Tourism’s Effect on the Housing Prices in Turkey: The ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Öz

The goal of this study is to determine the effect of tourism on housing prices in Turkey both nationally and regionally. It is important for countries to increase their recognition in the international arena through efficient marketing and promotional activities in order to achieve the economic benefits that are expected from tourism. This recognition may cause an increase in the number of arriving foreign tourists. The increase in the number of incoming foreign tourists may affect the housing prices of the relevant countries naturally. In this context, the effect of tourism on housing prices in the long term has been researched by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach through monthly data belonging to the 2010:01-2018:12 period. The findings acquired indicated that the number of foreign tourists coming from Europe and the Middle East created a positive effect on the housing prices of the Mediterranean region in the long term while the number of foreign tourists coming from Asia and Commonwealth Independent States created a negative effect on the housing prices in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, it has been determined that the number of foreign tourists coming from Europe and the Commonwealth Independent States had a negative effect on the housing prices in the Black Sea region in the long run, while the number of foreign tourists coming from Asia created a positive effect on the housing prices in the Black Sea region. The number of foreign tourists coming from Asia also created a positive effect on the housing prices in Marmara2 region in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism
• housing price
• ARDL
• Turkey
• regional

Tourism’s Effect on the Housing Prices in Turkey: The ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye geneli ve bölgesel olarak turizmin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini belirlemektir. Ülkelerin turizmden beklenen ekonomik faydaları elde edebilmesi açısından etkin pazarlama ve tanıtım faaliyetleri ile uluslararası arenada tanınırlığını artırmak önemlidir. Bu tanınırlık ülkelerden gelen yabancı turist sayısında artışa neden olabilir. Ülkelere gelen yabancı turist sayısındaki artışlar ise doğal olarak söz konusu ülkelerin konut fiyatlarını etkileyebilir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada uzun dönemde turizmin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi 2010:01-2018:12 dönemine ait aylık verilerle Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, uzun dönemde Avrupa ve Ortadoğu’dan gelen yabancı turist sayısının Akdeniz bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde pozitif etki yaratırken, Asya ve Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu ülkelerinden gelen yabancı turist sayısının negatif etki yarattığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, uzun dönemde Avrupa ve Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu ülkelerinden gelen yabancı turist sayısı Karadeniz bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde negatif etkiye sahipken, Asya’dan gelen yabancı turist sayısının Karadeniz bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde pozitif etki yarattığı belirlenmiştir. Asya’dan gelen yabancı turist sayısı da Marmara2 bölgesi konut fiyatları üzerinde uzun dönemde pozitif etki meydana getirmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• konut fiyatları
• ARDL
• Türkiye
• bölgesel

Kaynakça

1. Abelson, P., Joyeux, R., Milunovich, G. & Chung, D. (2005). Explaining house prices in Australia: 1970-2003. The Economic Record, 81(255), 96-103.
2. Badurlar, İ.Ö. (2008). Investigation of relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 223-238.
3. Biagi, B. & Faggian, A. (2004, August). The effect of tourism on the house market: The case of Sardinia. Paper presentation at 44th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: Regions and Fiscal Federalism, Porto, Portugal.
4. Biagi, B., Brandano, M. G. & Caudill, S. B. (2016). Tourism and house prices in Italy: A latent class approach. Tourism Economics, 22(5), 964-978.
5. Biagi, B., Brandano, MG. & Lambiri, D. (2015). Does tourism affect house prices? Evidence from Italy. Growth and Change, 46(3), 501-528.
6. Bozdağlıoğlu, E.Y.U. (2007). Türkiye’nin ithalat ve ihracatının eşbütünleşme yöntemi ile analizi (1990-2007). Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(3), 213-224.
7. Bozkurt, H. (2010). Eğitim, sağlık ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler: Türkiye için bir analiz. The Journal of Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Management, 5, 7-27.
8. Brida, J. G. & Pulina, M. (2010). A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis. (Working paper 2010–2017), CRENoS, Cagliari & Sassari University.

9. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations overtime. Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, 37(13), 149-163.
10. Capello, R. (2002). Urban rent and urban dynamics: The determinants of urban development in Italy, The Annals of Regional Science, 36(4), 593-611.
11. Carliner, G. (1973). Income elasticity of housing demand. Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(4), 528-532.
12. Chen, M., & Patel, K. (1998). House price dynamics and granger causality: An analysis of Taipei new dwelling market. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society, 1(1), 101-126.
13. Demirel, S.K. & Koçak, S. (2019). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde konut fiyatları ile temel makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ilişkiler. Paper presentation at the II. International Social Sciences Congress, Gümüşhane, Turkey.
14. Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
15. Duesenberry, J., & Kistin, H. (1953). The Role of Demand in the Economic Structure. New York: Oxford University Press.
16. Egert, B. & Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinants of house prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Comparative Economic Studies, 49, 368-388.
17. Englund, P., & Ioannides, Y.M. (1997). House price dynamics: An international empirical perspective. Journal of Housing Economics, 6, 119-13.
18. Erdem, H.F. & Yamak, N. (2018). The long-run reationship between hedonic houce prices and consumer prices: ARDL bounds testing approach. in Econometrics, Methods & Applications, M. K. Terzioğlu (Ed.), S. Dal (Co-Ed.), 19-30, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
19. Genç, M.C. & Tandoğan, D. (2016). Ekonomik büyüme ve turizm arasındaki ilişki panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Paper presentation at the International Multidisciplinary Conference, Antalya, Turkey.
20. Holly, S. & Jones, N. (1997). House prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, demography and asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 549-565.
21. İslamoğlu, B. & Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2019). Inflation and housing prices: a panel data analysis for Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Research Journal of Politics, Economics and Management, 7(1), 93-99
22. Jud, G. D. & Winkler, D.T. (2002). The dynamics of metropolitan housing prices. The Journal of Real Estate Research, 23(1/2), 29-46.
23. Kargı, B. (2013). Housing market and economic growth relation: time series analysis over Turkey (2000-2012). International Journal of Human Sciences, 10(1), 897-924.
24. Kolcu, F. & Yamak, N. (2018). Short and long-run effects of income and interest rate on house prices. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 2018, 141-152.
25. Kördiş, G., Işık S. & Mert, M. (2014). The estimation of determinants of house prices in Antalya: Hedonic pricing model. Akdeniz İİBF Journal, 14(28), 103-132.
26. Lee, T.H. (1963). Demand for housing: A cross-section analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 45(2), 190-196.
27. Mankiw, N.G., & Weil, D. N. (1989). The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(2), 235-258.
28. Mert, M. and Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık
29. Paci, R. & Marrocu, E. (2014). Tourism and regional growth in Europe. Papers in Regional Science, (93), 25-50.
30. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
31. Phillips, P. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
32. Sağlam, C. & Abdioğlu, Z. (2020). The relationship between hedonic house prices and consumer prices in Turkey: Panel data analysis. Journal of Yasar University, 15(57), 117-128.
33. UNWTO (2019). International Tourism Highlights. https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152 [Erişim tarihi: 23.04.2020].
34. Winger, A.R. (1968). Housing and income. Western Economic Journal, 6(3), 226-232.
35. Yamak, N., Tanrıöver, B. & Güneysu, F. (2012). Tourism-economic growth relations: A investigating on basis of sector. Atatürk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 26(2), 205-220.
36. Yıldırım, J., & Öcal, N. (2004). Tourism and economic growth in Turkey. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15(52-53), 131-141.
37. Yu, H. (2010). China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?, Frontiers of Economics in China, 5(1), 25-51.
38. Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
39. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr [Erişim tarihi: 17 Mayıs 2019]
40. https://www.tuik.gov.tr [Erişim tarihi: 24 Nisan 2019]