352). Springer.
  • Guseinov, K.G. Akyar, E. Düzce, S.A. (2010) Oyun Teorisi. Seçkin yayınları.
  • Kiekintveld, C. Lisy, V. Pibil, R. (2015) Game-theoretic foundations for the strategic use of honeypots in network security. In Cyber warfare (pp. 81–101). Springer.
  • Osborne, M. J. (2004) An Introduction to Game Theory. Oxford University Press.
  • Shoham Y.and Leyton-Brown. K. (2009) MultiagentSystems: Algorithmic, Game-Theoretic, and Logical Foundations. Cambridge University Press.
  • Harsanyi, J. (1967) Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players, I-III, Part I, the Basic Model”, Management Science, Vol 14(3), pp. 159–182.
  • Aumann, R. and Maschler M. (1995) Repeated Games with Incomplete Information, MIT Press.
  • Hamilton, S. N. Miller, W. L. Ott, A. Saydjari, O. S. (2002) The role of game theory in information warfare. 4th Information survivability workshop (ISW-2001/2002). Vancouver, Canada.
  • Burke, J. (1999) Robustness of Optimal Equilibrium Among Overlapping Generations, Economic Theory, Vol. 14, pp. 311–330.
  • [Gibbons, R. (1992) Game Theory for Applied Economists, Princeton University Press.
  • Libicki, M. (1997) Defending Cyberspace, and Other Metaphors, National Defense University.
  • Andrew, F. Emmanouil, P. Pasquale, M. Chris, H. Fabrizio, S. (2014) Game Theory Meets Information Security Management, IFIP International Information Security Conference SEC 2014: ICT Systems Security and Privacy Protection( pp.15-29).
  • Sanjay, G. and Yuan, H. (2015) Cyber War Games: Strategic Jostling Among Traditional Adversaries. Cyber Warfare, Advances in Information Security 56.

Mathematical Modeling of Cyber Attack and Defense

Yıl 2022, , 10 - 16, 01.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.54047/bibted.997908

Öz

In this paper, a new game formulation is proposed that combines simulation and game-theoretical approaches to the application of security games in cyberspace. The model presented here builds upon a security economic approach that models the adversary and defender motives and goals in the context of empirically derived countermeasure efficacy metrics. The approach is based on a two-player strategic game to determine optimal strategy selection for both adversary and defender. Besides, not only the solution to the game but also a mathematical and graphical representation of “what if” scenarios in the context of the game.
In this study, it has been shown that game-theoretic calculations can serve as a useful tool for identifying effective strategies in cyberwar games. For scenarios that need to penetrate multiple layers in a defense-in-depth security configuration, the calculation of the attacker's and defensive costs and the probability of infiltration requires the presence of cost-benefit matrices and probability matrices. Inspection of the matrices allows players to deduce preferred strategies based on game-theoretical equilibrium solutions. The matrices also help in analyzing the anticipated effects of potential human-based choices of wargame strategies and counter-strategies. Also, a mathematical game-theoretical form has been defined. This paper shows how game-theoretical calculations can indeed provide a useful tool for effective decision-making during cyber wars.

Kaynakça

  • Eren, H. Gençoğlu, M. T. Yenal, S. (2020 )Strateji ve Güvenlik Alanında Temel ve Güncel Yaklaşımlar “Siber Savaş”. Nobel Yayınları.
  • Do, C. T. Tran, N. H. Hong, C. Kamhoua, C. A. Kwiat, K. A. Blasch, E. Ren, S. Pissinou, N. Iyengar, S. S.( 2017) Game theory for cybersecurity and privacy. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 50(2), 30.
  • Sokri, A. (2019) Game Theory and Cyber Defense. Games in Management Science (pp. 335-352). Springer.
  • Guseinov, K.G. Akyar, E. Düzce, S.A. (2010) Oyun Teorisi. Seçkin yayınları.
  • Kiekintveld, C. Lisy, V. Pibil, R. (2015) Game-theoretic foundations for the strategic use of honeypots in network security. In Cyber warfare (pp. 81–101). Springer.
  • Osborne, M. J. (2004) An Introduction to Game Theory. Oxford University Press.
  • Shoham Y.and Leyton-Brown. K. (2009) MultiagentSystems: Algorithmic, Game-Theoretic, and Logical Foundations. Cambridge University Press.
  • Harsanyi, J. (1967) Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players, I-III, Part I, the Basic Model”, Management Science, Vol 14(3), pp. 159–182.
  • Aumann, R. and Maschler M. (1995) Repeated Games with Incomplete Information, MIT Press.
  • Hamilton, S. N. Miller, W. L. Ott, A. Saydjari, O. S. (2002) The role of game theory in information warfare. 4th Information survivability workshop (ISW-2001/2002). Vancouver, Canada.
  • Burke, J. (1999) Robustness of Optimal Equilibrium Among Overlapping Generations, Economic Theory, Vol. 14, pp. 311–330.
  • [Gibbons, R. (1992) Game Theory for Applied Economists, Princeton University Press.
  • Libicki, M. (1997) Defending Cyberspace, and Other Metaphors, National Defense University.
  • Andrew, F. Emmanouil, P. Pasquale, M. Chris, H. Fabrizio, S. (2014) Game Theory Meets Information Security Management, IFIP International Information Security Conference SEC 2014: ICT Systems Security and Privacy Protection( pp.15-29).
  • Sanjay, G. and Yuan, H. (2015) Cyber War Games: Strategic Jostling Among Traditional Adversaries. Cyber Warfare, Advances in Information Security 56.
Toplam 15 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Bilgisayar Yazılımı
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Muharrem Tuncay Gençoğlu 0000-0002-8784-9634

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ağustos 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 20 Eylül 2021
Kabul Tarihi 22 Ocak 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022

Kaynak Göster

APA Gençoğlu, M. T. (2022). Mathematical Modeling of Cyber Attack and Defense. Bilgisayar Bilimleri Ve Teknolojileri Dergisi, 3(1), 10-16. https://doi.org/10.54047/bibted.997908