Interdependency of Business Cycle between Turkey and the Selected Central Asian Countries*

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 81, 79 - 104, 01.05.2017

Haesun Park Chong Jin Oh

Öz

The dynamic interdependency among seven countries or economies Turkey, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, China, Iran, and EU is examined through the use of a vector error correction model, directed acyclic graphs DAGs and monthly data of the industrial production index. Overall, the results show that the industrial production of Russia affects the EU and the industrial production of the EU affects Turkey in a contemporaneous time horizon, which implies that two Central Asian countries, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, have no linkage with either Russia or Turkey in terms of their industrial production for a contemporaneous time horizon. However, all industrial productions of the seven economies are tied together in the long run in one cointegration relationship.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Interdependency, Turkey, Central Asia, International business cycle, directed acyclic graphs

Türkiye ve Orta Asya Ülkelerinin Endüstriyel İş Döngüsündeki Karşılıklı Bağımlılığı

Öz

Yedi ülke ya da ekonomi Türkiye, Kazakistan, Azerbaycan, Rusya, Çin, İran ve AB arasındaki dinamik Karşılıklı bağımlılık vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve endüstriyel üretim indeksi aylık verileri kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Genel olarak, sonuçlar eş zaman olarak dilimi içinde Rusya’nın endüstriyel üretiminin AB’yi, AB’nin endüstriyel üretiminin ise Türkiye’yi etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu durum örneğin Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan gibi iki Orta Asya ülkesinin endüstriyel üretim açısından Rusya ya da Türkiye’yle bağlantısı olmadığı anlamına gelmektedir. Buna rağmen, yedi ekonominin tüm endüstriyel üretimi uzun vadede tek bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisiyle birbirine bağlıdır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Karşılıklı bağımlılık , Türkiye, Orta Asya Ülkeleri, konjonktür dalgaları, asiklik yönlü

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