A Microeconomic Analysis of the COVID-19 Distribution in Turkey

Öz

Daha büyük olan şehirler Türkiye'de COVID-19 pandemisinin etkisini artırmamaktadır. Türkiye'deki şehirler üzerine yapılan çalışmaya göre Gibrat Yasası geçerlidir ve salgın bireyler arasında şehrin büyüklüğüyle orantılı olarak yayılmaktadır. Pandeminin yayılma hızı şehir büyüklüğüyle birlikte artmamaktadır. COVID-19 vakaları ülkede log-normal dağılım göstermektedir. Şehirlerdeki 0-19 yaş aralığındakilerin nüfusa oranı raporlanan vaka sayıları üzerine negatif etkiye sahipken, 40-59 yaş grubu en fazla pozitif etkiye sahiptir. COVID-19 kaynaklı ölümlerin dağılımı da şehir büyüklüğüyle orantılı olup üstel ve normal dağılımlarla temsil edilebilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• Gibrat Yasası
• Orantılı Etki Yasası
• Şehir Büyüklük Dağılımı

A Microeconomic Analysis of the COVID-19 Distribution in Turkey

Öz

Larger cities do not amplify the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. Reports from Turkish cities provide evidence that the Gibrat’s Law holds and the infection grows among population in proportion to the city sizes. Growth of the pandemic is not faster in larger cities. COVID-19 cases are lognormally distributed throughout the country. While the 0-19 age group of the society is associated with a negative impact on the reported cases, 40-59 group has the most additive effect. Distribution of the reported deaths from COVID-19 does not grow in proportion to the city size, and may well be approximated by both exponential and normal distributions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19
• Gibrat’s Law
• Law of the Proportionate Effect
• City Size Distribution

Kaynakça

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