Seasonal Variation of PM₂.₅ Concentrations in Eastern Anatolia and Comparison with WHO/EU Air Quality Thresholds: CAMS EAC4 Reanalysis (2003–2024)

Öz

The lack of PM2.5 monitoring infrastructure in Eastern Anatolia (Türkiye) limits objective regional assessment of fine particulate matter dynamics. This study uses CAMS EAC4 reanalysis data to examine seasonal and temporal variation of PM2.5 concentrations and comparison with WHO 2021 and EU air quality thresholds for the period 2003–2024. The regional annual mean PM2.5 over the 22-year period was 16.43 µg/m³, which is 3.29 times the WHO 2021 annual guideline of 5 µg/m³. Monthly climatology peaks in April at 23.46 µg/m³, with the spring seasonal mean (22.17 µg/m³) markedly exceeding other seasons, in a pattern consistent with North African and Middle Eastern desert dust transport. Winter recorded the lowest seasonal mean (13.50 µg/m³), contrary to conventional expectations. Mann-Kendall trend tests detected no statistically significant trend at annual or seasonal scale (all P>0.05). Annual mean PM2.5 exceeded both the WHO annual guideline and the EU 2030 annual limit value (10 µg/m³) in all 22 years. At daily scale, the WHO 15 µg/m³ guideline was exceeded on an average of 165 days/year and the EU 2030 daily limit value (25 µg/m³) on 45 days/year. Reaching the WHO guideline requires approximately a 69% reduction in the period mean, while the EU 2030 limit value requires 39%. The absence of a binding national PM2.5 limit in Türkiye represents a critical policy gap for regional air quality management.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CAMS EAC4 reanalysis
• Eastern Anatolia
• Seasonal variation
• Mann-Kendall trend test
• Air quality thresholds
• Desert dust transport

Destekleyen Kurum

Hakkari University

Proje Numarası

FM19BAP

Doğu Anadolu'da PM₂.₅ Konsantrasyonlarının Mevsimsel Değişimi ve WHO/AB Hava Kalitesi Eşikleriyle Karşılaştırılması: CAMS EAC4 Yeniden Analizi (2003–2024)

Öz

Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nde PM2.5 izleme altyapısının yetersizliği, bölgesel ince partikül madde dinamiklerinin değerlendirilmesini güçleştirmektedir. Bu çalışmada Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) EAC4 yeniden analiz verisi kullanılarak 2003–2024 dönemine ait PM2.5 konsantrasyonlarının mevsimsel değişimi ile WHO 2021 ve AB hava kalitesi eşikleriyle karşılaştırılmıştır. Yirmi iki yıllık dönem boyunca bölgesel yıllık ortalama PM2.5 değeri 16,43 µg/m³ olup WHO 2021 yıllık kılavuz değerinin (5 µg/m³) 3,29 katıdır. Aylık klimatoloji Nisan’da 23,46 µg/m³ zirve değeriyle belirgin bir mevsimsel döngü ortaya koymakta; İlkbahar ortalaması (22,17 µg/m³) diğer mevsimleri geride bırakmaktadır. Bu örüntü Kuzey Afrika ve Orta Doğu kökenli çöl tozu taşınımıyla tutarlıdır. Kış mevsimi 13,50 µg/m³ ile beklentilerin aksine yıl içindeki en düşük dönem olmuştur. Mann-Kendall trend testi yıllık ve mevsimsel serilerin hiçbirinde istatistiksel anlamlı eğilim saptamamıştır (tüm p>0,05). İncelenen 22 yılın tamamında yıllık değerler hem WHO yıllık kılavuzunu hem de AB 2030 yıllık limit değerini (10 µg/m³) aşmıştır. Günlük ölçekte WHO 15 µg/m³ kılavuz değeri ortalama 165 gün/yıl, AB 2030 günlük 25 µg/m³ limit değeri ise ortalama 45 gün/yıl aşılmıştır. WHO kılavuzuna ulaşmak için dönem ortalamasında %69, AB 2030 limit değerine ulaşmak için %39 azaltma gerekmektedir. Türkiye’de PM2.5 için bağlayıcı ulusal limit değer bulunmaması bölgesel hava kalitesi yönetiminde kritik bir politika boşluğunu sürdürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CAMS EAC4 yeniden analiz
• Doğu Anadolu
• Mevsimsel değişim
• Mann-Kendall trend testi
• Hava kalitesi eşikleri
• Çöl tozu taşınımı

Destekleyen Kurum

Hakkari Üniversitesi

Proje Numarası

FM19BAP

Etik Beyan

Bu araştırmada hayvanlar ve insanlar üzerinde herhangi bir çalışma yapılmadığı için etik kurul onayı alınmamıştır.

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, Hakkari Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon Ofisi tarafından desteklenmiştir (Proje No: FM19BAP).

Kaynakça

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