From Spring to Summer? Revolutionary Change in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya

Yıl 2013, Sayı: 2, 75 - 102, 01.12.2013

Imad El-anis Ashraf Hamed

Öz

This article offers an analysis of the early stages of the revolutions
that have been taking place in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Here we consider
the early stages of the revolutions from winter 2010-11 up until the summer
of 2012 and offers a comparative study of the experiences of the early stage
of the revolutions in each case study. In particular this study considers the
roles of six variables on the process of regime change and transition as follows:
1) duration of the uprising up to regime change; 2) the initial outcome
of the revolution/uprising; 3) the number of deaths and casualties; 4) the postregime
change status of key members of the former governing elite; 5) the
existence and nature of post-regime change elections; and 6) levels of international
involvement. This study finds that in all three case studies, considering
these variables offers insight into the nature and effect of the early stages
of the revolutions. Furthermore, in each case there are key similarities in
some of these variables but significant differences in others which suggest
that the processes of transition are not directly comparable with each other.
This article also offers some thoughts on how the early stages of these revolutions
could affect the direction and pace of change in each state.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Democratizations, Regime Change, Arab Spring, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya