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Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 5, 1460 - 1467, 15.09.2025
https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1654579

Öz

The Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is an essential metric in customer relationship management (CRM), allowing companies to identify valuable customers and refine their advertising strategies. Traditional customer lifetime value prediction methods, including regression and machine learning techniques, frequently depend on accurate and predictable input data, making them less effective at capturing the inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in customer behavior. This research presents a fuzzy logic-based Customer Lifetime Value prediction model that integrates Recency, Frequency, and Monetary Value (RFM) as essential input factors. The proposed approach utilizes fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy inference systems (FIS), enabling consumers to possess partial membership in different CLV categories, hence offering a more adaptable and comprehensible framework for CLV calculation. A rule-based IF-THEN fuzzy system is established to categorize clients into various CLV segments, and defuzzification methods are employed to derive a precise CLV score. Experimental results indicate that the fuzzy logic model adeptly manages uncertainty and imprecision, outperforming traditional hard-segmentation methods by providing a continuous and adaptable strategy for CLV prediction. This research underscores the benefits of fuzzy logic in customer analytics, offering enterprises an easy and flexible instrument for customer segmentation, retention strategies, and revenue optimization.

Etik Beyan

Ethics committee approval was not required for this study because of there was no study on animals or humans.

Kaynakça

  • AboElHamd E, Abdel-Basset M, Shamma H M, Saleh M, El-Khodary I. 2021. Modeling Customer Lifetime Value Under Uncertain Environment. Neutrosophic Sets Syst, 39(1): 2.
  • Aeron H, Kumar A, Janakiraman M. 2010. Application of data mining techniques for customer lifetime value parameters: a review. Int J Bus Inf Syst, 6(4): 514-529.
  • Asadi Ejgerdi N, Kazerooni M. 2024. A stacked ensemble learning method for customer lifetime value prediction. Kybernetes, 53(7): 2342-2360.
  • Bauer J, Jannach D. 2021. Improved customer lifetime value prediction with sequence-to-sequence learning and feature-based models. ACM Trans Knowl Discov Data, 15(5): 1-37.
  • Breiman L. 2001. Random forests. Mach Learn, 45: 5-32.
  • Burelli P. 2019. Predicting customer lifetime value in free-to-play games. Data Analytics Applications in Gaming and Entertainment, Auerbach Publications, Boca Raton, FL, USA, pp: 79-107.
  • Chen S. 2018. Estimating customer lifetime value using machine learning techniques. Data Mining. IntechOpen, London, UK, pp: 17-34.
  • Chen T, Guestrin C. 2016. Xgboost: A scalable tree boosting system, Proc 22nd ACM SIGKDD Int Conf Knowl Discov Data Min, San Francisco, August 13-17, 2016, USA, pp: 785-794.
  • Cheng C J, Chiu S W, Cheng C B, Wu J Y. 2012. Customer lifetime value prediction by a Markov chain based data mining model: Application to an auto repair and maintenance company in Taiwan. Scientia Iranica, 19(3): 849-855.
  • Dalar AZ, Egrioglu E. 2025. Blending traditional and novel techniques: Hybrid type-1 fuzzy functions for forecasting. Eng Appl Artif Intell, 148: 110445.
  • Ekinci Y, Ülengin F, Uray N, Ülengin B. 2014. Analysis of customer lifetime value and marketing expenditure decisions through a Markovian-based model. Eur J Oper Res, 237(1): 278-288.
  • Haddadi AM, Hamidi H. 2025. A Hybrid Model for Improving Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Stacking Ensemble Learning Algorithm. Comput Hum Behav Rep, 100616, pp: 100616.
  • Hızıroğlu A, Sisci M, Cebeci H I, Seymen Ö F. 2018. An empirical assessment of customer lifetime value models within data mining. Ankara Türkiye, pp: 15-26.
  • Jang J S. 1993. ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern, 23(3): 665-685.
  • Kumari D A, Siddiqui M S, Dorbala R, Megala R, Rao K T V, Reddy N S. 2024. Deep learning models for customer lifetime value prediction in E-commerce, Proc 5th Int Conf Recent Trends Comput Sci Technol (ICRTCST), Chennai, April 2024, India, pp: 227-232.
  • McCarthy D, Fader P, Hardie B. 2016. V (CLV): Examining variance in models of customer lifetime value. SSRN, Available online: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2739475 (accessed date: September 1, 2024).
  • Marín Díaz G. 2025. A Fuzzy-XAI Framework for Customer Segmentation and Risk Detection: Integrating RFM, 2-Tuple Modeling, and Strategic Scoring. Mathematics, 13: 2141.
  • Mzoughia MB, Limam M. 2015. An improved customer lifetime value model based on Markov chain. Appl Stoch Models Bus Ind, 31(4): 528-535.
  • Prokhorenkova L, Gusev G, Vorobev A, Dorogush AV, Gulin A. 2018. CatBoost: unbiased boosting with categorical features. Adv Neural Inf Process Syst, 31: 6638-6648.
  • Pollak Z. 2021. Predicting Customer Lifetime Values—e-commerce use case. arXiv preprint arXiv:2102.05771 (accessed date: September 1, 2024).
  • Rajabi M, Sadeghizadeh H, Mola-Amini Z, Ahmadyrad N. 2019. Hybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for diagnosing the liver disorders. arXiv preprint arXiv:1910.12952 (accessed date: September 4, 2024).
  • Sun Y, Liu H, Gao Y. 2023. Research on customer lifetime value based on machine learning algorithms and customer relationship management analysis model. Heliyon, 9(2): e13432.
  • Tekin AT, Kaya T, Cebi F. 2022. Customer lifetime value prediction for gaming industry: fuzzy clustering based approach. J Intell Fuzzy Syst, 42(1): 87-96.
  • Todupunuri A. 2024. Develop Machine Learning Models to Predict Customer Lifetime Value for Banking Customers, Helping Banks Optimize Services. Int J All Res Educ Sci Methods, 12(10): 10-56025.
  • Tsai CF, Hu Y H, Hung CS, Hsu YF. 2013. A comparative study of hybrid machine learning techniques for customer lifetime value prediction. Kybernetes, 42(3): 357-370.
  • Tudoran AA, Thomsen C H, Thomasen S. 2024. Understanding consumer behavior during and after a Pandemic: Implications for customer lifetime value prediction models. J Bus Res, 174: 114527.
  • Zadeh LA. 1965. Fuzzy sets. Inf Control, 8(3): 338-353.
  • Zadeh LA. 1975. The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning-III. Inf Sci, 9(1): 43-80.
  • Zadeh LA. 1994. Soft computing and fuzzy logic. IEEE Softw, 11(6): 48-56.

Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 5, 1460 - 1467, 15.09.2025
https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1654579

Öz

The Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is an essential metric in customer relationship management (CRM), allowing companies to identify valuable customers and refine their advertising strategies. Traditional customer lifetime value prediction methods, including regression and machine learning techniques, frequently depend on accurate and predictable input data, making them less effective at capturing the inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in customer behavior. This research presents a fuzzy logic-based Customer Lifetime Value prediction model that integrates Recency, Frequency, and Monetary Value (RFM) as essential input factors. The proposed approach utilizes fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy inference systems (FIS), enabling consumers to possess partial membership in different CLV categories, hence offering a more adaptable and comprehensible framework for CLV calculation. A rule-based IF-THEN fuzzy system is established to categorize clients into various CLV segments, and defuzzification methods are employed to derive a precise CLV score. Experimental results indicate that the fuzzy logic model adeptly manages uncertainty and imprecision, outperforming traditional hard-segmentation methods by providing a continuous and adaptable strategy for CLV prediction. This research underscores the benefits of fuzzy logic in customer analytics, offering enterprises an easy and flexible instrument for customer segmentation, retention strategies, and revenue optimization.

Etik Beyan

Ethics committee approval was not required for this study because of there was no study on animals or humans.

Kaynakça

  • AboElHamd E, Abdel-Basset M, Shamma H M, Saleh M, El-Khodary I. 2021. Modeling Customer Lifetime Value Under Uncertain Environment. Neutrosophic Sets Syst, 39(1): 2.
  • Aeron H, Kumar A, Janakiraman M. 2010. Application of data mining techniques for customer lifetime value parameters: a review. Int J Bus Inf Syst, 6(4): 514-529.
  • Asadi Ejgerdi N, Kazerooni M. 2024. A stacked ensemble learning method for customer lifetime value prediction. Kybernetes, 53(7): 2342-2360.
  • Bauer J, Jannach D. 2021. Improved customer lifetime value prediction with sequence-to-sequence learning and feature-based models. ACM Trans Knowl Discov Data, 15(5): 1-37.
  • Breiman L. 2001. Random forests. Mach Learn, 45: 5-32.
  • Burelli P. 2019. Predicting customer lifetime value in free-to-play games. Data Analytics Applications in Gaming and Entertainment, Auerbach Publications, Boca Raton, FL, USA, pp: 79-107.
  • Chen S. 2018. Estimating customer lifetime value using machine learning techniques. Data Mining. IntechOpen, London, UK, pp: 17-34.
  • Chen T, Guestrin C. 2016. Xgboost: A scalable tree boosting system, Proc 22nd ACM SIGKDD Int Conf Knowl Discov Data Min, San Francisco, August 13-17, 2016, USA, pp: 785-794.
  • Cheng C J, Chiu S W, Cheng C B, Wu J Y. 2012. Customer lifetime value prediction by a Markov chain based data mining model: Application to an auto repair and maintenance company in Taiwan. Scientia Iranica, 19(3): 849-855.
  • Dalar AZ, Egrioglu E. 2025. Blending traditional and novel techniques: Hybrid type-1 fuzzy functions for forecasting. Eng Appl Artif Intell, 148: 110445.
  • Ekinci Y, Ülengin F, Uray N, Ülengin B. 2014. Analysis of customer lifetime value and marketing expenditure decisions through a Markovian-based model. Eur J Oper Res, 237(1): 278-288.
  • Haddadi AM, Hamidi H. 2025. A Hybrid Model for Improving Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Stacking Ensemble Learning Algorithm. Comput Hum Behav Rep, 100616, pp: 100616.
  • Hızıroğlu A, Sisci M, Cebeci H I, Seymen Ö F. 2018. An empirical assessment of customer lifetime value models within data mining. Ankara Türkiye, pp: 15-26.
  • Jang J S. 1993. ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern, 23(3): 665-685.
  • Kumari D A, Siddiqui M S, Dorbala R, Megala R, Rao K T V, Reddy N S. 2024. Deep learning models for customer lifetime value prediction in E-commerce, Proc 5th Int Conf Recent Trends Comput Sci Technol (ICRTCST), Chennai, April 2024, India, pp: 227-232.
