Türkiye’de Beşeri Sermaye ve Küreselleşmenin Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Fourier-ADL Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 125 - 152, 20.12.2021

Uğur Korkut Pata Mehmet Ela

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.860403

Cited By: 2

Öz

Kayıt dışı ekonomi, hükümetlerin vergi gelirlerini azaltan önemli bir problemdir. Bu nedenle, kayıt dışı ekonominin belirleyicilerini tespit etmek amacıyla birçok araştırmacı ampirik çalışmalar yürütmüştür. Küreselleşme ve beşerî sermayenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini inceleyen teorik çalışmalar olmasına karşın ampirik çalışmaların sayısı oldukça kısıtlıdır. Önceki çalışmalar ile ulaşılan sonuçlar iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin negatif veya pozitif olabileceğini ve bu ilişkinin ülkeye özgü koşullara göre değişebileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1986-2015 döneminde beşerî sermaye ve küreselleşme indekslerinin kayıt dışı ekonomiye uzun dönemli etkilerini inceleyerek bu boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bunu yaparken, çalışma Fourier ADL yaklaşımı, tam değiştirilmiş en küçük kareler (FMOLS) ve dinamik en küçük kareler (DOLS) tahmincilerini kullanmaktadır. Küreselleşme ve beşerî sermayenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini eşanlı olarak sınayan bir çalışma bulunmaması nedeniyle, bu çalışma, literatüre bir katkıdır. Ampirik sonuçlar, küreselleşmenin kayıt dışı ekonomiyi azaltmada önemli bir rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Küreselleşmedeki %1’lik bir artış, Türkiye’de kayıt dışı ekonomiyi yaklaşık %2,5 azaltmaktadır. Aksine, beşerî sermayenin kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Sonuç itibarıyla, Türkiye’de küreselleşme, kayıt dışı ekonomi ile mücadelede önemli bir araç olarak kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fourier fonksiyonu, Kayıt dışı ekonomi, Küreselleşme, Beşeri sermaye, Eşbütünleşme

The Effects of Human Capital and Globalization on Shadow Economy in Turkey: Fourier-ADL Approach

Öz

The shadow economy is an important problem that reduces the tax revenues of governments. For this reason, many researchers have conducted empirical studies to determine the determinants of the shadow economy. Although theoretical studies have investigated the effects of globalization on the shadow economy, the number of empirical studies is limited. The results obtained in the previous studies show that the relationship between the two variables can be negative or positive and this relationship can change depending on country-specific conditions. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by investigating the long-run effects of human capital and globalization indexes on the shadow economy in Turkey covering the period of 1986-2015. In doing so, the study uses the Fourier ADL approach, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic least squares (DOLS) estimators. Since there is no study simultaneously testing the effects of globalization and human capital on the shadow economy, this study is a contribution to the literature. The empirical results show that globalization plays an important role in reducing the shadow economy. A 1% increase in globalization leads to a 2.5% reduction in the shadow economy in Turkey. In contrast, human capital does not affect the shadow economy. Consequently, globalization can be used as an important tool to combat the shadow economy in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fourier function, shadow economy, globalization, human capital, cointegration

