Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalı ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 2006: Q1-2021: Q2 Dönemi Analizi

Öz

Ekonomi yönetimlerinin almış olduğu kararların toplam sonucu etkilemesi teorik anlamda parasal aktarım mekanizmaları ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada da parasal aktarım mekanizmasının kredi kanalı çerçevesinde banka kredi kanalının işlerliği analiz edilmektedir. Yapılan araştırmada hem Covid-19 salgınının anlık etkilerinin tespit edilebilmesi hem de sağlıklı verilerle analiz yapılabilmesi amacıyla 2006 yılı birinci çeyrek ve 2021 yılı ikinci çeyrek dönemleri tercih edilmektedir. SVAR (Yapısal Vektör Otoregresif Model) modeli kapsamında detaylı analizler yapılmaktadır. Yapılan analizlerde banka kredi kanalının etkinliği ve nedenleri kapsamlı bir şekilde yorumlanarak Model-I ve Model-II olmak üzere iki model oluşturulmaktadır. Model-I’de kredi, para arzı ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki tespit edilerek banka kredi kanalının işlerliği ortaya konulmaya çalışılırken Model-II’de bireysel ve ticari kredileri tetikleyen faktörün belirlenmesi için enflasyonla olan ilişkisi test edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçları Türkiye’de finansal sistemin kendi içinde hızlı döndüğünü ancak reel büyümenin ve enflasyonun bu döngüye karşı dirençli olduğunu göstermektedir. Banka kredi kanalının da ağır ve gecikmeli olarak çalıştığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Politikası
• Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması
• Banka Kredi Kanalı
• Enflasyon
• VAR Modeli.

The Relationship Between Bank Credit Channel and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Analysis for the Period 2006: Q1-2021: Q2

Öz

The impact of decisions taken by economic authorities on the overall outcome is theoretically explained by monetary transmission mechanisms. This study analyzes the functionality of the bank credit channel in the economy of Türkiye within the framework of monetary transmission mechanisms. The study uses the first quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2021 to both identify the immediate effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and to conduct analyses with robust data. Detailed econometric analyses are conducted within the framework of the SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregressive Model) model. In these analyzes, the effectiveness and reasons of the bank credit channel are comprehensively interpreted, and two models, Model I and Model II, are created. Model I attempts to demonstrate the functionality of the bank credit channel by identifying the relationship between credit, money supply, and growth, while Model II tests its relationship with inflation to determine the factor that triggers individual and commercial credits. The analysis results Show that the financial system in Türkiye rotates rapidly within itself, but reel growth and inflation are resilient to this cycle. It also reveals that the bank credit channel operates slowly and with a delay.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Monetary Policy
• Monetary Transmission Mechanism Channels
• Bank Lending Channel
• VAR Model

Kaynakça

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