Exploring the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the existence of a long-run relationship between economic growth and oil prices in Türkiye, using annual data for the period 1987-2019. First, the stationarity of the variables is evaluated using the Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS) based ADF unit root test. Second, the RALS-based cointegration test is used to investigate the long-run relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between economic growth and oil prices in Türkiye. As a result, it is concluded that the series does not return to equilibrium in the long run and oil price shocks during the financial turmoil may affect economic growth.

Keywords

• Economic growth
• oil prices
• unit root
• cointegration
• RALS
• asymmetric causality

Türkiye'de Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1987-2019 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye'de iktisadi büyüme ile petrol fiyatları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı araştırılmıştır. İlk olarak, değişkenlerin durağanlığı artıklarla genişletilmiş en küçük kareler (RALS) tabanlı ADF birim kök testi ile değerlendirilmiştir. İkinci olarak, fark durağan olan değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi araştırmak için RALS tabanlı eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ile petrol fiyatları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, serinin uzun vadede dengeye dönmediği ve finansal çalkantı sırasında yaşanan petrol fiyat şoklarının ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyebileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik büyüme
• petrol fiyatları
• birim kök
• eşbütünleşme
• RALS
• asimetrik nedensellik

Kaynakça

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