Kaynakça

• Akalın, G. & Kesikoğlu, F. (2007). Türkiye’de kayıtdışı ekonomi ve büyüme ilişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 3(5), 71-87.
• Akça, E.E. & Bal, H. (2018). Ekonometrik yaklaşım yoluyla Türkiye’de kayıt dışı ekonominin tahmini. Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(1), 725-738.
• Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739.
• Asongu, S.A. & Nwachukwu, J.C. (2016). The mobile phone in the diffusion of knowledge for institutional quality in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 86, 133-147.
• Avi-Yonah, R. S. (2001). Globalization and tax competition: implications for developing countries. CEPAL Review, 74, 59-66.
• Ayrangöl, Z. (2019). Gig ekonomisinde vergileme. Vergi Sorunları, 368, 135-142.
• Bacchetta, M., Ernst, E., & Bustamante, J.P. (2009). Globalization and informal jobs in developing countries. A Joint Study of the International Labour Office and the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization, WTO Publications, Geneva.
• Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. & Mestre, R. (1998). Error‐correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single‐equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.
• Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V. & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
• Bayar, F. (2008). Küreselleşme kavramı ve küreselleşme sürecinde Türkiye. Uluslararası Ekonomik Sorunlar Dergisi, 32, 25-34.
• Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
• Berdiev, A.N. & Saunoris, J.W. (2018). Does globalisation affect the shadow economy?. The World Economy, 41(1), 222-241.
• Berrittella, M. (2015) The effect of public education expenditure on shadow economy: A cross-country analysis. International Economic Journal, 29(4), 527-546.
• Boswijk, H.P. (1994). Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 63(1), 37-60.
• Buehn, A., & Farzanegan, M. R. (2013). Impact of education on the shadow economy: Institutions matter. Economics Bulletin, 33(3), 2052-2063.
• Carr, M. & Chen, M.A. (2002). Globalization and the informal economy: How global trade and investment impact on the working poor (pp. 92-2). Geneva: International Labour Office.
• Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. & Sansó, A. (2007). The KPSS test with two structural breaks. Spanish Economic Review, 9(2), 105-127.
• Dell'Anno, R. & Halicioglu, F. (2010). An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(6), 627-646.
• Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: ,Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072.
• Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
• Dreher, A., Gaston, N. & Martens, P. (2008). Measuring Globalisation. Gauging its Consequences, Springer, New York.
• Ela, M. (2013). An assessment on the relationship between informal economy and educational level in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 910-922.
• Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251-276.
• Erkuş, H. & Karagöz, K. (2009). Türkiye’de kayıt dışı ekonomi ve vergi kaybının tahmini. Maliye Dergisi, 156, 126-140.
• Farzanegan, M.R., & Hassan, M. (2017). The impact of economic globalization on the shadow economy in Egypt. Magks Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, no. 18-2017.
• Feenstra, R.C., Inklaar, R. & Timmer, M.P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn world table, American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-82.
• Fugazza, M. & Fiess, N. (2010). Trade liberalization and informality: new stylized facts, UNCTAD policy issues in international trade and commodities study series, no. 43.
• Gallant, A. R. (1981). On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form: the Fourier flexible form. Journal of Econometrics, 15(2), 211-245.
• Gaspareniene, L., & Remeikiene, R. (2016). The methodologies of shadow economy estimation in the world and in Lithuania: whether the criterions fixing digital shadow are included?. Procedia Economics and Finance, 39, 753-760.
• Gerxhani, K., & van de Werfhorst, H. G. (2013). The effect of education on informal sector participation in a post-communist communist country. European Sociological Review, 29(3), 464-476.
• Goldberg, P.K. & Pavcnik. N. (2003). The response of the informal sector to trade liberalization, Journal of Development Economics, 72(2), 43-496
• Gregory, A.W., & Hansen, B.E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
• Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N. & Sturm, J. E. (2019). The KOF globalisation index–revisited, The Review of International Organizations, 14, 1-32.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
• ILO (2018). Women and men in the informal economy: A statistical picture. Geneva: ILO Publications.
• Irani, F. N. H. & Noruzi, M. R. (2011). Globalization and challenges; what are the globalization's contemporary issues?. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 1(6), 216-218.
• Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
• Kearney (2006). The globalization index. https://www.ucg.ac.me/skladiste/blog_2213/objava_31248/fajlovi/global06index.pdf [Erişim tarihi: 15 Aralık 2020].
• Keneck-Massil, J., & Noah, A. (2019). Shadow economy and educational systems in Africa. Economics Bulletin, 39(2), 1467-1478.
• Kıvılcım, F. (2013). Küreselleşme kavramı ve küreselleşme sürecinin gelişmekte olan ülke Türkiye açısından değerlendirilmesi. Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 219-230.
• Kurnaz Baltaci, I., & Özaydin, M. M. (2020). Eğitimin işgücü piyasasındaki rolü çerçevesinde uyumsuz eşleşme olgusu: Türkiye işgücü piyasasına ilişkin talep yönlü bir değerlendirme. Third Sector Social Economic Review, 55(1), 313-336.
• Kurozumi, E. (2002). Testing for stationarity with a break. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 63-99.
• Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
• McKeever, M. (2006). Fall back or spring forward?: Labor market transitions and the informal economy in South Africa. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 24(1), 73-87.
• Paz, L. (2012). The impacts of trade liberalization on informal labor markets: an evaluation of the Brazilian case. MRPA paper, no. 38858.
• Petrova, K. (2019). Globalization and the Informal Economy in Developing Countries. In Globalization and Development. Nezameddin Faghih (Ed). Springer, Cham, 49-73.
• Pham, T.H.H. (2017). Impacts of globalization on the informal sector: empirical evidence from developing countries. Economic Modelling, 62, 207-218.
• Phillips, P.C., & Hansen, B.E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1): 99-125.
• Saraswati & Agustina, N. (2020). The impact of human capital on shadow economy in Indonesia. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 66, 11-24.
• Satrovic, E. (2019). Moderating effect of economic freedom on the relationship between human capital and shadow economy. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 295-306.
• Seddon, T. (2008). Drugs, the informal economy and globalization, International Journal of Social Economics, 35(10), 717-728.
• Spange, M., & Young, C. (2007). The macroeconomic impact of globalisation: theory and evidence. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, no. 2007/q1.
• Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 61(4), 783-820.
• Temkin, B. & Veizaga, J. (2010). The impact of economic globalization on labor informality. New Global Studies, 4(1), 1–31.
• Westerlund, J., & Edgerton, D.L. (2007). New improved tests for cointegration with structural breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 28(2), 188-224.
• Yılancı, V., Aslan, M. & Özgür, Ö. (2018). Testing the validity of PPP theory for African countries. Applied Economics Letters, 25(18), 1273-1277.
• Zarra-Nezhad, M., Hasanvand, S. & Akbarzadeh, M. H. (2014). The shadow economy and globalization: a comparison between difference GMM and system GMM approaches, International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 6(2), 41-57.