  • McCarthy D, Fader P, Hardie B. 2016. V (CLV): Examining variance in models of customer lifetime value. SSRN, Available online: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2739475 (accessed date: September 1, 2024).
  • Marín Díaz G. 2025. A Fuzzy-XAI Framework for Customer Segmentation and Risk Detection: Integrating RFM, 2-Tuple Modeling, and Strategic Scoring. Mathematics, 13: 2141.
  • Mzoughia MB, Limam M. 2015. An improved customer lifetime value model based on Markov chain. Appl Stoch Models Bus Ind, 31(4): 528-535.
  • Prokhorenkova L, Gusev G, Vorobev A, Dorogush AV, Gulin A. 2018. CatBoost: unbiased boosting with categorical features. Adv Neural Inf Process Syst, 31: 6638-6648.
  • Pollak Z. 2021. Predicting Customer Lifetime Values—e-commerce use case. arXiv preprint arXiv:2102.05771 (accessed date: September 1, 2024).
  • Rajabi M, Sadeghizadeh H, Mola-Amini Z, Ahmadyrad N. 2019. Hybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for diagnosing the liver disorders. arXiv preprint arXiv:1910.12952 (accessed date: September 4, 2024).
  • Sun Y, Liu H, Gao Y. 2023. Research on customer lifetime value based on machine learning algorithms and customer relationship management analysis model. Heliyon, 9(2): e13432.
  • Tekin AT, Kaya T, Cebi F. 2022. Customer lifetime value prediction for gaming industry: fuzzy clustering based approach. J Intell Fuzzy Syst, 42(1): 87-96.
  • Todupunuri A. 2024. Develop Machine Learning Models to Predict Customer Lifetime Value for Banking Customers, Helping Banks Optimize Services. Int J All Res Educ Sci Methods, 12(10): 10-56025.
  • Tsai CF, Hu Y H, Hung CS, Hsu YF. 2013. A comparative study of hybrid machine learning techniques for customer lifetime value prediction. Kybernetes, 42(3): 357-370.
  • Tudoran AA, Thomsen C H, Thomasen S. 2024. Understanding consumer behavior during and after a Pandemic: Implications for customer lifetime value prediction models. J Bus Res, 174: 114527.
  • Zadeh LA. 1965. Fuzzy sets. Inf Control, 8(3): 338-353.
  • Zadeh LA. 1975. The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning-III. Inf Sci, 9(1): 43-80.
  • Zadeh LA. 1994. Soft computing and fuzzy logic. IEEE Softw, 11(6): 48-56.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Endüstri Mühendisliği
Bölüm Research Articles
Yazarlar

Ahmet Tezcan Tekin 0000-0002-1792-6622

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 10 Eylül 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Eylül 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 10 Mart 2025
Kabul Tarihi 6 Ağustos 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 5

Kaynak Göster

APA Tekin, A. T. (2025). Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science, 8(5), 1460-1467. https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1654579
AMA Tekin AT. Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach. BSJ Eng. Sci. Eylül 2025;8(5):1460-1467. doi:10.34248/bsengineering.1654579
Chicago Tekin, Ahmet Tezcan. “Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach”. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science 8, sy. 5 (Eylül 2025): 1460-67. https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1654579.
EndNote Tekin AT (01 Eylül 2025) Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science 8 5 1460–1467.
IEEE A. T. Tekin, “Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach”, BSJ Eng. Sci., c. 8, sy. 5, ss. 1460–1467, 2025, doi: 10.34248/bsengineering.1654579.
ISNAD Tekin, Ahmet Tezcan. “Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach”. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science 8/5 (Eylül2025), 1460-1467. https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1654579.
JAMA Tekin AT. Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach. BSJ Eng. Sci. 2025;8:1460–1467.
MLA Tekin, Ahmet Tezcan. “Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach”. Black Sea Journal of Engineering and Science, c. 8, sy. 5, 2025, ss. 1460-7, doi:10.34248/bsengineering.1654579.
Vancouver Tekin AT. Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Mobile Gaming Industry: Fuzzy Logic Approach. BSJ Eng. Sci. 2025;8(5):1460-7.

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