Petrol Fiyat Şoklarından Makroekonomik Göstergelere Nedensellik Analizi: En Çok Petrol İthal Eden Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 205 - 218, 30.12.2024

Merve Kocaman

https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1538762

Öz

Bu çalışma, beş gelişmiş ve beş gelişmekte olan en büyük petrol ithalatçısı ülke için, petrol fiyat şoklarının temel makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki nedensellik etkilerini sunmaktadır. Petrol fiyat şokları ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini test etmek için Hatemi-J (2011) panel asimetrik nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, negatif şokların gelişmekte olan ülkelerin GSYİH'sinde etkili (pozitif etki), pozitif şokların ise gelişmiş ülkelerin GSYİH'sinde etkili (negatif etki) olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye, Polonya, Almanya ve İtalya'nın enflasyon oranında önemli bir rolü olmasına rağmen, geçiş etkisinin tam olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. İşsizlik açısından, pozitif petrol fiyat şokları Çin ve Türkiye'de işsizliği artırırken, gelişmiş ülkeler içinde ise yalnızca Almanya ve Singapur olumsuz etkilenmektedir. Sonuç olarak, gelişmiş ülkeler içerisinde en olumsuz etkilenen ülkeler Almanya ve Singapur iken, gelişmekte olan ülkeler içinde en olumsuz etkilenen ülke Türkiye olarak tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla bu ülkelerin petrol fiyat şoklarının olumsuz etkilerini bertaraf etmek için alternatif enerji kaynaklarına daha fazla yönelmeleri gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

petrol fiyat şokları, enflasyon, işsizlik, asimetrik nedensellik

Causality from Oil Price Shocks to Macroeconomic Indicators: A Comparison for Top Oil Importer Countries

Öz

This study presents the causality effects of oil price shocks on the main macroeconomic indicators for five developed and five developing top oil importer countries. To test the causality relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variables, Hatemi-J (2011) panel asymmetric causality test is performed. Results show that while negative shocks positively affect developing countries’ GDP, positive shocks negatively affect developed countries' GDP. Although oil prices have a significant role in Turkiye’s, Poland’s, Germany’s, and Italy’s inflation rate, the pass-through effect is incomplete. Regarding unemployment, while positive oil price shocks increase unemployment in China and Turkiye, among the developed countries, only Germany and Singapore experience a rise in unemployment. As a result, the most negatively affected developed countries are detected as Germany and Singapore. On the other hand, among the developing countries, the most negatively affected country is identified as Turkiye. Therefore, these countries should shift to alternative energy resources to eliminate the negative effects of oil price shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

oil price shocks, inflation, unemployment, asymmetric causality

Kaynakça

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