Nijerya'da Kredi Politikalarının Mahsul Üretimi Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 1 - 15, 08.07.2024

Sunday Akpan , İni-mfon Patrick , Ubokudom E. Okon , Veronica S. Nkanta

https://doi.org/10.59128/bojans.1402648

Öz

Bu araştırmada Nijerya'da bitkisel üretim endeksi ile kredi politikası değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşmenin varlığı otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi kullanılarak belirlendi. Tahmin edilen kısa ve uzun vadeli modeller bir araya geldi, en kaliteli, verimli ve kapsamlıydı. Ampirik kredi sonuçları, tarım sektörünün verilen ticari banka toplam kredisinin ve alt mahsul ticaretinin izniyle yönetim garanti planı fon kredisinin hem uzun hem de kısa süreli bitkisel üretim rejimi üzerinde önemli bir pozitif olayların gösterildiğini göstermektedir. Kısa kredi harcaması, bitkisel üretim rejimi hem borç verme faiz oranı hem de özel sektöre verilen toplam yurt içi ile kayıt değeri bir negatif gelişme göstermektedir. Tarım sektörünün verdiği toplam kredinin kurulumu ve kredi yönetimi garanti planı fonu kredisinin ürün alt sektörünün genişletilmesi pazarları ile doğrulanmaktadır. Mahsul alt sektöre yerli özel yatırımı çekebilmek için alt sektöre özgü desteklerin yapılmasını büyük önemsemek. Ayrıca ülkelerdeki çiftçilerin tarım kredisine erişiminin arttırılması amacıyla kredi faiz oranlarının belirli aralıklarla azaltılması önemle tavsiye edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mahsul, Kredi, Çıktı, Tarım Politikası, Nijerya

The Impact of Credit Policies on Crop Output in Nigeria

Öz

Abstract: The relationship between crop production index and credit policy variables in Nigeria was investigated in this research. The presence of co-integration among series was established using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test. The short and long run models estimated were stable, best quality, efficient, and unbiased. The empirical results showed that the commercial bank total credit to the agricultural sector and agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund loan to the crop sub-sector have a significant positive impact on crop production index in both the long and short run. In the short run, the crop production index shows a notable negative correlation with both the lending interest rate and the total domestic credit to the private sector. The need to increase the total credit to the agricultural sector and scale up the agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund loan to the crop sub-sector is justified by the findings. To attract domestic private investment in the crop sub-sector, it is crucial to offer strategic incentives peculiar to the subsector. Additionally, it is highly recommended to periodically decrease the lending interest rate in order to enhance farmers' access to farm credit in the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

