Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyonun Askeri Harcamalar Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Analizi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 87 - 108, 30.04.2023

Atilla Aydın

https://doi.org/10.38057/bifd.1263880

Öz

İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında tüm dünyada askeri harcamalar artış eğilimine girmiştir. Günümüzün küreselleşen dünyasında askeri harcamalar, ekonomik bir unsur olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Türkiye’de de askeri harcamalar kamu harcamaları içinde önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için 1980 sonrasında enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak ARDL yöntemi ve Sınır Testi kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerde değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre enflasyonun askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi pozitif bulunmuştur. Kişi başına GSYH artışlarının askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi ise negatif olarak tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca hata düzeltme modeli kurulmuş ve kısa dönem sapmaların uzun dönemde ortadan kalktığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Askeri Harcamalar, Enflasyon, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL

The Effect of Economic Growth and Inflation on Military Expenditures in Turkey: ARDL Analysis

Öz

Worldwide military expenditures tended to rise following the Second World War. In today's globalizing world, military expenditures are considered as an economic element. Military expenditures also have an important place in public expenditures in Turkey. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of inflation and economic growth on military expenditures for Turkey after 1980. ARDL method and Boundary Test were used as methods in the study. In the analyzes made, a cointegration relationship was found between the variables. According to the results of the study, the effect of inflation on military expenditures was found to be positive. The effect of per capita GDP increases on military expenditures was found to be negative. In addition, the error correction model was established and it was concluded that short-term deviations disappeared in the long-term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Military Expenditures, Inflation, Economic Growth, ARDL

Kaynakça

• Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2003). Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6), 567– 583. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(03)00057-7
• Altunç, Ö. (2011). Kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye’ye ilişkin ampirik kanıtlar. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 18(2), 145-157.
• Banerjee, A., Lumsdaıne, R., & Stock, J. H. (1992). Recursive and sequential tests of the unit root and trend break hypothesis: theory and international evidence. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 271-287.
• Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.
• Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1086/451015
• Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334-355.
• Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47, 1287-1294.
• Brown, R., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. (1975). Techniques for testing the costancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 37, 149- 224.
• Chang, H. C., Huang, B. N., & Yang, C. W. (2011). Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach. Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2416–2423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.001
• Çil, N. (2018). Finansal Ekonometri. Der Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Davoodi, H., Clements, B., Schiff, J., & Debaere, P. (2001). Military spending, the peace dividend, and fiscal adjustment. IMF Staff Papers, 48(2), 290-316.
• Dedebek, E., & Meriç, M. (2015). Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinde savunma harcamalarını belirleyen ekonomik ve sosyal faktörler: Panel veri analizi. Sayıştay Dergisi, 97, 89-104. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sayistay/issue/61552/919188
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
• Dickey D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
• Doucha, M., & Solomon, B. (2013). Middle powers and the demand for military expenditures. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6), 605-618.
• Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E., & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence spending and economic growth: a causal analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26.
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251‐76.
• Fonfría, A., & Marín, R. (2012). Determinants of the demand for defence expenditure in the NATO countires. Journal of the Higher School of National Defense Studies, 9-30.
• Frederiksen, P. C., & Looney, R. E. (1982). Defense expenditures and economic growth in developing countries. The Journal of Economic Development, 7(1), 113–125.
• Görkem, H., & Işık, S. (2008). Türkiye’de savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki (1968-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2), 405-424.
• Gül, E., & Yavuz, H. (2011). Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: 1963-2008 dönemi. Maliye Dergisi, 160, Ocak–Haziran.
• Günana, T. (2004). The relationship between defense spending and inflation: An emprical analysis for Turkey [Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi]. The Department of Management Bilkent University, Ankara.
• Heo, U. (2010). The relationship between defense spending and economic growth in the United States. Political Research Quarterly, Salt Lake City, 63(4), 760–770.
• Hung-Pin, L., Wang, T., & Yang, C. (2016). Further causality evidence on arms race, inflation and economic growth. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 50(2), 123-137.
• İstikbal, D. (2022). Türkiye’nin savunma harcamaları, Kriter Dergi, 6(66), https://kriterdergi.com/dosya-savunma-ve-guvenlik/turkiyenin-savunma- harcamalari#:~:text=1980'de%20d%C3%BCnyada%20toplam%20askeri,ekonomisine%20oran%C4%B1%20ise%20d%C3%BC%C5%9F%C3%BC%C5%9F%20g%C3%B6stermi%C5%9F
• Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231–254.
• Karagol, E., & Palaz, S. (2004). Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 15(3), 289-298.
• Kinsella, D. (1990). Defence spending and economic performance in the United States: A causal analysis. Defence Economics, 1(4), 295-309.
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (4), 1082-1089.
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root tests with one structural break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, 4(17), 1-15.
• Lim, D. (1983). Another look at growth and defense in less developed countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(2), 377–384.
• Lin, H. (2012). Does defense spending suprise long-run inflation, economic growth and walfare. Economics Bulletin, 32(1), 1020-1031.
• Lucier, C. E. (1979). Changes in the values of arms race parameters. The Journal of Conflict Resolution.
• Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 212-218.
• Mintz, A., & Stevenson, R. T. (1995). Defense expenditures, economic growth, and the “Peace Dividend”: A longitudinal analysis of 103 countries. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), 283–305.
• Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
• Nelson, C., & Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, (10), 139-169.
• Nikolaidou, E. (2008). The demand for military expenditure: Evidence from the EU15 (1961–2005). Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 273-292.
• Özsoy, O. (2008). Defence spending and the macroeconomy: The case of Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(3), 195-208.
• Payne, J. E., & Ross, K. L. (1992). Defense spending and the macroeconomy. Defence Economics, 3(2), 161-168.
• Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
• Perron, P. (1997). Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of Econometrics, 80 (2), 355-385.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, A. Holly, A. Diamond (eds), Centennial Volume of Ragner Frisch, Cambridge UniversityPress.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
• Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335 346.
• Quattara, B. (2004). Foreign aid and fiscal policy in Senegal. Manchester, Mimeo University of Manchester.
• Ramsey, J. B. (1969). Tests for specification errors in classical linear least squares regression analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B-31, 350-371.
• Richardson, L. (1960). Arms and insecurity: A mathematical study of causes and origins of war. Pttsburg: Boxwood Press.
• Smith, R. (1980). The demand for military expenditure. Wiley on Behalf of the Royal Economic Society.
• Starr, H., Hoole, F. W., Hart, J. A., & Freeman, J. R. (1984). The relationship between defense spending and inflation. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28(1), 103-122.
• Tambudzai, Z. (2007). Military burden determinants in Southern Africa, 1996-2005: A cross-section and panel data analysis. Economic Development in Africa Conference (1-25), Oxford: St Catherine’s College.
• Taşseven, Ö. (2011). The Wagner's law: Time series evidence for Turkey, 1960– 2006. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 12 (2).
• Vogelsang, T. J., & Perron, P. (1998). Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time. Internatıonal Economic Review, 39, 1073- 1100.
• World Bank (2022), Military Expenditure, Open Data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.CD?locations=TR
• Yılancı, V., & Özcan, B. (2010). Yapısal kırılmalar altında Türkiye için savunma harcamaları ile GSMH arasındaki ilişkinin analizi. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 21-33.
• Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251- 270.