PREDICTION OF TÜRKİYE’S R&D INPUTS AT REGIONAL LEVEL BY GM(1,1) MODEL

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 03 Sayı: 01, 38 - 48, 30.05.2025

Önder Belgin

https://doi.org/10.61138/bolgeselkalkinmadergisi.1652668

Öz

Research and development (R&D) is an important driver of economic growth, especially for developing countries seeking to increase their competitiveness. Assessing the performance of the R&D ecosystem in terms of various variables allows policy makers to identify best practices, improve strategies and better understand the dynamics at various stages and levels. In this study, Türkiye's regional R&D inputs (the share of R&D Human Resources and R&D Expenditures in Gross Domestic Product) are predicted for the period 2024-2026 with the GM(1,1) model, which is a method of grey system theory. In the study, historical data between 2010-2023 were used and the error rate of the prediction was evaluated according to the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. Accordingly, the GM(1,1) model provided more successful prediction values in the prediction of the R&D Human Resources variable. In the predictions made for the future years, it is seen that R&D Human Resources will increase in all regions in the period 2024-2026, and the Share of R&D Expenditures in Gross Domestic Product will increase except for the TRC region. This study is the first study in Türkiye to estimate the level of R&D inputs at regional level.

Anahtar Kelimeler

R&D and innovation , Grey system theory , Prediction , Regional studies

TÜRKİYE’NİN BÖLGESEL DÜZEYDE AR-GE GİRDİLERİNİN GM(1,1) MODELİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

Öz

Araştırma ve geliştirme (Ar-Ge), özellikle rekabet güçlerini artırmak isteyen gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ekonomik büyümenin önemli bir itici gücüdür. Ar-Ge ekosistemin çeşitli değişkenler bakımından performansının değerlendirilmesi, politika yapıcıların en iyi uygulamaları belirlemelerine, stratejileri iyileştirmelerine ve çeşitli aşamalar ve seviyelerdeki dinamikleri daha iyi anlamalarına olanak tanır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin bölgesel düzeyde Ar-Ge girdilerinin (Ar-Ge İnsan Kaynağı ve Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıladaki Payı) gri sistem teorisinin bir yöntemi olan GM(1,1) modeli ile 2024-2026 dönemi için tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 2010-2023 yılları arasındaki geçmiş veriler kullanılmış ve tahminin hata oranı Ortalama Mutlak Yüzdesel Hata (Mean Absolute Percentage Error-MAPE) değerine göre değerlendirilmiştir. Buna göre, GM(1,1) modeli Ar-Ge İnsan Kaynağı değişkenin tahmininde daha başarılı tahmin değerleri sağlamıştır. Gelecek yıllara ilişkin yapılan tahminlerde Ar-Ge İnsan Kaynağının 2024-2026 döneminde tüm bölgelerde artacağı, Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıladaki Payının TRC bölgesi haricinde artış göstereceği görülmüştür. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de bölgesel düzeyde Ar-Ge girdilerinin düzeyinin tahmin edilmesine ilişkin ilk çalışma olma özelliğini taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ar-Ge ve yenilik , Gri sistem teorisi , Tahmin , Bölgesel çalışmalar

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