crop, credit, output, agricultural policies, Nigeria

Kaynakça

• Abdulrafiu, Toheeb and Christopher Dabo, Abigail, Impact of Agricultural Finance on Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1983 - 2018) (August 26, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4201333 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4201333
• Abu, O. (2017). Impact of agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (ACGSF) on livestock production in Nigeria: evidence from historical data. Journal of Agriculture and Environment, 13(2), 1-11.
• Adebayo, O. O., and Adeola, R.G. (2008) Sources and Uses of Agricultural Credit by Small-Scale Farmers in Surulere Local Government Area of Oyo State. Anthropologist, 10, 313-314.
• Adedokun, B. (2021). Nigeria’s Food Insecurity and Its Implications on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 Amidst the COVID-19 Era. Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), 6(5), 18-26.
• Adewale, A. T., Lawal, O. A., Aberu, F., and Toriola, A. K. (2022). Effect of credit to farmers and agricultural productivity in Nigeria. East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 1(3), 377-388.
• Agunuwa, E.V., Inaya, L., Proso, T. (2015), Impact of commercial banks’ credit on agricultural productivity in Nigeria (time series analysis 1980-2013). International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 5(11), 337-350.
• Akpan, S. B. (2022). Trends in major ruminant meats production and the roles of the macroeconomic environment in Nigeria. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 22(4), 49-62.
• Akpan, S. B., Nkanta, V. S., and Udoh, E. J. (2023). Labour Preferences among Small-Scale Arable Crop Farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Southern Nigeria. Muş Alparslan University Journal of Agriculture and Nature, 3(2), 77-90. doi.org/10.59359/maujan.1264820
• Akpan, S. B., Edet J. U., and Inimfon V. P. (2016). Sustaining Small Scale Farming: Evidence of Poverty and income Disparity among Rural Farming Households in South-South Region of Nigeria. Path of Science: International Electronic Scientific Journal, 2(9), 4.9 – 4.23.
• Akpan, S. B., Inimfon V. P., Samuel J. U., Edem A. O., and Uwemedimo E. O. (2013). Determinants of Credit Access and Demand among Poultry Farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. American Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 3(2), 293-307.
• Akpan, S. B., Obot D. Akpan and Ubon, A. Essien, (2012). Government Agricultural Credit Policy and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: a case study of Agricultural Credit Scheme Fund (ACGSF) in Nigeria. Public Policy and Administration Research, 2(2), 61-75.
• Akpan, S. B., Offor, O. S., and Archibong, A. E. (2020). Access and demand for credit among small scale agro-based processors in Uyo agricultural zone, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agriculture, 51(1), 132-141.
• Akpan, S. B., Uwemedimo E. O., and Ima-abasi S. A. (2019). Poverty coping strategies of oil palm farmers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agriculture, Food and Environment, 15(1), 20-30.
• Aladejebi, O. J., Omolehin, R. A., Ajiniran, M. E., and Ajakpovi, A. P. (2018). Determinants of Credit Acquisition and Utilization among Household farmers in the Drive towards Sustainable Output in Ekiti State, Nigeria. OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 11(09), 25-36. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3286491
• Ammaini, A. A. (2012). An Investigation into the Relationship between Agricultural Production and Formal Credit Supply in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 2(1), 46-52. DOI: 10.5923/j.ijaf.20120201.08.
• Asekome M., and Ikoje, S. (2018). An Empirical Investigation on Impact of Interest Rates on Agricultural Investment in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Business, 1(1), 71-82. DOI:10.31014/aior.1992.01.01.7
• Asom, S. T., Ewuruje, A., Ijirshar, V. U., and Ogoda, S. I. (2023). Impact of informal credit on output of small scale farmers in Nigeria. Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, 27, 38-57. doi.org/10.47743/jopafl-2023-27-03.
• Assogba, P. N., Kokoye, S. E., Yegbemey, R. N., Djenontin, J. A., Tassou, Z., Pardoe, J., and Yabi, J. A. (2017). Determinants of credit access by smallholder farmers in North-East Benin. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 9(8), 210-216. DOI: 10.5897/JDAE2017.0814.
• Awotide, B. A., Abdoulaye, T., Alene, A., and Manyong, V. M. (2015). Impact of Access to Credit on Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Smallholder Cassava Farmers in Nigeria. A Contributed paper Prepared for Oral Presentation at the International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) Milan, Italy August 9-14, 2015.
• Balana, B. B., and Oyeyemi, M. A. (2022). Agricultural credit constraints in smallholder farming in developing countries: Evidence from Nigeria. World Development Sustainability, Volume 1. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2022.100012
• Beck, T., and Demirguc-Kunt, A. (2006). Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint. Journal of Banking &Finance, 30(11), 2931-2943.
• CBN (2022). Monetary, Credit, Foreign Trade and Exchange Guidelines for Fiscal Year 2022/2023. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2022/MPD/Credit%20Guidelines%202022%2023%2020.05.2022.pdf
• Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autorregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31.
• Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T. J., and Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
• Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
