Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Turizm ve Borsa Üzerindeki Etkisi: BRIC Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

Bu çalışma, BRIC ülkelerinde (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan ve Çin) makroekonomik değişkenlerin turizm gelirleri ve hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkilerini 1995-2020 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan makroekonomik değişkenler; reel efektif döviz kuru, enflasyon, gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYH) ve ihracattır. Panel ARDL yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilen analizde, hem kısa hem de uzun dönem ilişkiler ele alınmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, enflasyonun borsa getirilerini negatif yönde etkilediğini, buna karşılık GSYH'nin pozitif bir etkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Turizm gelirleri açısından ise, enflasyonun pozitif, GSYH'nin ise negatif etkisi söz konusudur. Yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde yatırımcıların dövize yönelmesi, borsa getirilerini azaltmaktadır. Öte yandan, ekonomik büyüme dönemlerinde yatırımcı güveni artmakta ve piyasa performansı yükselmektedir. Turizm tarafında ise, enflasyon artışı yabancı turist harcamalarını artırabilirken, ekonomik refah artışı ve kur değerlenmesi yabancı turist talebini azaltabilmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin her iki sektörde de belirleyici olduğunu ve bu nedenle politika yapıcıların kısa ve uzun vadeli farklı stratejiler geliştirmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Araştırma, BRIC ülkelerine özgü karşılaştırmalı makroekonomik değerlendirmeleriyle literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Makroekonomik Değişkenler
• Turizm Gelirleri
• Borsa Getirileri

The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Tourism and Stock Markets: An Application to BRIC Countries

Öz

This study investigates the impacts of macroeconomic variables on tourism revenues and stock market returns in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) using annual data from 1995 to 2020. The selected variables include the real effective exchange rate, inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), and exports. By employing the Panel ARDL methodology, the research examines both short-run and long-run dynamics between the variables. The findings indicate that inflation negatively affects stock market returns while GDP has a positive effect. On the tourism side, inflation shows a positive impact, whereas GDP negatively affects tourism revenues. The results suggest that during high inflation periods, investors prefer foreign currency-based investments, reducing stock returns. Conversely, economic growth increases investor confidence and enhances market performance. For tourism, rising inflation may increase tourist spending due to favorable exchange rates, while economic growth may reduce foreign tourist inflow due to rising domestic wealth and currency appreciation. The study emphasizes that inflation and economic growth play pivotal roles in shaping both stock markets and tourism sectors, and different short and long-term impacts necessitate distinct strategies for policy makers. This research contributes to the literature by presenting comparative macroeconomic insights specific to BRIC nations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Macroeconomic Variables
• Tourism Revenues
• Stock Market Returns

Kaynakça

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