Türkiye'nin 5G Yayılımının Verimlilik Analizi ve Stratejik Çıkarımları

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki geniş bant mobil ağ geçişlerinin operatörlere iktisadi etkisini incelemekte ve özellikle LTE'den çıkarılan kanıta dayalı dersleri, yaklaşan 5G yayılımı için stratejik ve finansal planlamaya bilgi sağlamak üzere kullanmayı hedeflemektedir. Altyapı yatırımı, operatör verimliliği ve makroekonomik kısıtlar arasındaki ilişkiyi nicel olarak değerlendirerek uygulanabilir politika önerileri formüle etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma, yatırım verimlilik oranını hesaplamak ve analiz etmek için Türkiye’deki mobil şebeke operatörlerine ait geçmiş panel veri setini kullanmaktadır. Bu nicel analiz, 5G sürecini düzenleyen tarihsel veriler ve düzenleyici çerçevenin nitel bir incelemesi ile desteklenmektedir. Analiz, iki kritik örüntüyü ortaya koymaktadır. İlk olarak, LTE yayılımı, operatör sermaye verimliliğinin uygulama sonrasında yaklaşık %30 artmasıyla önemli bir verimlilik kazancı sağlamıştır. İkinci olarak, bu verimlilik finansman maliyetlerine karşı oldukça hassastır. Yüksek yerel faiz oranları, yatırım verimliliği üzerinde güçlü bir baskı oluşturmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, 5G benzer verimlilik kazançları potansiyeli taşısa da, finansal fizibilitesi mevcut makroekonomik koşullar altında ciddi şekilde zorlanmaktadır. Bu makale, nicel operatör düzeyindeki verimlilik ölçütlerini Türkiye'nin teknolojik egemenliğe yönelik özel politika hedefleriyle birleştiren yeni ve bütünleşik bir analiz sunmaktadır. Telekom yatırımları üzerindeki yüksek faiz oranlarının neden olduğu finansal baskıyı ölçmekte ve bütüncül bir politika çerçevesi önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• 5G Yayılımı
• Yatırım Verimliliği
• Telekomünikasyon Politikası
• Spektrum İhalesi

A Productivity Analysis and Strategic Implications of Türkiye's 5G Deployment

Öz

This study examines the economic impact of broadband mobile network transitions on operators in Türkiye, with a specific focus on drawing evidence-based lessons from LTE to inform the strategic and financial planning for the upcoming 5G deployment. It aims to quantitatively assess the relationship between infrastructure investment, operator efficiency, and macroeconomic constraints to formulate actionable policy recommendations. The research employs a historical panel dataset of Turkish mobile network operators (MNOs) to calculate and analyze the investment efficiency ratio. This quantitative analysis is complemented by a qualitative review of historical data and the regulatory framework governing the 5G process. The analysis reveals two critical patterns. First, LTE deployment generated significant efficiency gains, with operator capital productivity increasing by approximately 30% post-implementation. Second, this productivity is highly sensitive to financing costs. High domestic interest rates exert strong downward pressure on investment efficiency. Consequently, while 5G holds similar potential for productivity gains, its financial viability is severely challenged under current macroeconomic conditions. This paper provides a novel, integrated analysis that combines quantitative operator-level efficiency metrics with Türkiye's specific policy ambitions for technological sovereignty. It uniquely quantifies the financial friction caused by high interest rates on telecom investments and proposes a holistic policy framework.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• 5G Deployment
• Investment Efficiency
• Telecommunications Policy
• Spectrum Auction

Kaynakça

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