Tourism’s Effect on the Housing Prices in Turkey: The ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Abstract

The goal of this study is to determine the effect of tourism on housing prices in Turkey both nationally and regionally. It is important for countries to increase their recognition in the international arena through efficient marketing and promotional activities in order to achieve the economic benefits that are expected from tourism. This recognition may cause an increase in the number of arriving foreign tourists. The increase in the number of incoming foreign tourists may affect the housing prices of the relevant countries naturally. In this context, the effect of tourism on housing prices in the long term has been researched by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach through monthly data belonging to the 2010:01-2018:12 period. The findings acquired indicated that the number of foreign tourists coming from Europe and the Middle East created a positive effect on the housing prices of the Mediterranean region in the long term while the number of foreign tourists coming from Asia and Commonwealth Independent States created a negative effect on the housing prices in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, it has been determined that the number of foreign tourists coming from Europe and the Commonwealth Independent States had a negative effect on the housing prices in the Black Sea region in the long run, while the number of foreign tourists coming from Asia created a positive effect on the housing prices in the Black Sea region. The number of foreign tourists coming from Asia also created a positive effect on the housing prices in Marmara2 region in the long run.

Keywords

• Tourism
• housing price
• ARDL
• Turkey
• regional

Tourism’s Effect on the Housing Prices in Turkey: The ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye geneli ve bölgesel olarak turizmin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini belirlemektir. Ülkelerin turizmden beklenen ekonomik faydaları elde edebilmesi açısından etkin pazarlama ve tanıtım faaliyetleri ile uluslararası arenada tanınırlığını artırmak önemlidir. Bu tanınırlık ülkelerden gelen yabancı turist sayısında artışa neden olabilir. Ülkelere gelen yabancı turist sayısındaki artışlar ise doğal olarak söz konusu ülkelerin konut fiyatlarını etkileyebilir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada uzun dönemde turizmin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi 2010:01-2018:12 dönemine ait aylık verilerle Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, uzun dönemde Avrupa ve Ortadoğu’dan gelen yabancı turist sayısının Akdeniz bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde pozitif etki yaratırken, Asya ve Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu ülkelerinden gelen yabancı turist sayısının negatif etki yarattığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, uzun dönemde Avrupa ve Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu ülkelerinden gelen yabancı turist sayısı Karadeniz bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde negatif etkiye sahipken, Asya’dan gelen yabancı turist sayısının Karadeniz bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde pozitif etki yarattığı belirlenmiştir. Asya’dan gelen yabancı turist sayısı da Marmara2 bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde uzun dönemde pozitif etki meydana getirmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• konut fiyatları
• ARDL
• Türkiye
• bölgesel

Kaynakça

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