• Essien U. A. and Arene C. J. (2014). An analysis of access to credit markets and the performance of small scale agro-based enterprises in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 2(3), 105-120. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.186271
• Essien, U. A., U.C. Ibekwe, S. B. Akpan, N. G. Ben-Chendo (2016). Determinants of Informal credit Delinquency among Food Crop Farmers in rural Niger delta of Nigeria. Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 19(1), 50-55.
• Federal Ministry of Environment 2021. https://environment.gov.ng/. Retrieved on the 21stof May, 2021.
• Harris, R. and Sollis, R. (2003). Applied Time Series Modeling and Forecasting. Wiley, West Sussex.
• Ibe, S.O. (2014). The impact of banks’ and public sector’s financing activities on agricultural output in Nigeria. Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, 3(2), 129-143.
• Idiong, I. C., Ubon, A. E. and Sunday B. A., (2010). Determinants of frequency of Disbursement of Credit to Food Crop Farmers by informal lending groups in Akwa Ibom State of Nigeria: A Poisson regression approach. Nigerian Southeast Journal of Agricultural Economics and Extension, 9(1-2), 23-27.
• Iliyasu, A. S. (2019). An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Interest Rate on Agriculture in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 10(22), 106-112.
• Imoisi, A. A., Sogules, I. W., and Ekpeyoung, B. I. (2012). An Appraisal of Credit Facilities on Agricultural Output and Productivity in Nigeria: 1970-2010. British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 7(2), 24-33.
• Jeiyol, E. N., Sunday B. A., and Terver N. T. (2013). Gender Analysis of Access to Credit by Rural Small Scale Farmers in Benue State Nigeria. American International Journal of Social Science, 2(6), 70-78.
• Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
• Laurenceson, J. and Chai, J. C. H. (2003). Financial reforms and economic development in China. Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar., 1-76.
• Manyong, V. M., Ikpi, A., Olayemi, J. K., Yusuf, S. A., Omonona, B. T., Okaruwa, V. and Idachaba, F. S. (2005). Agriculture in Nigeria: Identifying Opportunities for Increased Commercialization and Investment. IITA, Ibadan, Nigeria, pp: 159.
• Mohsin, A. Q., Ahmad, S., and Anwar, A. (2011) Impact of Supervised Agricultural Credit on Farm Income in the Barani Areas of Punjab. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 31(2), 241-250.
• Nnamocha, P. N. and Eke, C. N. (2015). Bank Credit and Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1970 – 2013): An Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 10(2) 1-12.
• Ogbanje, E.C., Yahaya, M.A., and Kolawole, F. (2012), Effects of commercial banks, loan on agricultural GDP in Nigeria from 1981-2007. Production, Agriculture and Technology Nassarawa State University, Keff Journal, 8(2), 88-100.
• Ogbuabor, J. E. and Nwosu, C. A. (2017). The Impact of Deposit Money Bank’s Agricultural Credit on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: Evidence from an Error Correction Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 513-517.
• Ololade, R. A. and Olagunju, F. I. (2013). Determinants of access to credit among rural farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research Agriculture and Veterinary Sciences, 13(2), 17-22.
• Olomola, A. S. and Yaro, M. (2015). Commercial Banks’ Response to Government’s Financial Stimulus for Improved Agricultural Financing in Nigeria. NSSP Working Paper 28. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129209
• Olowofeso, O. E., Adeboye, A. A., Adejo, V. T., Bassey, K. J., and Abraham, O. (2017). Agricultural Sector Credit and Output Relationship in Nigeria: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 8(1), 101-122.
• Omolade, O. K. and Adepoju, A. O. (2019). Credit Constraints and Agricultural Productivity of Rural Households in Nigeria. Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies, 8(1), 1-15.
• Orok, A. B. and Ayim, S. A. (2017). The Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund on Agricultural Sector Development in Nigeria. International Review of Management and Business Research, 6(3), 1104-1116.
• Oyedele, G., Akintola, J., Rahji, M. A., &Omonona, B. T. (2009). Credit constrained condition of farm households and profitability of agricultural production in Nigerian agriculture. Agricultural Journal, 4, 192-201.
• Oyelade, A. O. (2019). Impact of commercial bank credit on agricultural output in Nigeria. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness, 5(1), 5-20.
• Pesaran, M. H. and Y. Shin (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In Storm, S. (eds), Econometrics and Economic Theory in 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
• Salisu, T. Q., and Alamu, O. K. (2023). Effect of Bank Lending on Agricultural Output in Nigeria From 1981–2021 (Auto-regressive Distribution Approach). Reserch Square, DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3235799/v.
• Shaibu, U. M. (2020). Sustainable development goal 2: assessment of Nigeria’s food security situation from 1960 – 2020. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 21 (4), 513-518.
• Udoka, C. O., Mbat, D. O. and Duke, S. B. (2016). The effect of commercial banks’ credit on agricultural production in Nigeria. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(1), 1-10.
• Umoren, A. A., Eyo, E. O., and Akpan, S. B. (2018). Investigating the nexus between Non-Performing Loans in the Nigerian Banking System and Lending to Micro-Small Medium Enterprises. International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review, 09(6), 20778-20791.
• Umoren. A. A., Edet J. Udoh and Akpan, S. B. (2016). Analysis of loan default among agricultural credit guarantee Scheme (ACGS) loan beneficiaries in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. African Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 2(2), 121-128.