Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools on Financial Stability: A NARDL Approach for Turkey

Abstract

The primary purpose of central banks is to achieve and maintain price stability. Until the global financial crisis in 2008, it was accepted that financial stability was achieved in an economy where price stability was achieved. However, after the crisis, it was seen that financial stability could not be achieved in economies where price stability was achieved, and alternative policies began to be sought. In this context, many developed and developing countries have started using unconventional monetary policy tools to ensure financial stability along with price stability. As a result of the expansionary policies implemented by the central banks of developed countries, there has been an intense capital inflow to Turkey, which has led to credit expansion and overvaluation of the domestic currency. Therefore, as of 2011, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) started to use non-traditional monetary policy instruments to support financial stability. In this study, a financial stability index has been calculated for the Turkish economy and the effects of interest rate corridor and required reserve implementations on this index were examined with the Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. According to the results of the analysis, it has been understood that the effects of unconventional monetary policy tools in ensuring financial stability are limited and monetary policy implementations alone are insufficient.

Keywords

• Unconventional monetary policy tools
• financial stability
• CBRT
• NARDL

Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikası Araçlarının Finansal İstikrar Üzerindeki Etkinliği: Türkiye İçin Bir NARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Merkez bankalarının birincil amacı fiyat istikrarını sağlamak ve sürdürmektir. 2008 yılında yaşanan küresel finans krizine kadar fiyat istikrarının sağlandığı bir ekonomide finansal istikrarın da sağlandığı kabul ediliyordu. Fakat kriz sonrasında fiyat istikrarının sağlandığı ekonomilerde finansal istikrarın sağlanamadığı görülmüş ve alternatif politika arayışları başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda, birçok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke, fiyat istikrarı ile birlikte finansal istikrarı sağlamak için geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçlarını kullanmaya başlamıştır. Gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının uyguladığı genişletici politikalar sonucunda Türkiye’ye yoğun bir sermaye girişi olmuş ve bu durum kredi genişlemesine ve yerli paranın aşırı değerlenmesine neden olmuştur. Bu nedenle 2011 yılı itibarıyla Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB), finansal istikrarı desteklemek amacıyla geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçlarını kullanmaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için bir finansal istikrar endeksi hesaplanmış ve TCMB tarafından kullanılan faiz koridoru ve zorunlu karşılık uygulamalarının bu endeks üzerindeki etkileri, Doğrusal Olmayan Oto Regresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (NARDL) modeli ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçlarının finansal istikrarın sağlanmasındaki etkilerinin sınırlı olduğu ve para politikası uygulamalarının tek başına yetersiz olduğu anlaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gelenksel olmayan para politikası araçları
• finansal istikrar
• TCMB
• NARDL

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